Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[baitism]

It's possible the pressure hasn't been able to catch the winds. It should continue to drop.

Winds catch up to pressure, not the other way around.

[miamicanes177]

recon is NOT finding a WNW motion... and Wxman has a motion of 280

I know some here desperately want to be in this thing (they have never been in one)... but lets not spread the misinfo regarding this by saying it is moving north of where it really is

You are posting false information. The NHC is the authority and the official motion of Hurricane Felix is stated by forecaster Pasch of the NHC at 4pm.

NHC states:

Repeating the 500 PM EDT position...13.6 N...72.0 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 20 mph.

[Extremeweatherguy]

recon is NOT finding a WNW motion... and Wxman has a motion of 280

I know some here desperately want to be in this thing (they have never been in one)... but lets not spread the misinfo regarding this by saying it is moving north of where it really is

So are you implying that the NHC is giving us false information Derek? Why would the 5pm advisory say that it is "continuing" to move at 285˚ when it really isn't? That doesn't make much sense to me considering the NHC must be studying this system like a hawk, right?

[ronjon]

Dean hit a swamp in Mexico north of Chetumal

belize has far higher population

Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize

Derek, I agree with your warnings - you have been sounding the alarm bell now for two days. I haven't seen you this insistent since Katrina. This storm will probably be within 50 miles of the northern coast of Honduras. And the storm is forecast to slow down as the ridge weakens so this will be catastrophic for the Honduran people.

[miamicanes177]

Katrina and Rita almost crossed paths while both were Cat 5...

Yeh but making landfall as a 5 is hard in itself. For 2 to make landfall within 150miles or so of each other in a few weeks is crazy.

[hurricanefloyd5]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

the record for the largest drop n pressure is 100 mb in 24hours i think!!! can someone confimr that please????

[Eyewall]

I'll tell you something Mr. Ortt.. You may be educated but you are by no means more intelligent than the entire NHC.. If they say wnw then i would agree with them.

[CrazyC83]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

the record for the largest drop n pressure is 100 mb in 24hours i think!!! can someone confimr that please????

Wilma dropped from 975 to 882 in less than 24 hours.

[Eyewall]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

the record for the largest drop n pressure is 100 mb in 24hours i think!!! can someone confimr that please????

wilma.. lol close to 100mb in like 20-24 hrs

[wxmann_91]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

the record for the largest drop n pressure is 100 mb in 24hours i think!!! can someone confimr that please????

It is. STY Forrest (1983; WPAC) holds the record, with Wilma (2005; ATL) coming in at a close second w/ 98 mb/24 hr.

Felix will not even come close to the record. But it is deepening quite rapidly.

[Portastorm]

Dean hit a swamp in Mexico north of Chetumal

belize has far higher population

Still... it is incredible how most here do not seem to care or understand what is likely to happen to Honduras... they are focused right on that NHC center line (which may still be slightly to the north initially) into Belize

Derek, I think its more of the latter. I was assuming Felix would skim the northern coastline at worst ... and yes, Honduras would experience the full brunt. Is that northern coastline heavily populated?

OK, I did my own research. The northeastern part of Honduras is primarily what is called a lowland jungle (La Mosquitia) ... however, the three "departments" that cover the northern coastline have about 750,000 people living there, including an island chain north of the coast where some 43,000 people live. That's a lot of folks in harms way!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honduras

[Coredesat]

Indeed, ambient pressures are simply too high for Felix's pressure to go very low at this point.

[CrazyC83]

Felix will have gone from an TD to a Cat 4 in just over 36 hours. Does anyone know the record for this deepening? This is 1935 Labor Day stuff.

the record for the largest drop n pressure is 100 mb in 24hours i think!!! can someone confimr that please????

It is. STY Forrest (1983; WPAC) holds the record, with Wilma (2005; ATL) coming in at a close second w/ 98 mb/24 hr.

Felix will not even come close to the record. But it is deepening quite rapidly.

The ambient pressures in the area are quite high too, so Felix should not break any pressure records at this point unless the winds reach well past 200 mph...

[wxmann_91]

the record for the largest drop n pressure is 100 mb in 24hours i think!!! can someone confimr that please????

It is. STY Forrest (1983; WPAC) holds the record, with Wilma (2005; ATL) coming in at a close second w/ 98 mb/24 hr.

Felix will not even come close to the record. But it is deepening quite rapidly.

The ambient pressures in the area are quite high too, so Felix should not break any pressure records at this point unless the winds reach well past 200 mph...

That is correct... and that is partially the reason why the central pressure is so high relative to the winds right now.

I don't see this going below 910 mb, really.

[ConvergenceZone]

recon is NOT finding a WNW motion... and Wxman has a motion of 280

I know some here desperately want to be in this thing (they have never been in one)... but lets not spread the misinfo regarding this by saying it is moving north of where it really is

So are you implying that the NHC is giving us false information Derek? Why would the 5pm advisory say that it is "continuing" to move at 285˚ when it really isn't? That doesn't make much sense to me considering the NHC must be studying this system like a hawk, right?

What's scary is that based on their latest discussion, the NHC is MUCH less certain where this is going once it goes into the gulf...They seemed pretty certain with Dean in spite of the models, but with Felix, they comment that they have no clue how strong the ridge is going to be and whether it will continue west or not...They mention the models continue to forecast it moving west, but the NHC doesn't seem so confident in that... It will be a very interesting next few days that's for sure.

[CrazyC83]

That is correct... and that is partially the reason why the central pressure is so high relative to the winds right now.

I don't see this going below 910 mb, really.

It will probably still have a pressure in the 930s when it reaches Cat 5 (which it should)...

[fasterdisaster]

The northern coastline of Honduras was devastated by Hurricane Mitch which killed 18,000 people remember.(In no way am I implying that anywhere NEAR the same will happen with Felix, because the forward speed is too high for that to happen.)

[ronjon]

Anyone care to speculate on what effect a rapidly developing tropical cyclone off the GA/FL coast would have on the future path of Felix? I was on another site and a very knowledgeable poster indicated that this would seriously weaken the ridge that is currently steering Felix.

[Coredesat]

OK, I did my own research. The northeastern part of Honduras is primarily what is called a lowland jungle (La Mosquitia) ... however, the three "departments" that cover the northern coastline have about 750,000 people living there, including an island chain north of the coast where some 43,000 people live. That's a lot of folks in harms way!

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Honduras

Belize has a fairly low population compared to other countries; Belize City is the largest coastal city and has about 70,000 people.

The most heavily populated areas of Honduras are further inland, and Felix should pass to the north. No models take Felix near the higher density areas. The islands north of Honduras might possibly be affected, however.

[CrazyC83]

Anyone care to speculate on what effect a rapidly developing tropical cyclone off the GA/FL coast would have on the future path of Felix? I was on another site and a very knowledgeable poster indicated that this would seriously weaken the ridge that is currently steering Felix.

Too far north and east to really do anything...