Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[Coredesat]

Anyone care to speculate on what effect a rapidly developing tropical cyclone off the GA/FL coast would have on the future path of Felix? I was on another site and a very knowledgeable poster indicated that this would seriously weaken the ridge that is currently steering Felix.

Is this hypothetical? The satellite imagery doesn't seem to show anything like that at the moment. I'm not a met but I would think that Felix is way too far west in longitude for any system off the GA/FL coast to affect its motion.

[ronjon]

The northern coastline of Honduras was devastated by Hurricane Mitch which killed 18,000 people remember.(In no way am I implying that anywhere NEAR the same will happen with Felix, because the forward speed is too high for that to happen.)

Ah...Felix is progged to slow down as the ridge weakens from 48-72 hrs - right now it looks like as slow as 10 mph. Not as slow as Mitch but could be slow enough for lots of devastation from heavy rainfall and mudslides.

[HurricaneHunter914]

It seems that everytime the NHC, Felic grows one category higher. Maybe by 11 PM we'll have a Cat-5? No, I doubt it. It'll take probably a few more days for Felix to reach Cat-5. But Cat-5 or not, Felix is very impressive! I'm kinda happy that my middle name is a hurricane.

[Eyewall]

Anyone care to speculate on what effect a rapidly developing tropical cyclone off the GA/FL coast would have on the future path of Felix? I was on another site and a very knowledgeable poster indicated that this would seriously weaken the ridge that is currently steering Felix.

there is no such thing happening so who cares..
lets speculate on what is really happening

[El Nino]

The northern coastline of Honduras was devastated by Hurricane Mitch which killed 18,000 people remember.(In no way am I implying that anywhere NEAR the same will happen with Felix, because the forward speed is too high for that to happen.)

1800 would allready be a disaster I think ...

[Derek Ortt]

again, this does not have to move over the populated areas to devastate them

In fact, it has been the left side of TCs that caused the massive loss of life.

I think the 285 heading comes from using 13.2 earlier this morning, while I used 13.3. NHC is no spreading the false info... a few here are when they are saying that Felix is moving well north of the NHC forecast... when it is not

[Cyclenall]

This has got to be one for the books. When I looked at Felix at 1:00 pm, it was a category 4 most likely. Another category 5 in the making, unbelievable. I can't fathom what Felix would be like in the North-west Caribbean with that heat potential (near Cuba I mean).

First % chance of Major Hurricane Felix becoming a:

Category 4 hurricane: 100%
Category 5 hurricane: 63% (extremely high for a hurricane)

[ronjon]

Anyone care to speculate on what effect a rapidly developing tropical cyclone off the GA/FL coast would have on the future path of Felix? I was on another site and a very knowledgeable poster indicated that this would seriously weaken the ridge that is currently steering Felix.

there is no such thing happening so who cares..
lets speculate on what is really happening

I wouldn't rule this area out as it will likely be the next investigation. Some of the models develop it and there is already heavy convection in the area.

[Javlin]

Well IT APPEARS(an if) that the ULL over the Keys has gone stationary.The ULL that I perceived as maybe the weaker of the two in the Bay of Honduras has moved over the Yuc NE(blocking the Key ULL) quad and the Yuc strait.The backside of the ULL over the Keys(it's vapor content) has been at 72* for 6hrs now while Felix continues WNW and now itself is @72*.What does that mean ,I am only an amateur,but that the ridge right might be sitting @72*-74*75*.I am guessing more the the 74*75* mark with Felix's forward motion as it is.If these patterns to Felix's N and NW don't start to move before long,does the ridge stop at the ULL's?

WV Loop 1

WV loop 2

Now if I am wrong please point it out.I asked for clarification on some of these items and topics earlier but got no response.Kevin

[Extremeweatherguy]

Derek, I have not seen anyone say that this system is moving "well north" of the NHC forecast. I have personally noted (along with others) that it was moving "slightly" north of their 11am track, but "slighty north" and "well north" does not mean the same thing. Overall, I think the NHC is doing an excellent job with Felix. Way to go NHC!

[baitism]

I wouldn't rule this area out as it will likely be the next investigation. Some of the models develop it and there is already heavy convection in the area.

It would never develop fast enough to have an impact on Felix...

[Eyewall]

I wouldn't rule this area out as it will likely be the next investigation. Some of the models develop it and there is already heavy convection in the area.

It would never develop fast enough to have an impact on Felix...

exactly

[Derek Ortt]

this eye is fairly small... would not be surprised to see an EWRC tomorrow

[vacanechaser]

Derek, I have not seen anyone say that this system is moving "well north" of the NHC forecast. I have personally noted (along with others) that it was moving "slightly" north of their 11am track, but "slighty north" and "well north" does not mean the same thing. Overall, I think the NHC is doing an excellent job with Felix. Way to go NHC!

great points.... false info, i guess the nhc is leading us astray then.. thats why i dont listen to too many people... i take what the nhc says and pretty much leave it at that.. there is always someone who thinks they know better or differently... for the folks new here or who may have little knowledge of tropical cyclones, read the posts here when the updates come out from the NHC.. they give you the facts.. period...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Epsilon_Fan]

over the last few hours at has been getting larger and the eye seems to be shrinking a little. It may be Wilma-esque by tomorrow!

[AZRainman]

Hurricane Felix strengthens to Category 4 USAToday

Cat 5 tonight anyone?

[Eyewall]

Hurricane Felix strengthens to Category 4 USAToday

Cat 5 tonight anyone?

I'm going to say 150mph at 11pm

[Scorpion]

It could be a Cat 5 right now for all we know

[milankovitch]

Given how strong the winds are at the current pressure cat 5 strength seems like a good possibility.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

Also I really like the new CIMSS tracking app; overlay shear, tracks, models, etc.

[ConvergenceZone]

Derek, I have not seen anyone say that this system is moving "well north" of the NHC forecast. I have personally noted (along with others) that it was moving "slightly" north of their 11am track, but "slighty north" and "well north" does not mean the same thing. Overall, I think the NHC is doing an excellent job with Felix. Way to go NHC!

great points.... false info, i guess the nhc is leading us astray then.. thats why i dont listen to too many people... i take what the nhc says and pretty much leave it at that.. there is always someone who thinks they know better or differently... for the folks new here or who may have little knowledge of tropical cyclones, read the posts here when the updates come out from the NHC.. they give you the facts.. period...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

In all fairness to Derek, he's just telling us what he believes is happening. I mean, he is a professional MET afterall, and I for one appreciate that the METS are posting here like they do, even if I may not agree with them all the time. They don't HAVE to post here at all if they don't want to as it's not part of their job description, but they take their time to do so, and I really really appreciate them posting here and I've learned alot..They know a heck of alot more about hurricanes than I do, and I've seen the NHC mess up before...