Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[jhamps10]

Well, considering that Felix is seemingly going to hit the next NHC forecast point head on, I see no reason for them to adjust the track southward even if the CONU shifted south. It would have to take a bend westward to hit Nicaragua.

yeah NHC doesn't need to change forecast points at all right now IMO, they may move it a little bit south, but it won't be much at all really. in fact I am a lot more concerned that we could see this low off the GA/SC coast develop and create a stronger weakeness in the ridge on the eastern end, thus causing a more NW movement in the Caribbean. Actually that appears to be pretty plausible looking at it tonight. that system looks pretty healthy to me.

[wxman57]

The CONU has only shifted south just recently. Earlier today it was much further north. I would like to see this become a trend for at least a few more model run times before buying into it.

Correct, that's why I'd only make a gradual southward track shift for now.

[wxman57]

Well, considering that Felix is seemingly going to hit the next NHC forecast point head on, I see no reason for them to adjust the track southward even if the CONU shifted south. It would have to take a bend westward to hit Nicaragua.

yeah NHC doesn't need to change forecast points at all right now IMO, they may move it a little bit south, but it won't be much at all really. in fact I am a lot more concerned that we could see this low off the GA/SC coast develop and create a stronger weakeness in the ridge on the eastern end, thus causing a more NW movement in the Caribbean. Actually that appears to be pretty plausible looking at it tonight. that system looks pretty healthy to me.

I wasn't talking about the first 72 hours of the NHC's track, it's the last 2 days that are now north of guidance and will probably be shifted south. That NW turn at the end.

[Extremeweatherguy]

why is the 11pm advisory taking so long to come out tonight?

[btangy]

CONU, if anything, has been too far to the N. The model consensus is trending further S more toward the ECMWF solution as noted in an earlier post.

[CrazyC83]

why is the 11pm advisory taking so long to come out tonight?

Probably due to extensive in-house debate due to the lack of recon data.

[GeneratorPower]

why is the 11pm advisory taking so long to come out tonight?

They haven't finished reading all 1106 posts on Storm2K, which they use to make the forecast.

[jhamps10]

yeah NHC doesn't need to change forecast points at all right now IMO, they may move it a little bit south, but it won't be much at all really. in fact I am a lot more concerned that we could see this low off the GA/SC coast develop and create a stronger weakeness in the ridge on the eastern end, thus causing a more NW movement in the Caribbean. Actually that appears to be pretty plausible looking at it tonight. that system looks pretty healthy to me.

I wasn't talking about the first 72 hours of the NHC's track, it's the last 2 days that are now north of guidance and will probably be shifted south. That NW turn at the end.

I know what you were talking about, I was just pointing out that everything right now appears on track, except for this possible low forming off the SEUS coast. Right now I would only make small changes, if any.

[JonathanBelles]

why is the 11pm advisory taking so long to come out tonight?

Probably due to extensive in-house debate due to the lack of recon data.

the TWO is late now too.

[Stratosphere747]

why is the 11pm advisory taking so long to come out tonight?

Be patient...

Doubt there will be any shift N.

[LeeJet]

I bet they will reduce the pressure by 5 mb.

[vacanechaser]

004
WTNT21 KNHC 030255
TCMAT1
HURRICANE FELIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
0300 UTC MON SEP 03 2007

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMEMLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 73.9W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 75SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 73.9W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 73.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W
MAX WIND 150 KT...GUSTS 185 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 75SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 73.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[artist]

RDTF wrote:

I'd hate to see La Ceiba destroyed

where is La Ceiba?
wow the eye is only 10 nm?

[vacanechaser]

321
WTNT31 KNHC 030256
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR HONDURAS AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC
HURRICANE FELIX MOVES WESTWARD IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM LIMON TO THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMEMLY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.9 WEST OR ABOUT 345 MILES...
550 KM...SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 625 MILES...1010 KM
...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
BETWEEN WEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...HOWEVER FELIX IS EXPECTED
TO RETAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 930 MB...27.46 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 1100 PM EDT POSITION...13.9 N...73.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[windstorm99]

[LeeJet]

I was right!

[wxman57]

As I suspected, they're nudging the track southward the last 2 days. I thought they might go a tad farther south on the first adjustment, though. Time for bed.

[Innotech]

such a high pressure.

[MGC]

Small windfield I'd say. Imagine going from 75mph to 165mph in 25 miles!....MGC

[vacanechaser]

324
WTNT41 KNHC 030256
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 02 2007

SINCE THE TIME OF THE LAST RECONNAISSANCE PENETRATION OF FELIX AT
23Z...THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED APPRECIABLY...WITH
THE HIGHEST OBJECTIVE DVORAK RAW T NUMBERS REACHING T7.3 AROUND
00Z. GIVEN NO NET TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION SINCE THE
TIME OF THE LAST FIX...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 145 KT.
THE OUTFLOW PATTERN REMAINS IMPRESSIVE...AND FELIX HAS YET TO PASS
OVER THE VERY HIGH HEAT CONTENT WATERS OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
LATEST MICROWAVE IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW CONCENTRIC EYEWALL
STRUCTURE...SO THERE COULD BE A LITTLE MORE SHORT-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. THERE DO NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY LARGE-SCALE FACTORS
TO CAUSE APPRECIABLE WEAKENING UNTIL THE HURRICANE INTERACTS WITH
THE LAND MASS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/18. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT ACCELERATION
OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AS FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER
ANTICYCLONE. THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN ONLY VERY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ENOUGH ONLY TO SLOW THE
FORWARD SPEED A BIT...BEFORE FELIX MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF ADDITIONAL
RIDGING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. LITTLE CHANGE IN HEADING IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. AFTER THAT...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR
WHETHER THERE WILL BE ANY INTERACTION BETWEEN THE HURRICANE AND A
MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND THE GULF STATES DURING DAYS 4-5. MODEL GUIDANCE...WHICH WAS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT SIX HOURS AGO...IS MORE DIVERSE NOW. THE MAJOR
MODEL SHIFT IS WITH THE GFS...WHICH NOW KEEPS FELIX OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA AND OUT OF THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT SOUTHWARD...BUT STILL LIES IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0300Z 13.9N 73.9W 145 KT
12HR VT 03/1200Z 14.5N 76.6W 150 KT
24HR VT 04/0000Z 15.0N 79.8W 145 KT
36HR VT 04/1200Z 15.6N 82.8W 145 KT
48HR VT 05/0000Z 16.2N 85.2W 145 KT
72HR VT 06/0000Z 17.5N 89.0W 135 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0000Z 19.5N 93.0W 80 KT
120HR VT 08/0000Z 21.5N 96.5W 90 KT

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN