Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

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jhamps10

#701 Postby jhamps10 » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:40 pm

I have the xtrap map up on the model thread now, real interesting to look at.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#702 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:49 pm

Now, a major hurricane. Felix strengthened faster thean Dean. I would not be suprised if Felix becomes a 4 as easly as tonight. In fact, I think Felix has a chance of becoming a 5 because it is not a really large hurricane. I notice computer models that Dean turns somewhat northwest in BOC. Something that Texas should keep an eye on.
Last edited by Ptarmigan on Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#703 Postby HURAKAN » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:51 pm

02/1745 UTC 13.5N 71.1W T6.0/6.0 FELIX -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak: 115 kts
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#704 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:53 pm

I did a rough calculation of speed and direction from the last 7 hours based on eye location and SAT. At 0645 eastern time the storm was located at 13N-69W. At 1345 eastern time it was at 13.5N-71W. Using the good ole internet I calculated the distance as 134 miles at a heading of 285 deg. Based on 7 hours of movement it is traveling at 19 mph.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#705 Postby Windspeed » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:54 pm

x-y-no wrote:
PhillyWX wrote:Does anyone have a link to the SLP anomalies in this region. A 963 mb cane is usually a strong 2/borderline 3 but it has 125 mph winds so I'm curious if the pressures are generally higher than normal right now in this specific region.


I think this is more a function of Felix's rather small size. We should see the pressure drop as it enlarges over the coming day.


Yes, Felix is a compact hurricane right now, therfore, the system can reach upper end wind speeds with pressures that are high end for what is typically measured. However, with time the core will expand out lowering pressures around the periphery of the system.

I looked at pressure around the region and they're running just a bit above normal background. The greater antilles are running between 1018 - 1022mb, 1018mb in Jamaica and 1020-1030mb in the interior Colombia and 1020mb over coastal Honduras. Overall, I would estimate that Felix is embedded in slightly higher background pressures than normal.

I would guess that without any EWRCs or structural changes to the core, expansion will be slow and steady through the night. Considering the environment and and size of the core are now, I would think this storm will be reach Cat 5 intensity the first time it falls below 930mb.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#706 Postby HollynLA » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:55 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-vis.html

Just wobble watching a bit (since I'm bored today) and look at that big NW wobble it just did.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#707 Postby jaxfladude » Sun Sep 02, 2007 1:59 pm

Central America/Yucatan has the big "Target" marked on it so far this year allbeit just two storms potentially Cat. 5 or at least of Cat 4 intensity at landfall, yikes....
Prayers for whomever gets Felix...
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#708 Postby N2FSU » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:00 pm

Here's a good WV loop showing what's ahead of Felix: http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12
Last edited by N2FSU on Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#709 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:00 pm

pressure has fallen about six MB in the last hour or so !!!
9544 +144 +134 035005 010


128kt FL EAST quad

185700 1334N 07118W 6971 02821 9683 +094 +094 151118 128 999 999 05
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Re:

#710 Postby wxman57 » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:02 pm

chris_fit wrote:WXMAN57.. can you post a nice close up of that eye for us? Pretty Please :) 8-)


Close enough or closer?

Image
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#711 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:03 pm

well on its way to CAT 5 .. before morning..
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Re: Re:

#712 Postby Brent » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:03 pm

wxman57 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:WXMAN57.. can you post a nice close up of that eye for us? Pretty Please :) 8-)


Close enough or closer?

Image


WOW... it looks amazing. :eek:
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Re: Re:

#713 Postby Ptarmigan » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:05 pm

wxman57 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:WXMAN57.. can you post a nice close up of that eye for us? Pretty Please :) 8-)


Close enough or closer?

Image


Getting close for sure. Impressive! :eek:
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Re: Re:

#714 Postby JonathanBelles » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:06 pm

Brent wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:WXMAN57.. can you post a nice close up of that eye for us? Pretty Please :) 8-)


Close enough or closer?
<Image>


WOW... it looks amazing. :eek:


WOW!!!! Does it get closer? I wish recon took pictures.
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#715 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:06 pm

Wow this thing is bombing...it has a somewhat similar appearance to Emily at cat 5 status, with lots of convective banding on the north side, and fanning on the south side. The only difference is that Felix is further south and has a higher strength potential
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Re: Hurricane FELIX:Caribbean-Discussions & Imagery 2 PM pag 34

#716 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:07 pm

Cool pic wxman57 - nice stadium effect. Does anyone have an eye diameter?
Last edited by ronjon on Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#717 Postby Tstormwatcher » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:08 pm

Nice closeup waxman57. Thanks
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#718 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:08 pm

Thank You WXMAN57. Perfect ;)

Just curious, how often do you get updated images? Say you wanted to make a 30 image loop, over how many minutes, hours, would it cover?
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#719 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:08 pm

185730 1335N 07117W 6966 02903 9794 +072 +072 150130 132 999 999 05


132kt FL nearing cat 4 if not there already

if you do 90% reduction thats 137mph at the surface
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Re:

#720 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 02, 2007 2:10 pm

Ptarmigan wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
chris_fit wrote:WXMAN57.. can you post a nice close up of that eye for us? Pretty Please :) 8-)


Close enough or closer?

Image


Getting close for sure. Impressive! :eek:

Felix's eyewall structure is INFINATELY better than Dean's. By the time Dean's eye was that clear, it was on the verge of category 5...this is so much better organized. I was never this impressed with Dean at 125mph, even if it did have lower pressure
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