Eye?

[OtherHD]

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

I really hate to jump the gun, especially considering I've been very conservative this season but...

You know the drill...medium zoom on TD3-E with a 20 image loop and tell me if you see what could be the beginnings of an eye. This is a fairly small system and could strengthen very rapidly, so I don't think it's out of the question.

Meanwhile our western Caribbean system is struggling with shear from TD3-E and the trough to its north. The circulation you are seeing with that is probably a transient mid level swirl, much like we saw last night. But it's a little harder to tell by looking at visible imagery because of its closeness to land. QuikSCAT will reveal the answer.

[chadtm80]

It sure does HD.. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[rainstorm]

hopefully it wont develop too quick. it will hurt the chances of anything in the gom

[ColdFront77]

An area of shear to the west of the system in the eastern Pacific will have to decrease pretty soon in order for this to continue to develop.

[rainstorm]

yep, it looks to me there is quite a bit of ne shear in the gom, and carlos could cause that to increase.

[ColdFront77]

As I said, Helen... I am referring to the shear to the west of Tropical Storm Carlos.

[vbhoutex]

Before I was so rudely interrupted by a heavy thunderstorm as I was typing a post I will try to respond again.

What I think you were seeing was an area of collapsing convection very near the center of circulation of this system. At that time it appears to me it was beginning a strengthening phase. Now that they have called TS Carlos, I think it is becoming obvious that was happening. It is way too early for an "eye" to be forming. An eye will not form on a TC until it is at or near hurricane strength at the earlliest. An obvious center of circulation which may have less rain than the bands around it may be evident, but a true eye will not form in a storm of Carlos' strength.

[wxman57]

Actually, a true eye is a feature generally found only in major hurricanes (cat 3 or higher). I don't recall ever seeing a Cat 1 storm, much less a developing TS with an eye. You may see an exposed center of a weaker storm, but that's not an eye.

As an aside, remember back in 1995 when there were so many storms forming that the NHC was having trouble keeping up? I think they were busy with Luis near the Caribbean when either Marco or the "N" storm had just begun developing near Africa. We were watching this storm off to the east and really began sawing a true eye overnight. Problem was, the NHC was calling it a minimal TS with 35kt winds! Since an eye feature is a sign of a very strong hurricane, we were all wondering how the NHC would recover with the 10am CDT advisory. Well, they only bumped up the intensity a little, and said that it appeared that a "rain-free central area may be forming", so the storm might actualy be a lot stronger than indicated. That rain-free central area was a well developed cloud-free eye in a very strong hurricane! Oops!

[wx247]

Regardless of wind speed, rain totals look to be between 8-15" from this TS in Mexico.

[Derek Ortt]

While I was looking at all of the vortex messages, as well as P3 radar for Lili when it was a TS, there was an eye. Recon has reported fully closed eye walls for many tropical storms. However, they usually don't appear on sat imagery until about 75KT. (though after looking at the P3 radar, some of those reports need to be questioned as the eye wall appeared to be open at many times when it was reported to be closed

[wxman57]

I'm talking about a nice, open, clearly visible stadium-effect eye. You don't see such a think on tropical storms. Tropical storms have a central region with decreased winds and convection wrapping around, but that's not really an eye.

[Derek Ortt]

Yeah, the visible satium effect typically isnt found on anything less than a strong cat 3. I was referring to the formation of an eye wall. I have rarely seen a TS with an eye on sat images and if one is visible, it is always extremely poorly defined.

[wxman57]

It just depends on what you call an "eye". Even a TD or very weak TS will have a radar presentation showing a rain-free center surrounded by a ring of convection. But is that an eye? I call it a center.

[Colin]

I agree with wxman on this one... I really don't think it's an "eye" unless it's a CAT 3+... anything below that is visible, but not TOTALLY open and clear.