Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[Nimbus]

The high pressure envelope over Gil in the Pacific could bridge over Felix if he stays far enough south. Otherwise there should be an ULL between the two high pressure domes.

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS initialized Felix as a small 1008mb low - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Now the question is...does this run continue the southward track trend of the 18z? or does it shift back north to where it had the track earlier in the day?

[Stratosphere747]

00z GFS initialized Felix as a small 1008mb low - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Now the question is...does this run continue the southward track trend of the 18z? or does it shift back north to where it had the track earlier in the day?

I'm a bit confused on how you treat the GFS, EWG?

[jhamps10]

also important, how does the GFS handle the low off the SE US coast. that could also have major implications on the future track of our cat here.

[canetracker]

00z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_012l.gif
18z
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_slp_012l.gif
12 hr seems to be a bit farther north than the 18z

[cycloneye]

12 hours at 850 vorticity

Anyone wants to post the 500?

[Derek Ortt]

do we even want to see the GFS after 18Z's performance?

[Sanibel]

Someone should go over and give that GFS mainframe a boot in the side to get it to realize Felix is a category 5 monster and not a tropical wave.

[cycloneye]

24 hours at 850 vorticity

Just East of Nicaragua.

[canetracker]

500mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_024l.gif
Went south.

[cycloneye]

36 hours at 850 Vorticity

Landfall in Nicaragua.

[hurricanetrack]

All you pros out there, why is it the GFS cannot see this as even a hurricane on the surface map? What is up with that? Did the same thing with Isabel too. A 1009 mb low on the coast of Central America- are you kidding?

[canetracker]

500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_036l.gif
That was fast.

[Normandy]

The GFS is out to lunch.... In order for a Nicaragua hit that far south, Felix would need to move DUE west from now until landfall. Not gonna happen.

[cycloneye]

Canetracker,lets continue to post the run to see where the low goes from Nicaragua.

[Evil Jeremy]

The GFS is out to lunch.... In order for a Nicaragua hit that far south, Dean would need to move DUE west from now until landfall. Not gonna happen.

you mean Felix right?

lol. We are all still in "Dean" mode!

[Extremeweatherguy]

00z GFS initialized Felix as a small 1008mb low - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Now the question is...does this run continue the southward track trend of the 18z? or does it shift back north to where it had the track earlier in the day?

I'm a bit confused on how you treat the GFS, EWG?

I don't entirely like it, but it is still worth looking at since it has an impact on the CONU. I give it much more respect when it initializes a system well and can keep that system as a closed low throughout it's run. In this case, it has initialized it slightly better than earlier runs, but still not as good as I think it could have. We will have to wait and see what the rest of the run shows though. If it weakens Felix back down to a >1010mb low again and opens it up, or if it takes Felix on some wild path scenario that doesn't seem possible, then I will probably not completely buy into this run.

[canetracker]

do we even want to see the GFS after 18Z's performance?

You are correct as usual.

[cycloneye]

54 hours surface

A 1010 mb low??????? emerges from Honduras to just east of Belize.

[Normandy]

The GFS is out to lunch.... In order for a Nicaragua hit that far south, Dean would need to move DUE west from now until landfall. Not gonna happen.

you mean Felix right?

lol. We are all still in "Dean" mode!

Yes Felix....my bad.
Why does the GFS not have this as a major cane?