Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[miamicanes177]

It is starting to look more annular in my opinion. Notice all the bands have been dieing down and if this continues it will just be one big CDO. No I am not saying it is annular, but it looks to be headed that way.

It is not annular.

I'm glad we agree

[wxmann_91]

It is starting to look more annular in my opinion. Notice all the bands have been dieing down and if this continues it will just be one big CDO. No I am not saying it is annular, but it looks to be headed that way.

It is not annular.

I'm glad we agree

"but it looks to be headed that way"

That we agree to disagree on.

[RDTF]

Have 2 CAT 5s hit land back to back before?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

[Innotech]

Have 2 CAT 5s hit land back to back before?

Im almost certain that this would be a first in history.

[RDTF]

Have 2 CAT 5s hit land back to back before?

Im almost certain that this would be a first in history.

that's what I thought! Wow

[Coredesat]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

That is what post-analysis is for. Besides, how do you know it got better, do you have a plane?

[miamicanes177]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

It has not peaked yet because the shear is way low...no ewrc yet...and it is has not yet hit the highest heat content. It will not weaken unless an ewrc occurs. That is the only thing that will weaken it. In fact, I believe recon will find a stronger Felix. I suspect it has been intensifying at a slower rate since recon left a few hours ago, but it should be stronger at any rate. Pressure about 928mb would be my guess and who knows what the winds will be. I think they were 185mph or so earlier.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

That is what post-analysis is for. Besides, how do you know it got better, do you have a plane?

It looked stronger but of course safety is the highest concern.

[brunota2003]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

I'd much rather never know the peak than have all the Recon data in the world and further missions canceled because the plane went down and the crew perished. There is no chance for survival out there if they had to ditch in the storm, none. Turbulence does a big number on aircraft, including shearing off the wings, which if you are in the eyewall, can provide for a very...um...interesting couple minutes until you hit the water. If it doesn't bring the plane down, the structural damage to the plane by both the turbulence and hail would be enough to put the aircraft out of operation for weeks, if not months. It would take a very lengthy inspection before they would even let the plane leave the ground and return to Florida, if they didn't send it to the boneyard after the initial inspection. Both of my parents are former Marines and both worked on aircraft...I am well aware of what turbulence can do to an aircraft and can tell you it is not worth it for just some data. Who cares if we will never know the peak, I do not. As long as the aircraft and crew return in one piece and are not damaged. If you want to know what I am talking about, go read Dr. Masters blog about his flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
[/steps off rant box] (not directed at you)

[MGC]

I don't get the obsession with annular hurricanes...the NHC is doing a good job so far with the forecast track IMO. Felix should peak between tonight and tomorrow evening as he approaches the northern Honduras coast. If Felix crosses the Honduran coast it will be somewhat of a blessing for Belize as it should knock Felix down a bit. Could still be a strong Cat-3 at landfall in Belize/Yucatan.....MGC

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Not only did the reds thicken around the eye, but surface data of over 160 knots will never be confirmed, also the system was going through a IRC. I thank god for the safety of the crew, and happy they are home.,,

I'm just stating what the data shown,,,and satellite shown after the recon had lefted.

Looks like some reds are trying to wrap again.

[Ptarmigan]

Im almost certain that this would be a first in history.

Now, having two almost back to back Category 5 hurricane is active.

[miamicanes177]

a pic to get everyone through the blackout...0500 shot and it's looking very healthy indeed

[pojo]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

I'd much rather never know the peak than have all the Recon data in the world and further missions canceled because the plane went down and the crew perished. There is no chance for survival out there if they had to ditch in the storm, none. Turbulence does a big number on aircraft, including shearing off the wings, which if you are in the eyewall, can provide for a very...um...interesting couple minutes until you hit the water. If it doesn't bring the plane down, the structural damage to the plane by both the turbulence and hail would be enough to put the aircraft out of operation for weeks, if not months. It would take a very lengthy inspection before they would even let the plane leave the ground and return to Florida, if they didn't send it to the boneyard after the initial inspection. Both of my parents are former Marines and both worked on aircraft...I am well aware of what turbulence can do to an aircraft and can tell you it is not worth it for just some data. Who cares if we will never know the peak, I do not. As long as the aircraft and crew return in one piece and are not damaged. If you want to know what I am talking about, go read Dr. Masters blog about his flight into Hurricane Hugo in 1989.
[/steps off rant box] (not directed at you)

brunota, you said it best. Crew Safety is the UTMOST importance on those flights... aircraft are replaceable... people are not.

and Matt.... we are the ONLY country in the WORLD that has recon. Be thankful for that. All of the Hurricane Hunter aircrafts take a beating (NOAA and AFRES).... without our maintenance personnel, NO aircraft would be flying.... and the NHC would have to rely on ship reports or satellite.

[Coredesat]

Actually, the CDO appears to have increased in size. The system is moving out of the high heat content eddy (eye appears to have passed 74W):



Ignore the forecast points since those are from 18Z.

[pojo]

By the time recon gets into this, this will be well off its peak. We will never know the peak of Felix. The system got better once the recon had headed home, also with only run through the storm found some amazing surface winds.

don't say a word UNTIL you've FLOWN thru a Hurricane. Flying thru these systems is no joke.

[Windspeed]

From the recon discussion thread:

The cloud tops are warmer=less able to transport the winds down.

Wanted to bring it here to avoid getting off topic over there. Sorry, hope my reply of "staying on topic" didn't sound obtuse. To be clear, the cloud tops are plenty cool to represent an intense eyewall. I can assure you winds are getting down to the surface. Yes, the difference between a large band of -65 and a large band of -75ºC cloud tops are certainly negligible, but not to the point of missrepresenting the intensity of convection in the eyewall. The idea is we have also not had a new AVN image since 3:45utc, so the -75C tops may have expanded again, but point on, it's not as if the CDO is falling apart. Winds are getting to the surface. I think we might see 145+kt winds in the NE eyewall represented at the surface if they penetrate it.

[Scorpion]

Looks like Felix will hit another eddy before hitting Honduras.. bad news for them

[weatherguru18]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 030558
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
200 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES RAPIDLY
WESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LIMON HONDURAS TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 200 AM EDT...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.9 WEST OR ABOUT 295 MILES...
475 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA...AND ABOUT 555
MILES...890 KM...EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE
NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR. A MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE COMMON
IN MAJOR HURRICANES AND ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE
STATUS DURING THIS PERIOD.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25
MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM AN
AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB...27.61 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
OVER THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA.

REPEATING THE 200 AM EDT POSITION...14.0 N...74.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB