Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[cheezyWXguy]

HURRICANE FELIX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
800 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE FELIX CONTINUES MOVING QUICKLY
WESTWARD...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO
THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE ALSO LIKELY OVER
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HONDURAS FROM WEST OF LIMON
WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA...AND THE
GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE
COAST OF BELIZE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND FOR GRAND
CAYMAN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELIX WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.9 WEST OR ABOUT 260 MILES...
425 KM...SOUTH OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AND ABOUT 425 MILES...685 KM...
EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

FELIX IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 21 MPH...33 KM/HR...AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF FELIX WILL BE NEAR THE COASTS OF
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS EARLY ON
TUESDAY MORNING.

OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 165 MPH...270 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. FELIX IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY
ARE COMMON IN MAJOR HURRICANES...BUT FELIX IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
CATEGORY FOUR OR FIVE STATUS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

ALTHOUGH FELIX IS AN EXTREMELY POWERFUL HURRICANE IT HAS A VERY
SMALL WIND FIELD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30
MILES...45 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT DATA IS 937 MB...27.67 INCHES.

FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 5 TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...14.2 N...76.9 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 21 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...165 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

I thought there was a VDM that said 931mb...not 937. Are there any remarks in RECON that say that it could be undergoing an ERC soon? The advisory above doesnt seem to think so, but you never know

[wxman57]

Just got a new vortex that said 938mb. Pressure up, FL winds are down a bit on the 1st pass, anyway. Here it is:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 3/1109Z
B. 14 DEG 9 MIN N
76 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2582 M
D. 140 KT
E. 120 DEG 5 NM
F. 190 DEG 130 KT
G. 120 DEG 5 NM
H. 938 MB
I. 12 C/3072 M
J. 25 C/3023 M
K. 12 C/NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C08
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. NOAA3 1106A FELIX OB 09 AL062007
MAX FL WIND 130 KT SE QUAD 1105Z
MAX SFMR WIND 140 KT SE QUAD 1105Z
STADIUM EFFECT

[wxman57]

Just got a new vortex:

VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL042007
A. 03/1109Z
B. 14 DEG 09 MIN N
76 DEG 40 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2582 M
D. 140 KT
E. 120 DEG 05 NM
F. 190 DEG 130 KTS
G. 120 DEG 052 NM
H. 938 MB
I. 12 C/ 3072 M
J. 25 C/ 3023 M
K. 12C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C08
N. 12345/7
O. 1/2 NM
P. N0AA32 1106A FELIX OB 09 AL062007
MAX SFMR WND 140 FROM SE QUAD
MAX FL WIND EXITING TO NW 162KTS AT 1111Z

[HURAKAN]

No sings of an EWRC. Amazing.

[cheezyWXguy]

No sings of an EWRC. Amazing.

Yeah that is weird...This thing must have an amazing structure in order to hold it together that long...Dean went through probably 3 ERC's in the Caribbean.

[caneman]

nice stadiium effect taking place.

[wxman57]

Speaking of stadium effect:

[PhillyWX]

The heat content in this part of the Caribbean (where Felix is as of 8 AM) is not as high as it was when Felix blew up yesterday. However, expect for another possible improvement in satellite presentation (above what is now) when it travels over the yellows and oranges between 78 and 82 W later on today.

We may have Cat 5 to landfall unless it hits an ERC.

[cheezyWXguy]

Red is filling in the core again on AVN imagery. One thing I love to watch, especially in strong hurricanes like this, is when they form huge deep convection in their bands, and spiral them into their core, like Dean did and Felix is doing now. I know thats the purpose of feeder bands, but its fun to watch all the components work together to keep such a strong storm going

[Frank P]

Hey wxman57 your earlier forecasts for this system from several days back looking pretty good... you, NHC, along with several other mets on the board have nailed Felix thus far.. back to back straight line Cat5s in almost the same locale.... amazing to say the least..

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[ronjon]

Nice call Wxman57 - in Euro we Trust should be the motto this year (maybe every year) - doesn't it have the best track record in the 3-5 day range? Poor people in Honduras and Nic - they will get smashed but I understand the NE side of the country is sparsely populated but I think the heavy rain and mudslides will probably kill alot more people than the strong winds or tidal surge. Switching gears - what do you think about that disturbance off the GA/FL coast? This area looks very ripe for development.

[RDTF]

Nice call Wxman57 - in Euro we Trust should be the motto this year (maybe every year) - doesn't it have the best track record in the 3-5 day range? Poor people in Honduras and Nic - they will get smashed but I understand the NE side of the country is sparsely populated but I think the heavy rain and mudslides will probably kill alot more people than the strong winds or tidal surge. Switching gears - what do you think about that disturbance off the GA/FL coast? This area looks very ripe for development.

there is a coastal town in Honduras with a fairly busy airport called Puerto Lempira, with direct flights to and from the US. Right in Felix's path.

[Nimbus]

WXman57 nailed the track now whats going to happen with the intensity? Watching that eye on the water vapor loop shrink down to 10 miles. Must be an ERC on the way. Kind of bad timing for Honduras since that would give Felix too much time to regenerate before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

the intensity does not matter at landfall

It is the flooding and mudslides that do

[Nimbus]

If Felix comes back as a larger storm after an ERC...

[Buck]

Intesity does matter for the coastal towns that have to worry about winds just as much as mudslides and flash floods. But overall, it's size more than winds.

[HURAKAN]

Intesity does matter for the coastal towns that have to worry about winds just as much as mudslides and flash floods. But overall, it's size more than winds.

Even if Félix drops to 100 mph, for the poor people of Central America this will be terrible.

[flamingosun]

RDTF -
What about the people on the Bay Islands? are thereevacuations to the Mainland, or will most of them stay there?

[HURAKAN]

RDTF -
What about the people on the Bay Islands? Will many of them be able to evacuate to the Mainland?

That will depend on the Honduran government. I believe the NHC has already expressed them the high level of threat Félix is for their safety. Honduras has had a lot of experience with hurricanes and I think they know how to react. Lets hope everyone gets out of those islands.