Hurricane FELIX: Global & BAM Models

[cycloneye]

90 hours surface

Goes into Belize again.A wild ride it has been.

[canetracker]

90 hr 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_090l.gif

[Vortex]

Landfall in Belize and Cape verde storm begins the journey...


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_090m.gif

[cycloneye]

About long range,they are posted in Talking Tropics forum.

[Hockey007]

Heh, if this is the GFS run, I wonder what the GFDL will put out, since the GFDL is run from GFS data, but I think one of the problems is that it isn't being initialized as a cat 5, instead being a tropical depression.

[canetracker]

500mb 108 hours
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_108l.gif

[cycloneye]

108 hours surface

Splashes into southern BOC.

[cycloneye]

120 hours at 850 vorticity

Third Landfall,this one in Veracruz.Wow,what a horrible run.

[mattpetre]

Two category 5 hurricanes are going to take a heading of approx. ~280 degrees through the entire Carribean basin and hit the Yucatan peninsula. I don't think anyone could ever have imagined this scenario, these are two of the straightest tracks we've ever seen, even the wobbles are more obviously insignificant than most storms, what a crazy year for the Carribean.

[wxmann_91]

120 hours at 850 vorticity

Third Landfall,this one in Veracruz.Wow,what a horrible run.

Luis, one thing...

That isn't 850 vort.

This is:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... v_108m.gif

[canetracker]

120 hr at 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_120l.gif

This run was crazy. Will wait on the other 00z models.

[cycloneye]

Those who may be interested to see the rest of the 00z GFS run,in Talking Tropics forum it is being posted.

[mattpetre]

I just don't buy the southward shift in the NHC track. I think the track from earlier today that puts Felix near the Belize/Mexican border makes more sense... what's going to push him more to the W after reaching the next couple of forecast points... I just don't understand the models I guess. My best guess is that this will make landfall north of the Belize/Mexican border in the Yucatan...

Disclaimer: I am not a professional and my opinions are endorsed by no professional organizations including the NHC and NWS and sometimes even myself.

[Berwick Bay]

Well with all of the confusion with the GFS and of course then the GFDL I feel even more confident with the more northerly track which I laid out last Sat morning for Felix. I'll leave the models to others and stay with my simple prediction for that more northerly course into the Gulf of Mexico and the landfall which I called for back on Sat.

[ROCK]

Well with all of the confusion with the GFS and of course then the GFDL I feel even more confident with the more northerly track which I laid out last Sat morning for Felix. I'll leave the models to others and stay with my simple prediction for that more northerly course into the Gulf of Mexico and the landfall which I called for back on Sat.

I will give you this BB. You stick with your predictions even if a lot of people are seeing something totally different.....

[mattpetre]

Well with all of the confusion with the GFS and of course then the GFDL I feel even more confident with the more northerly track which I laid out last Sat morning for Felix. I'll leave the models to others and stay with my simple prediction for that more northerly course into the Gulf of Mexico and the landfall which I called for back on Sat.

I will give you this BB. You stick with your predictions even if a lot of people are seeing something totally different.....

Berwick Bay,

I stuck to my guns on Dean thinking that the ULL was going to pull him closer to a TX (Corpus Christi) landfall and was basically made to look a fool by the models and pros... is there anything you can add to back up what you think might would happen with Felix other than gut intuition? I personally see Felix as a bit more of a Northern storm than the models, but by that I still am thinking middle Yucatan and just south of Brownsville. Please let me know if there is more that you see other than the possibly eroding ridge. I get tired of people calling people people I disagree with, etc... I just think there are dynamics in place that may push this a bit more north. The trough developing in TX, the low developing off the FL, SC coast, the effects of Henriette on the ridge that will supposedly build in the GOM. I think a combination of these things lends itself to a more northward path... what are your reasons? BTW, I think D. Ortt is the only person that nailed this storm on intensity from the beginning, but his path has leaned more southward that actuality, I wonder why that might be and if the trend will continue...

[Texashawk]

Well with all of the confusion with the GFS and of course then the GFDL I feel even more confident with the more northerly track which I laid out last Sat morning for Felix. I'll leave the models to others and stay with my simple prediction for that more northerly course into the Gulf of Mexico and the landfall which I called for back on Sat.

I will give you this BB. You stick with your predictions even if a lot of people are seeing something totally different.....

Berwick Bay,

I stuck to my guns on Dean thinking that the ULL was going to pull him closer to a TX (Corpus Christi) landfall and was basically made to look a fool by the models and pros... is there anything you can add to back up what you think might would happen with Felix other than gut intuition? I personally see Felix as a bit more of a Northern storm than the models, but by that I still am thinking middle Yucatan and just south of Brownsville. Please let me know if there is more that you see other than the possibly eroding ridge. I get tired of people calling people people I disagree with, etc... I just think there are dynamics in place that may push this a bit more north. The trough developing in TX, the low developing off the FL, SC coast, the effects of Henriette on the ridge that will supposedly build in the GOM. I think a combination of these things lends itself to a more northward path... what are your reasons? BTW, I think D. Ortt is the only person that nailed this storm on intensity from the beginning, but his path has leaned more southward that actuality, I wonder why that might be and if the trend will continue...

I want to say on record that I agree with BB.

Though I am not a trained met, and will readily agree that this is only a hobby for me (one that I regret not pursuing into a career, BTW...) I will say that I don't think there is any way that this goes into Honduras - I'll eat my hat if it does. My 10-gallon hat, natch. From there, I just think that the high pressure will move/erode enough to allow Felix to move more northward (NNW) and once it gets into the southern Gulf in 6 days or so all bets are off. I just don't see how this hurricane doesn't make it to the Yucatan as more and more people seem to be saying. Storms this powerful tend to be more unpredictable - they tend to make their own rules as they go, within the global steering currents limits. Just my $0.02.

[Recurve]

But they don't plow into ridges. The models are seeing a big high.
The GFS progs a pretty strong and far south 500 MB ridge IIRC. Course that could change, but it's hard to ignore for track forecasting now.

The ABOVE post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Extremeweatherguy]

latest 00z GFDL is similar to the latest 00z GFS run (way too far south). The 00z UKMET, however, is still north...may be even a hair north of where it was on it's last run:

https://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... s/storm_06

The GFS and GFDL seem to still be the southern outliers and, for now, I am going to stick with the cluster of models further north showing a track similar to, or even further north of, the current NHC track.

[Thunder44]

0z ECMWF is out to 24hrs on Plymouth:

Surface:


500mb: