Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[boca]

Felix compares to Andrew when it hit Homstead with the small windfield. I think Andrew's hurricane force winds were out 25 miles too.

[ConvergenceZone]

WTNT31 KNHC 030256
ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

wow, that's good news regarding the wind field, that is really small...

[RDTF]

RDTF wrote:

I'd hate to see La Ceiba destroyed

where is La Ceiba?
wow the eye is only 10 nm?

La Ceiba is on the coast, just south of the Bay Islands (Roatan)

[artist]

that is good news but doesn't help the islands , unfortunately.

Felix is spitting out the dry air just as fast as it hits in on this loop - go with a 25-30 loop if your computer can handle it.

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html

[LeeJet]

Belize City might be destroyed.

[jhamps10]

Well, considering that Felix is seemingly going to hit the next NHC forecast point head on, I see no reason for them to adjust the track southward even if the CONU shifted south. It would have to take a bend westward to hit Nicaragua.

yeah NHC doesn't need to change forecast points at all right now IMO, they may move it a little bit south, but it won't be much at all really. in fact I am a lot more concerned that we could see this low off the GA/SC coast develop and create a stronger weakeness in the ridge on the eastern end, thus causing a more NW movement in the Caribbean. Actually that appears to be pretty plausible looking at it tonight. that system looks pretty healthy to me.

I'd like some professional opinion on my last post please. Am I totally talking out of my butt here, or would this possibly developing allow Felix to go on a more northwest track in the caribbean, and possibly making a track more towards mexico.

[Scorpion]

If Felix continues on its current track Belize City will be levelled as will the north coast of Honduras

[Coredesat]

Belize City might be destroyed.

Again. Remember, Belize moved its capital to Belmopan after Hattie destroyed Belize City in 1961.

[HURAKAN]

[Sanibel]

I think it is on trop points so far - yes. That means Felix should clear Honduras and smash Belize unhindered by land.

Should do another WNW wobble to stay on NHC track.

[Zardoz]

I think it is on trop points so far - yes. That means Felix should clear Honduras and smash Belize unhindered by land.

My friends on Ambergris Cay dodged a bullet when Dean went north of them. Let's hope Felix comes ashore in the same place...

[Sanibel]

I'm afraid they won't escape this one this time. They are too island cool and calm on the Ambergris Message Board. They don't understand the life-threatening disaster that is about to head their way. If they are lucky it will go south into middle Belize where Iris landfell. But I suspect the trend will be just right enough to go close enough to them for the worst I'm afraid.

[cheezyWXguy]

It appears Felix is becoming a bit more ragged right now. He's obviously leveled off right now, with the warming cloud tops. I dont think hes done yet. With the warm eddy still in its path, i could see a 175mph Felix by tomorrow morning at sometime

[fasterdisaster]

EWRC could start soon.

[micktooth]

When is the last time and how often has a storm gone from TS to CAT 5 this quickly?

[cheezyWXguy]

EWRC could start soon.

I dont think yet...maybe tomorrow afternoon...but there are no signs of concentric eyewalls yet. Its extremely difficult for a storm to maintain the appearance it had earlier this evening for very long. Felix was strengthening on borderline to insane, and now is taking a breather. With evidence of convective banding reappearing, and warm waters ahead, there is no reason why there cant be additional strengthening through the night tonight. Not much strengthening, but maybe an extra 10-15mph

[cheezyWXguy]

When is the last time and how often has a storm gone from TS to CAT 5 this quickly?

Hurricane Wilma

[Evil Jeremy]

the last time it happened, along with the record (i think) was with Wilma

[miamicanes177]

It is starting to look more annular in my opinion. Notice all the bands have been dieing down and if this continues it will just be one big CDO. No I am not saying it is annular, but it looks to be headed that way.

[wxmann_91]

It is starting to look more annular in my opinion. Notice all the bands have been dieing down and if this continues it will just be one big CDO. No I am not saying it is annular, but it looks to be headed that way.

It is not annular.

One thing that everyone has to keep in mind - annular hurricanes only form in specific thermodynamic environments. The SST's are too warm and the environment too unstable for something annular.

Caribbean and annular should never be used in the same sentence. That's because the thermodynamic environment in the Caribbean is always too good, so to speak, for annular storms. They only form in marginally thermodynamic environments.

And, the eye is way too small for this to be annular.