Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[canetracker]

500 mb 54 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_054l.gif

[JonathanBelles]

The GFS is out to lunch.... In order for a Nicaragua hit that far south, Dean would need to move DUE west from now until landfall. Not gonna happen.

you mean Felix right?

lol. We are all still in "Dean" mode!

Yes Felix....my bad.
Why does the GFS not have this as a major cane?

GFS isnt used very often for intensity, just track. I've been typing Feliz or Dean all day.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well it looks like the GFS is probably crazy again. Though I would say there is a slight chance of this path happening, I am certainly not buying into it. The storm would have to move basically due west from it's current location in order for this to verify. Also, I am not too thrilled with the intensity. It keeps the system right near 1008-1010mb throughout this run, and I would have wanted to see it show something below 1008mb..prefferably even below 1000mb...in order for me to take this run more seriously.

[Stratosphere747]

00z GFS initialized Felix as a small 1008mb low - http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

Now the question is...does this run continue the southward track trend of the 18z? or does it shift back north to where it had the track earlier in the day?

I'm a bit confused on how you treat the GFS, EWG?

I don't entirely like it, but it is still worth looking at since it has an impact on the CONU. I give it much more respect when it initializes a system well and can keep that system as a closed low throughout it's run. In this case, it has initialized it slightly better than earlier runs, but still not as good as I think it could have. We will have to wait and see what the rest of the run shows though. If it weakens Felix back down to a >1010mb low again and opens it up, or if it takes Felix on some wild path scenario that doesn't seem possible, then I will probably not completely buy into this run.

I think you could be taking strides...

Remember, at least for this system, it's not about the track but what is shows in the upper levels....

[Derek Ortt]

we all know why the GFS stands for Good For (you know what... may be a TOS violation to post the final word)

[canetracker]

500 mb 66 hrs still causing some problems inland
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

[Sanibel]

Trash this run. GFS unreliable for Felix.

[cycloneye]

66 hours surface

Stationary over Belize

[canetracker]

Would like to trash this run as I am sure Belize does not want a stationary system sitting on top of it.

[boca]

I just threw the 00zGFS run down the disposal which is worse than the trash.

[Extremeweatherguy]

500 mb 66 hrs still causing some problems inland
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_066l.gif

pretty impressive south-to-north steering flow stretching all the way to the southern BOC at 66 hours on this run. The trough seems a little sharper on this run as compared to the 18z.

[hurricanetrack]

The GFS is rolled up. That is incredible.

[cycloneye]

78 hours surface

Oh no!! Reemerges into Caribbean Sea.

[canetracker]

500mb 78 hrs
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_078l.gif

[Texashawk]

78 hours surface

Oh no!! Reemerges into Caribbean Sea.

So.... can we safely assume this goes into File 9?

[Derek Ortt]

Thankfully, it is not long until the Canadian model is out

[Vortex]

Here comes Big mama Off Africa at the same time !!!!

[RL3AO]

Those are some funky steering currents.

[canetracker]

This is certainly a wild and crazy run

[Extremeweatherguy]

wow. I am really scratching my head with this run. First it takes it into Hondorus/Nicaragua and then it moves it north to Belize, stalls it and then pushes it back toward the Caribbean? this run = pure insanity.