Hurricane Félix: RECON Discussion

Website · #221 Postby **Brent** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:33 am

The plot thickens...

URNT12 KNHC 030730
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/06:57:50Z
B. 14 deg 02 min N
075 deg 19 min W
C. 700 mb 2556 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 325 deg 121 kt
G. 223 deg 006 nm
H. 936 mb
I. 9 C/ 3051 m
J. 26 C/ 3047 m
K. 12 C/ NA
L. CLOSED
M. C10
N. 12345/ 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF305 1006A FELIX OB 13
MAX FL WIND 155 KT NW QUAD 07:07:50Z

miamicanes177 · #222 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:35 am

ok WTH...936mb? Should be between 926-930mb I thought...and 155kts NW quad? Should be NE quad?

Thunder44 · #223 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:37 am

miamicanes177 wrote:ok WTH...936mb? Should be between 926-930mb I thought...and 155kts NW quad? Should be NE quad?

That looks like an error there. 155kts was found in the NE Quad.

miamicanes177 · #224 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:40 am

H. 931 mb

Corrected VDM

miamicanes177 · #225 Postby **miamicanes177** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 2:43 am

MAX FL WIND 155 KT NE QUAD 07:07:50Z

Corrected to NE quad....and now I'm off to bed!

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #226 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:42 am

Should be taking a try at the eye se to nw or so in the next half hour.

I think they will find a cat4 this time...With pressure maybe as high as 938 millbars.

Thunder44 · #227 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:49 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Should be taking a try at the eye se to nw or so in the next half hour.

I think they will find a cat4 this time...With pressure maybe as high as 938 millbars.

From looking at convection pattern on infrared imagery, it looks like the RI phase may have ended, but the eye appears to be shrinking. I don't think it's an EWRC, because the plane this morning didn't report another eyewall. I wouldn't be suprised if it's maintained it strength or a little stronger.

superfly · #228 Postby **superfly** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:27 am

Looks like it's holding steady at 140-145kts with no sign of double wind maxima.

Thunder44 · #229 Postby **Thunder44** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 6:32 am

They found a max wind at FL of 158kts in NW Quad. They might find stronger winds in the NE Quad. Although the extrap pressures are up.

#230 Postby **hiflyer** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:42 am

CNN just interviewed the Captain of the P3 that aborted yesterday...turns out they took -4 to +4 g's attempting to penetrate the eyewall which is a technical overstress of the airframe and caused the return to base. Aircraft is still being checked out today by maintenance.

gotoman38 · #231 Postby **gotoman38** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:09 am

hiflyer wrote:CNN just interviewed the Captain of the P3 that aborted yesterday...turns out they took -4 to +4 g's attempting to penetrate the eyewall which is a technical overstress of the airframe and caused the return to base. Aircraft is still being checked out today by maintenance.

WOW - that's got to be a scary ride! I'm glad they made it back safely. I wonder if they'll have to take the aircraft out of service?

Chacor · #232 Postby **Chacor** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:21 am

NOAA P3 flights scheduled for September 4 have been cancelled.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING FIX FOR 04/2100Z
HAS BEEN ADDED TO TODAY'S AIR FORCE MISSION.
NOAA P-3 MISSIONS FOR 04/0000Z AND 04/1200Z HAVE
BEEN CANCELED.

gotoman38 · #233 Postby **gotoman38** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:36 am

Chacor wrote:NOAA P3 flights scheduled for September 4 have been cancelled.

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
REMARKS: A RESOURCES PERMITTING FIX FOR 04/2100Z
HAS BEEN ADDED TO TODAY'S AIR FORCE MISSION.
NOAA P-3 MISSIONS FOR 04/0000Z AND 04/1200Z HAVE
BEEN CANCELED.

Looks like the aircraft is indeed out of service. My guess is they'll have to replace the aircraft - no rest for the ground crews.

Frank2 · #234 Postby **Frank2** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:38 am

That's similar to what happened during a flight in Hugo (1989) - except, in that event, they also lost an engine...

At that time, there were also reports that the NOAA P-3 involved "would never fly again" (not sure if it's the same one), but, after careful inspection, it was found to be airworthy...

It's also important that they be carefully checked before being returned to service, since both NOAA P-3 are now over 30 years old - any internal fatigue in an older aircraft that would normally amount to only scheduled maintenance repair for an airliner, could amount to the loss of the aircraft, when flying in conditions such as last night's...

Frank

#235 Postby **HenkL** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:12 am

The new flight (AF306 1206A) can be followed in GoogleEarth.
My website now contains a special page about this feature: http://wxgr.nl/?weer_recon.htm
Always use the link on that site to get the GE-file, because perhaps the files will be relocated to another server later on. The page on the website will always contain the correct link.

gotoman38 · #236 Postby **gotoman38** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:18 am

HenkL wrote:The new flight (AF306 1206A) can be followed in GoogleEarth.
My website now contains a special page about this feature: http://wxgr.nl/?weer_recon.htm
Always use the link on that site to get the GE-file, because perhaps the files will be relocated to another server later on. The page on the website will always contain the correct link.

That bookmark is a KEEPER!

#237 Postby **brunota2003** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:26 am

hiflyer wrote:CNN just interviewed the Captain of the P3 that aborted yesterday...turns out they took -4 to +4 g's attempting to penetrate the eyewall which is a technical overstress of the airframe and caused the return to base. Aircraft is still being checked out today by maintenance.

Holy crap! If the data is still correct from 1989, the P-3 is only rated to +3 and -2 G's, meaning they very well may find damage. Hopefully none is found, but jeeze. That must of been one hell of a ride in. Expect that P-3 to possibly be down for weeks, if not a month or two, as they will do a very strigent inspection of every piece of the aircraft. Every rivet, every engine, etc. They will not let it fly again until they know it has completely cleared inspection.

#238 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:48 am

What is up with the loops en route to a storm?

gotoman38 · #239 Postby **gotoman38** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 11:51 am

fact789 wrote:What is up with the loops en route to a storm?

I'm thinking it might be some sort of final aircraft/systems check before they in the thick stuff - it's just a guess - but it's the kind of thing that I would do as part of my routine.

EDIT: Or a "crazy Ivan" to shake the submarines. :lol:

#240 Postby **pojo** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:55 pm

NOAA2 & NOAA3 are heading back.... NOAA3 is airworthy to get home... then its most likely grounded (we do that to our planes from time to time.)

Felix is getting to far out from St. Croix... hence the reason why the cutbacks for both fleet.... we should actually be flying out of Keesler... but we aren't.

I couldn't tell you what happened on the aircraft (NOAA3) even though I knew... we found out almost instantly from CARCAH when it happened and knew they were on their way back..... the Aircraft Commander made the decision to come back to St. Croix because of safety. P3 are 30 years old.... structurally, they can't handle more than +3Gs/-2Gs....

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