Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[jhamps10]

[fasterdisaster]

This is, IMO, the fourth best hurricane on satellite I've ever seen(behind only Katrina, Wilma, and Isabel).

I agree for the most part although I think I would possibly include Mitch and/or Rita. Rita looked similar to Felix at her peak in terms of deep convection, except she had a larger eye.

Whoops, forgot Mitch, fifth in that case, and while Rita WITHOUT DOUBT was an excellent looking storm, I'd barely notch Felix above it. Just my opinion though.

[Air Force Met]

This is NOT annular... not even close. Rainbands are quite visible on the IR... those outer abnds are a part of the circulation as seen by microwave imagery.

In fact, I expect an EWRC to occur tomorrow

I'm going on the record as officially disagreeing. The feeder bands are evaporating on the last two (2) IR frames, and the donut is there. I read that annular document completely and thoroughly. If this isn't going annular, that document needs updating.

EDIT: You're free to disagree in my book, no hard feelings here.

Did you read the part in the paper that spoke to the large eye? Or the part where the SST's need to be between 25.48–28.58C? The SST where Felix is now is much higher than that which supports annular hurricanes.

[WindRunner]

Interesting thing of note . . . the eye has been warming noticeably over the past several hours, but the area of warmth has begin to shrink in the last 90 minutes or so. Still a well-defined temperature gradient, but the warmer colors on IR are becoming narrower than they were the hour after recon left . . . may be a sign of balancing out post-intensification.

[Extremecane]

latest imagery the feeder bands are evaporating even more

[Ed Mahmoud]

A hurricane can maintain below 26º?

[GeneratorPower]

You're right on the large eye part, granted. But look at Beatriz and Dora, man they look similar to Felix to me. I'll stop now

[Normandy]

GeneratorPower,
Neither of those hurricanes have rainbands...Felix has many.

[Bane]

You're right on the large eye part, granted. But look at Beatriz and Dora, man they look similar to Felix to me. I'll stop now

probably a good idea. two mets have said it isn't annular. they know what they're talking about.

[LAwxrgal]

Felix's eye still isn't as large as that of Beatriz or Dora. Its eye is still relatively small and so is its windfield.

It's due to start an EWRC soon, though. Can't maintain this intensity for too much longer.

[wxman57]

See my post in the Felix Global Models thread. I won't post the same images here, but I think that the NW turn the models have been indicating over the Yucatan was due to the GFS's spurious "hurricane" it was developing east of Florida Tue-Thu. This resulted in a weakened ridge across the northern Gulf and the NW turn by the GFS and several major consensus models. The NOGAPS taking Felix through the FL straights didn't help the consensus models. NHC likes to stay close to the CONU (consensus model) and the CONU now moves Felix across the southern BoC (south of 20N). That's a good 100 miles or more south of the previous runs. I've been saying that the European hit Dean perfectly and has been right-on with Felix up to now. It has been taking Felix into Nicaragua from day one and it may be right. Let's hope the southward model trend continues. We don't want two landfalls in Mexico.

[wxman57]

By the way, I agree with Derek and AFM - Felix isn't even close to being annular. See Isabel of 2003 for an annular hurricane.

[Extremecane]

Hurricane isabel

[ConvergenceZone]

See my post in the Felix Global Models thread. I won't post the same images here, but I think that the NW turn the models have been indicating over the Yucatan was due to the GFS's spurious "hurricane" it was developing east of Florida Tue-Thu. This resulted in a weakened ridge across the northern Gulf and the NW turn by the GFS and several major consensus models. The NOGAPS taking Felix through the FL straights didn't help the consensus models. NHC likes to stay close to the CONU (consensus model) and the CONU now moves Felix across the southern BoC (south of 20N). That's a good 100 miles or more south of the previous runs. I've been saying that the European hit Dean perfectly and has been right-on with Felix up to now. It has been taking Felix into Nicaragua from day one and it may be right. Let's hope the southward model trend continues. We don't want two landfalls in Mexico.

I also just heard that on Tv...that this storm may just have 1 landfall to contend with afterall....If the trend does continue southward, then Belize might be out of the woods. I also hope that the southward trending of the models continue. Yea, I know, it will still hit somewhere, but it's good news in the sense that perhaps we will ony have 1 landfall to worry about from here on out...

[GeneratorPower]

Excellent discussion. I appreciate the explanations. Is this the first time AFM has posted on this storm? It takes a lot to get 'em riled up, I guess!

[miamicanes177]

Let's hope the southward model trend continues. We don't want two landfalls in Mexico.

My God man that is horrible. You want this beast to hit Honduras and kill thousands of people? I'm praying this will go north and miss those poor people. Let it hit another swamp like Dean. It needs to get as far north as possible from Honduras or we'll have a catastrophe.

[Ptarmigan]

You're right on the large eye part, granted. But look at Beatriz and Dora, man they look similar to Felix to me. I'll stop now

I notice annular hurricanes are more common in EPAC than Atlantic.

[AL Chili Pepper]

I remember seeing Ivan get an annular look while in the GOM, but it didn't last long. He looked like a perfect doughnut at one stage while over the loop current. I even remember Derek's post: "This better not be going annular!".

[HURAKAN]

Just for historical purposes, "Félix" becomes the first "F" named category 5 hurricane in the Atlantic.

[Category 5]

5

I couldn't resist.