Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[chrisnnavarre]

15N at 75W, and 17N at 80W those are the coordinates I'm awaiting for alerts to go up on coasts of the GOM.

[jhamps10]

15N at 75W, and 17N at 80W those are the coordinates I'm awaiting for alerts to go up on coasts of the GOM.

which it will need to go a bit more NW to hit 15/75 right now, however it is still going to be north of the next forecast point from the 11AM advisory (72.9/13.8) it seems with it going WNW. But it won't miss by much at all though.

[PhillyWX]

Does anyone have a link to the SLP anomalies in this region. A 963 mb cane is usually a strong 2/borderline 3 but it has 125 mph winds so I'm curious if the pressures are generally higher than normal right now in this specific region.

[miamicanes177]

Based on current rapid intensification trends, a category 5 hurricane by 10pm tonight can not be ruled out.

[Nimbus]

Chrisnnavarre wrote:

15N at 75W, and 17N at 80W those are the coordinates I'm awaiting for alerts to go up on coasts of the GOM

Should cross 15N before 77W if it wants to miss the Honduras.

Wxman57 caught a westerly run earlier and Felix could stumble west again especially when it goes through its ERC. The small eye it has now can only move so much air from the surface up through to the outflow. After the ERC he will probably expand his wind fields.

[wxman57]

6-hour movement 279.2 deg. at 17.7 kts. Still moving west, not WNW. Right on previous NHC track but a little faster. If the track remains 279.2 deg it would clip northern Honduras.

[Brent]

The XTRAP motion on the 18z models would have it missing Honduras and right on the 11am NHC track...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

[miamicanes177]

Still moving west, not WNW. Right on previous NHC track but a little faster. If the track remains 279.2 deg it would clip northern Honduras.

From NHC forecaster Pasch at 1pm cst:

REPEATING THE 200 PM AST POSITION...13.4 N...71.2 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH.

[MiamiensisWx]

The eye is definitely clearing out, and you can observe a nice stadium effect. Additionally, the inflow channel has been providing maximum support (from the eastern, southern, and western quadrants) to the "engine" of Felix. Undoubtedly, the inner core is tightening up (per reconnaissance data). The relatively high central pressure likely reflects the small size of the cyclone. I would not be surprised if the next pass through the eyewall and center reveals higher flight-level winds and a pressure below 964 mbar.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Upper-level support is ideal for further intensification. I think the main inhibitive factor will be an impending ERC. The radiating "spoke" thunderstorm activity around the core indicates an imminent strengthening phase. I strongly suspect we will see a Category 4 hurricane by 5 p.m. EDT, and Felix could definitely reach 120 kts within the next 24 hours.

[jhamps10]

The XTRAP motion on the 18z models would have it missing Honduras and right on the 11am NHC track...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

what did XTRAP have for 12z?

this is important, as the xtrap only goes dead ahead of current movements. and if xtrap had it hitting honduras on 12z, then we know that it's gone a bit more WNW. at least according to the model.

[HURAKAN]

Just impressive:

[Derek Ortt]

EWRC means a larger storm; thus, potentially 10 inches of additional rain for Honduras

a small cat 5 is far better than a large cat 3 or 4 in this instance

[Brent]

The XTRAP motion on the 18z models would have it missing Honduras and right on the 11am NHC track...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

what did XTRAP have for 12z?

this is important, as the xtrap only goes dead ahead of current movements. and if xtrap had it hitting honduras on 12z, then we know that it's gone a bit more WNW. at least according to the model.

I believe it did because I looked at it. Wish I had saved the image.

Anyway, on topic, I expect a big pressure drop on the next eye pass.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The XTRAP motion on the 18z models would have it missing Honduras and right on the 11am NHC track...

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_06.gif

what did XTRAP have for 12z?

this is important, as the xtrap only goes dead ahead of current movements. and if xtrap had it hitting honduras on 12z, then we know that it's gone a bit more WNW. at least according to the model.

I believe it did because I looked at it. Wish I had saved the image.

Anyway, on topic, I expect a big pressure drop on the next eye pass.

Yes, the 12z XTRAP was much further south. Here is an image I saved which included it...

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... orm_06.gif

[x-y-no]

Upper-level support is ideal for further intensification. I think the main inhibitive factor will be an impending ERC.

Based on what we've seen from recon so far, I don't think any ERC is imminent. It's a nice smooth wind profile with no secondary peak that I've noticed. I think we're looking at continued intensification through this evening at least.

[chris_fit]

WXMAN57.. can you post a nice close up of that eye for us? Pretty Please

[jhamps10]

what did XTRAP have for 12z?

this is important, as the xtrap only goes dead ahead of current movements. and if xtrap had it hitting honduras on 12z, then we know that it's gone a bit more WNW. at least according to the model.

I believe it did because I looked at it. Wish I had saved the image.

Anyway, on topic, I expect a big pressure drop on the next eye pass.

Yes, the 12z XTRAP was much further south. Here is an image I saved which included it...

http://i43.photobucket.com/albums/e371/ ... orm_06.gif

thanks, I'm drawing up a map with the 12 and 18z xtrap's. big difference, lets just say that.

will have that up in a few minutes on the model thread.

[Texashawk]

It seems like the models as a whole are shifting more north - on the previous model track consensus, the majority were going though Belize or just north, now on the latest it seems that just under half take it into Quintana Roo... however there is not as pronounced a northwest curve in these models.

Hmm...

BTW, what is the CLP5? It seems to be a consistent outlier north...

[x-y-no]

Does anyone have a link to the SLP anomalies in this region. A 963 mb cane is usually a strong 2/borderline 3 but it has 125 mph winds so I'm curious if the pressures are generally higher than normal right now in this specific region.

I think this is more a function of Felix's rather small size. We should see the pressure drop as it enlarges over the coming day.

[x-y-no]

Hmm...

BTW, what is the CLP5? It seems to be a consistent outlier north...

CLP5 is just the climatological mean - not a model and generally not to be considered other than for evaluating the performance of the models.