Invest 98L: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

WHXX01 KWBC 020052
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0052 UTC SUN SEP 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070902 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070902 0000 070902 1200 070903 0000 070903 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.7N 37.5W 13.0N 39.1W 13.0N 40.6W 12.8N 42.1W
BAMD 12.7N 37.5W 12.8N 40.2W 12.7N 42.7W 12.4N 45.0W
BAMM 12.7N 37.5W 12.7N 39.6W 12.5N 41.5W 12.2N 43.2W
LBAR 12.7N 37.5W 12.6N 39.6W 12.7N 41.8W 12.7N 44.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 28KTS 30KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070904 0000 070905 0000 070906 0000 070907 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 12.5N 43.4W 11.6N 46.3W 11.8N 48.6W 13.2N 50.1W
BAMD 12.1N 47.3W 11.8N 52.0W 11.3N 56.9W 10.9N 61.6W
BAMM 11.8N 44.9W 11.5N 48.4W 11.9N 51.7W 13.2N 54.5W
LBAR 12.9N 46.5W 12.8N 51.0W 12.4N 55.1W 12.2N 58.3W
SHIP 31KTS 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS
DSHP 31KTS 35KTS 41KTS 45KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 12.7N LONCUR = 37.5W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 9KT
LATM12 = 13.5N LONM12 = 35.7W DIRM12 = 258DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 13.7N LONM24 = 33.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
Moving WSW and the SHIP intensity is more slow to increase intensity and less strong at the end than before.

[cycloneye]

889
WHXX04 KWBC 020517
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 0Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.6 37.8 250./ 8.9
6 12.8 38.3 291./ 6.0
12 12.6 39.5 257./12.1
18 12.6 40.6 272./10.3
24 12.3 41.7 255./11.1
30 12.4 42.0 282./ 2.8
36 12.1 42.8 252./ 8.4
42 12.1 43.3 269./ 5.4
48 11.8 44.4 254./10.9
54 11.4 45.3 249./ 9.4
60 11.0 46.3 247./11.0
66 11.1 47.1 276./ 7.4

STORM DISSIPATED AT 66 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

The 00z run of GFDL dissipates 98L in 66 hours.

[cycloneye]

ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 2

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.9 38.1 235./ 8.9
6 11.7 38.6 245./ 5.0
12 11.8 39.1 277./ 5.4
18 11.7 39.4 243./ 3.3
24 11.4 39.8 244./ 4.8
30 11.2 40.4 242./ 5.8
36 10.7 40.7 219./ 5.6
42 10.8 40.9 285./ 1.5
48 10.8 41.1 273./ 2.0
54 11.1 41.5 307./ 5.6
60 11.6 42.0 312./ 6.4
66 12.0 42.6 307./ 7.2
72 12.8 42.9 340./ 8.1
78 13.4 43.9 303./11.6
84 14.1 44.7 309./10.7
90 14.7 45.4 314./ 9.0
96 15.4 46.3 305./11.1
102 16.0 47.4 301./12.2
108 16.7 48.8 295./15.2
114 17.2 49.9 295./11.8
120 17.8 51.4 292./15.0
126 18.5 52.5 301./13.1
6z GFDL doesnt dissipate anymore 98L.Track now changes to more north trending to fish.

[cycloneye]

577
WHXX01 KWBC 021235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SUN SEP 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070902 1200 070903 0000 070903 1200 070904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 38.7W 11.9N 39.9W 11.5N 40.9W 11.0N 41.9W
BAMD 11.9N 38.7W 11.9N 40.9W 11.7N 42.9W 11.4N 45.0W
BAMM 11.9N 38.7W 11.9N 40.4W 11.6N 41.8W 11.2N 43.3W
LBAR 11.9N 38.7W 11.8N 40.6W 11.6N 42.5W 11.8N 44.4W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200 070907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 43.0W 10.3N 44.4W 11.8N 45.3W 14.0N 47.5W
BAMD 11.2N 47.0W 11.1N 51.1W 11.7N 55.4W 12.7N 59.9W
BAMM 11.0N 44.8W 11.3N 47.8W 12.6N 50.9W 13.8N 54.0W
LBAR 11.9N 46.5W 12.3N 50.8W 13.2N 54.8W 14.0N 58.4W
SHIP 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 38.7W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.5W DIRM12 = 230DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[Meso]

The 06z HWRF for 98l
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

[canegrl04]

577
WHXX01 KWBC 021235
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1235 UTC SUN SEP 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070902 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070902 1200 070903 0000 070903 1200 070904 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 38.7W 11.9N 39.9W 11.5N 40.9W 11.0N 41.9W
BAMD 11.9N 38.7W 11.9N 40.9W 11.7N 42.9W 11.4N 45.0W
BAMM 11.9N 38.7W 11.9N 40.4W 11.6N 41.8W 11.2N 43.3W
LBAR 11.9N 38.7W 11.8N 40.6W 11.6N 42.5W 11.8N 44.4W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 26KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070904 1200 070905 1200 070906 1200 070907 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.4N 43.0W 10.3N 44.4W 11.8N 45.3W 14.0N 47.5W
BAMD 11.2N 47.0W 11.1N 51.1W 11.7N 55.4W 12.7N 59.9W
BAMM 11.0N 44.8W 11.3N 47.8W 12.6N 50.9W 13.8N 54.0W
LBAR 11.9N 46.5W 12.3N 50.8W 13.2N 54.8W 14.0N 58.4W
SHIP 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS
DSHP 26KTS 30KTS 34KTS 35KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 38.7W DIRCUR = 250DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 12.7N LONM12 = 37.5W DIRM12 = 230DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 13.5N LONM24 = 35.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

Big change from yesterday.Models all trending North.This will either be a Gulf system,or fish

[Bane]

or it could even bug the east coast, though it will have a tough time to survive how it is now.

[cycloneye]

6z GFDL Animation

[storms in NC]

It will be this one or the one that they have coming about in a few day off the coast of Ga I think. It is that time of the year that the ridge gets weakness into it and brings them this way. we have been very luck since Floyd in 1999 For us down this way. Morehead got Ophelia in 05 It tore up a few place up there. We did have Ernesto last year but only some flooding with him not much wind.

Just sit back and wait.

[x-y-no]

Gotta love the NOGAPS on this one ... really wants to send it back to Africa.

[cycloneye]

Gotta love the NOGAPS on this one ... really wants to send it back to Africa.

Wow I want to see that laugher

[cycloneye]

12z NOGAPS

Here is the laugher.

[cycloneye]

524
WHXX01 KWBC 021837
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1837 UTC SUN SEP 2 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070902 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070902 1800 070903 0600 070903 1800 070904 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.6N 39.2W 11.2N 40.8W 10.6N 42.2W 9.9N 43.4W
BAMD 11.6N 39.2W 11.4N 41.5W 11.0N 43.7W 10.7N 46.0W
BAMM 11.6N 39.2W 11.3N 40.9W 10.9N 42.6W 10.5N 44.3W
LBAR 11.6N 39.2W 11.2N 40.9W 11.1N 42.9W 11.2N 44.7W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 26KTS 27KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070904 1800 070905 1800 070906 1800 070907 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 9.3N 44.5W 9.3N 46.7W 10.5N 48.3W 11.1N 50.0W
BAMD 10.4N 48.4W 10.1N 52.9W 10.4N 57.2W 11.0N 61.0W
BAMM 10.4N 45.8W 10.9N 48.8W 12.1N 51.7W 13.5N 54.5W
LBAR 11.6N 46.8W 12.5N 51.0W 13.5N 55.3W 13.9N 58.9W
SHIP 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS 46KTS
DSHP 29KTS 37KTS 43KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 39.2W DIRCUR = 240DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 37.9W DIRM12 = 236DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 13.2N LONM24 = 36.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

18:00z BAMS for 98L.SHIP ups its intensity forecast a little from this mornings 12:00z run.

[x-y-no]

All the BAMs are seeing some significant weakness in the ridge after 3 days.

[cycloneye]

[canegrl04]

or it could even bug the east coast, though it will have a tough time to survive how it is now.

Yep.Thats a possibility too.Bottom line,possible Gabrielle is definietly going to become a US threat.More fav. conditions are ahead of 98L.If it survives tomorrow it will become TD 7

[cycloneye]

WHXX04 KWBC 031116
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVEST 98L

INITIAL TIME 6Z SEP 3

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 10.8 39.7 220./ 5.0
6 10.9 39.6 71./ 1.8

STORM DISSIPATED AT 6 HRS AT THE ABOVE PSN.

6z GFDL dissipates it in 6 hours.

[cycloneye]

KWBC 031223
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1223 UTC MON SEP 3 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL982007) 20070903 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070903 1200 070904 0000 070904 1200 070905 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 10.9N 39.8W 10.9N 40.6W 10.8N 41.5W 10.9N 42.1W
BAMD 10.9N 39.8W 11.0N 41.6W 11.3N 43.3W 11.5N 44.8W
BAMM 10.9N 39.8W 10.8N 41.2W 10.8N 42.3W 11.1N 43.3W
LBAR 10.9N 39.8W 11.0N 41.1W 11.3N 42.8W 11.7N 44.5W
SHIP 25KTS 24KTS 23KTS 25KTS
DSHP 25KTS 24KTS 23KTS 25KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070905 1200 070906 1200 070907 1200 070908 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.3N 42.5W 13.1N 43.5W 15.2N 45.8W 18.4N 50.3W
BAMD 11.7N 46.3W 12.5N 49.4W 13.6N 52.7W 14.7N 56.4W
BAMM 11.4N 44.3W 12.7N 46.5W 14.2N 49.4W 15.9N 53.4W
LBAR 12.1N 46.4W 13.1N 50.4W 14.1N 54.4W 14.8N 58.8W
SHIP 27KTS 33KTS 36KTS 40KTS
DSHP 27KTS 33KTS 36KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 10.9N LONCUR = 39.8W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 4KT
LATM12 = 11.2N LONM12 = 39.4W DIRM12 = 212DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 38.7W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM


Is starting to move westward but crawling.