Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[ronjon]

Still looks like some uncertainty after the first landfall. By the way, the 12Z Euro has it skimming the north coast of Honduras, into Belize, and into the south BOC,

From the 5 PM NHC Discussion:

A SWIFT WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...285/17...CONTINUES. I HAVE MADE
ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE REASONING BEHIND IT. A WELL-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
FELIX SHOULD MORE OR LESS MAINTAIN THE CURRENT MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS CALLED FOR BY DAY 3 AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS. THE EXACT FATE OF FELIX OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN SINCE THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY THAT A TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. COULD ERODE THE RIDGE MORE THAN
CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT NONE OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS TURN FELIX SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE RIGHT THROUGH 120 HOURS. IN FACT...THE LATEST GFDL MODEL RUN HAS SHIFTED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE. AGAIN...BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES...WE ADVISE AGAINST PUTTING TOO MUCH EMPHASIS
ON THE EXACT NHC FORECAST TRACK AT 4 AND 5 DAYS.

[Stratosphere747]

Will someone elaborate on the latest Euro

As a few have already responded, the path the 12z Euro takes with Felix is the same.

I thought there was a few differences in the upper level. I'm more interested in this, and not where the model is showing the exact path of Felix.

[cycloneye]

24 hours at 850 vorticity

[cycloneye]

36 hours at 850 vorticity

Who wants to post the 500.?

[canetracker]

36 hrs at 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_036l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

The GFS does not even have Dean from the looks of it... it looks like a weak wave

if I am reading this right... next model please

[cycloneye]

54 hours at 850 vorticty

GFS loses a cat 4.
Next!!!

[PTrackerLA]

Where is Felix?

[Derek Ortt]

Its utter HS like this from the GFS that is the reason I refuse to even consider the GFS when forecasting

[canetracker]

42 hrs at 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_042l.gif

48 hrs at 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

54 hrs at 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_054l.gif

Yep, looks like a trash run.

[cycloneye]

Lets now wait for GFDL and UKMET to see if they see Felix.

[cycloneye]

The worse run I haved seen from GFS Ever,bold words right?

[canetracker]

Quick question: If the GFDL is based on the GFS will it be any better??

[ronjon]

The noticably shrinking 500 mb ridge at 66 hrs.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_066s.gif

[vaffie]

The worst open wave ever...!

[MGC]

The models have a horrible grasp on Felix. Its odd, the GFS had such a good handle on Dean. Just goes to show that putting your trust in the models is like playing with a snake, you'll get bit eventually.....MGC

[PTrackerLA]

The models have a horrible grasp on Felix. Its odd, the GFS had such a good handle on Dean. Just goes to show that putting your trust in the models is like playing with a snake, you'll get bit eventually.....MGC

GFS had Dean nailed but now? I'm just hoping there isn't much of a weakness in the ridge once this emerges into the BOC (and at this point I really don't even know if that will happen!) Stay tuned.

[Recurve]

Why was the MM5 so crazy on a NNW motion? Sorry I didn't see any explanation, might not have gone back far enough.

Even with a lack of a strong ridge, the coriolis "force" wouldn't make a storm gain that much latitude for all I know. Without a trough or shear is anything going to track NW even? I'd like to know more about track motion in absence of a ridge and no lows/fronts.

[Duddy]

The models have a horrible grasp on Felix. Its odd, the GFS had such a good handle on Dean. Just goes to show that putting your trust in the models is like playing with a snake, you'll get bit eventually.....MGC

GFS had Dean nailed but now? I'm just hoping there isn't much of a weakness in the ridge once this emerges into the BOC (and at this point I really don't even know if that will happen!) Stay tuned.

I just hope it DOES emerge in the BOC. From what I'm seeing, in less than 18 hours, we may see this storming becoming one of the most intense in recorded history, and then I see it finding that weakness in the eroding ridge and entering the Southeast Gulf of Mexico and possibly making landfall in Texas.

But I'm going to continue to hope that it doesn't and pray for anyone in it's path.

[WxGuy1]

Its utter HS like this from the GFS that is the reason I refuse to even consider the GFS when forecasting

That's a shame, Derek. The GFS did pretty darn well with Dean; it was far from garbage. Sure, it's not always good, but it does well from time-to-time. For that matter, no model is perfect every time (remember the GFDL's forecast of Dean going towards LA?). CONSENSUS, CONSENSUS, CONSENSUS -- it'll beat any single model almost every time in the mean. Check out the stats for GUNA and CONUS, as they almost always verify best by end-of-season. As such, discounting the GFS entirely every single storm and every single run sounds like something I wouldn't want to do, seeing how it's one part of the consensus / composite track forecasts that almost always outperform any single model.