Area off Georgia coast

[storms in NC]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 021942
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
342 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND REMAIN OFFSHORE
MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. LOW PRES OFF THE GA CST IS EXPECTED TO
DRIFT SLOWLY E THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRES TO THE N WILL SLIDE E AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MORE ERLY LOW LVL FLOW. THIS ONSHORE WIND SHLD INCREASE
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND MAY SEE SOME SHRA AND POSS TSRA
CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM SHIFT TWRD SHORE PER THE GFS. STILL
NOT EXPECTING MUCH RAIN BUT BASED ON GFS AND TO SOME EXTENT NAM WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL POPS SRN TIER LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MON. GOOD PART
OF AREA WILL REMAIN MCLR OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT LOWS AGAIN IN THE
60S..WITH AROUND 70 BEACHES. HIGHS MON IN THE 80S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS SFC LOW TO THE S DRIFTS E ANY INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE
SRN TIER SHLD SHIFT FURTHER E WITH NO PRECIP EXPECTED. WL SEE LOWS
MON NIGHT IN THE 60S AND HIGHS TUE AROUND 90 INLAND TO MID 80S
BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WENT CLOSE TO HPC SOLUTION KEEPING LOW TO THE S WELL OFFSHR WITH
HIGH PRES DOMINANT FEATURE OVER REGION. THIS WOULD LEAD TO DRY
FCST WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S
TO AROUND 90 INLAND AND LOWS UPPER 60S TO MID 70S. LATEST GFS RUN
BRINGS THE LOW OFFSHORE BACK W TWRD THE SE CST AND WOULD LEAD TO
MUCH HIGHER RAIN CHCS...HOWEVER NOT GOING WITH THAT SOLUTION AT
THIS TIME.

[storms in NC]

000
FXUS62 KILM 021925
AFDILM



&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG QUESTION MARKS CARRY INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE LURKING OFF THE SE COAST.
VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS PER DPROG/DT PLOTS
(THE LATEST RUN BRINGS THE LOW BACK TO THE SE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT). UNTIL BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY IS SHOWN DO NOT PLAN
TO INCLUDE POPS WITH THE FORECAST AREA MAINLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH. NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

[HURAKAN]

ABNT20 KNHC 022129
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE
EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/BROWN

[vacanechaser]

well, it figures not much mention, franklinis in there and he seems to down play things a bit at times... just have to keep watching it..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[storms in NC]

It is the same as it was at the one before this one. I would watch it. For it is close to home. And one other thing is the gulf stream

You can see some baning starting to wrap.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huecvs.html

[cpdaman]

it would seem to me the decent high building down from the north east and canada would increase NE'rly shear over this system unless it pushes off to the se a decent amount

wxman 57 where are you, your are missed, any comment.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES E-W ALONG OUR N BORDER FROM
S OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N65W TO NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER.
DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME CYCLONIC ROTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM 29N-32N
BETWEEN 79W-81W. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BUOY DATA IN THIS AREA ALSO
SUGGEST A WEAK LOW MAY BE FORMING.

[robbielyn]

I think that the low spinning off the northern bahamas may be the place to watch.

[jimvb]

The storm in 1996 that came after Edouard was Fran, not Francis or Frances. Serious error on the part of NHC to name a storm Frances in 2004 after they named one Fran in 1996.

[HURAKAN]

The storm in 1996 that came after Edouard was Fran, not Francis or Frances. Serious error on the part of NHC to name a storm Frances in 2004 after they named one Fran in 1996.

Fay replaced Fran. Before Fran, 1996, Frances and Fran existed in the list. The NHC has nothing to do with the naming. It's the WMO.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I think this may develop into
a depression or tropical storm with that
hot water...low shear.

And also, it would go east and then the ridge
builds back in forcing it west towards the se
us coast.

[HURAKAN]

941
ABNT20 KNHC 030302
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 345 MILES SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON
JAMAICA.

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ABOUT
HALFWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES REMAINS LIMITED AND
DISORGANIZED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THE CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED
AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL ZONE
EXTEND FROM NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES FOR A FEW HUNDRED MILES. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...IS
EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[HURAKAN]

There seems to be some kind of mid-level rotation.

41012
10:50 pm WSW ( 246 deg ) 10.7 kts
10:40 pm WSW ( 245 deg ) 10.5 kts
10:30 pm WSW ( 243 deg ) 9.7 kts
10:20 pm WSW ( 240 deg ) 9.1 kts
10:10 pm WSW ( 255 deg ) 7.4 kts
10:00 pm W ( 260 deg ) 6.6 kts

GTXF1
9 02 7:45 pm W 1.0 - - - - - 30.00 - 72.9 - 72.3 - - -
09 02 7:30 pm SW 1.9 - - - - - 30.03 - 73.0 - 72.5 - - -
09 02 7:15 pm SSW 2.9 - - - - - 30.03 - 73.4 - 72.9 - - -
09 02 7:00 pm SSW 2.9 - - - - - 30.03 -0.03 74.1 - 73.6 - - -
09 02 6:45 pm SSW 1.9 - - - - - 30.06 - 74.7 - 74.1 - - -
09 02 6:30 pm SW 1.0 - - - - - 30.06 - 74.8 - 74.3 - - -
09 02 6:15 pm SW 1.0 - - - - - 30.06 - 74.8 - 74.3 - - -
09 02 6:00 pm SW 1.0 - - - - - 30.06 +0.00 74.7 - 74.1 - - -
09 02 5:45 pm WSW 1.9 - - - - - 30.06 - 74.7 - 74.1 - - -
09 02 5:30 pm SW 1.0 - - - - - 30.03 - 74.7 - 73.8 - - -
09 02 5:15 pm - 0.0 - - - - - 30.03 - 74.7 - 73.8 - - -
09 02 5:00 pm SSW

SAUF1
11:00 pm SW ( 227 deg ) 3 kts
10:50 pm SW ( 224 deg ) 2 kts
10:40 pm SW ( 214 deg ) 2 kts
10:30 pm SW ( 231 deg ) 3 kts
10:20 pm SW ( 223 deg ) 3 kts
10:10 pm WSW ( 240 deg ) 3 kts

Maybe there is something in the surface.

[OuterBanker]

One note before bed. It appears that the low has seperated itself from the frontal zone and is starting to spin up a bit. Very weak at this point, but could flare up tommorow. Bathwater eveywhere. Generally +2c all along the east coast. Gulf stream approaching 90f. With any luck it won't reach it.

[Bane]

it'll be interesting to see if it does get pushed back to the coast later this week.

[cpdaman]

from NDBC website

SYNOPSIS FOR ALTAMAHA SOUND GA TO FLAGLER BEACH

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST WILL DEEPEN THROUGH
MONDAY...THEN VERY SLOWLY DRIFT EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW REGIME OVER THE AREA FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT THE LOW WILL BEGIN
TO MOVE BACK TOWARD THE COAST BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

that sounded bullish, this NDBC forecast for the SW NORTH ATLANTIC INC. BAHAMAS
doesn't

1015 MB LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W WILL
MEANDER IN THE AREA THROUGH THU THEN TURN W AND MOVE INLAND OVER
GEORGIA OR N FLORIDA FRI

and lastly the tallahasee and jacksonvile NOAA DISCUSSIONS hint at a slowly strengthening low moving ese then possibly westward.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Hmm...a possible storm for N FL South GA...interesante...

[vaffie]

I think naming it an invest is pretty likely this morning now. Pressures have fallen slightly overnight (above and beyond the diurnal change), but only slightly. Convection has increased a lot and also in terms of organization. For Felix-watchers, in order for it to affect the track of Felix at all, it will have to deepen today very rapidly. We shall see.

[storms in NC]

It is not just a Fla or Ga storm. From fla to NC. Time is what it is allll about.

AFDILM

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BIG QUESTION MARKS CARRY INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH RESPECT TO
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BE LURKING OFF THE SE COAST.
VAST DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 06Z AND 12Z GFS RUNS PER DPROG/DT PLOTS
(THE LATEST RUN BRINGS THE LOW BACK TO THE SE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SAT).

[HURAKAN]

Latest: Looking good



No RECON scheduled so far.