Area off Georgia coast

ronjon · #81 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:30 am

Well, I don't understand why this is not an investigation already. It's close to the US, has deep convection, a surface low pressure, favorable shear conditions, and warm SSTs. Did I leave anything out? lol. Seriously, this area has model support too. Last night I speculated that development of this feature could infuence Felix's path. After looking at Felix's path overnight, I have to conclude that Felix is just too far south to be affected by this low or the TX trough.

#82 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:33 am

Agree.

Latest:

cpdaman · #83 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:50 am

from MIA NOAA DISCUSSION

HIGH UNCERTAINLY REMAINS WITH EVENTUAL STRENGTH/MOVEMENT
OF THE SURFACE LOW. MARINERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE PLANNING TO
VENTURE OFFSHORE MID-LATE WEEK ARE ADVISED TO CHECK FORECAST
UPDATES.

seems now the gfs is bearish and the NAM is bullish which i think is the opposite of saturday.

from 4am JACKSONVILLE NOAA DISCUSSION

they say the NAM has a better handle and go with this solution and forecast strenghtening in 18-36 hours

.FOR TOMORROW...MODELS SHOW THAT A JET AXIS WILL DIG AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC.

let' C

flwxwatcher · #84 Postby **flwxwatcher** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:21 am

Alot of uncertainty about this feature.The 0Z GFS doesn't do too much with this feature , other models like the NOGAPS develope it and have it loop back towards North Carolina , The UKMET developes it and loops it back into Florida. Interesting week ahead it seems.

0z NOGAPS
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ngptc2.c ... =Animation

0Z UKMET
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

0Z GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

#85 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:33 am

I know that Mr F is the big talk right now. But I am surprised no one is really talking about what is close to home on what could happen with it.

With that said This low is over the gulf stream now if not very close. I wouldn't take it likely with this one. I know it is caught Between the hight and the ridge. But it has time to just sit there and brew. It would be nice to get about 4-5 ins of rain from this I know that is -removed-.

jdray · #86 Postby **jdray** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:34 am

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
345 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007

.SYNOPSIS...SURFACE LOW EVIDENT ON SATELLITE APPROXIMATELY 150 MI
EAST OF JACKSONVILLE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. HIGHER INSTABILITY
OVER THE WATERS (WARMER TEMPS AND HIGHER DEW POINTS IN ADDITION TO
SUPPORT FROM THE LOW) ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WHILE SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS GENERALLY DIMINISHED OVER LAND. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW DRIER AIR FILTERING BEHIND THE LOW WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS.

.FOR TODAY...MODELS HAVE SOME DEGREE OF DISAGREEMENT OVER THE
EXACT DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. NAM AND THE RUC SEEM TO HAVE
THE BEST HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS
THIS SOLUTION. UPPER DIVERGENCE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE
GREATEST OVER THE FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS AND FLORIDA COAST...SO
EXPECT THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS. PWAT WILL
DECREASE ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
TROPICAL AIRMASS...PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES...AND WEAK STEERING FLOW
WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IN AFOREMENTIONED FLORIDA AREAS.
PRECIPITATION LOADING MAY ENHANCE DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP.

.FOR TOMORROW...MODELS SHOW THAT A JET AXIS WILL DIG AROUND THE
UPPER HIGH AND DEEPEN THE SURFACE LOW OVER THE ATLANTIC. DRIER AIR
WILL THEN WRAP AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW...LEADING
TO DECREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED CONTINUES...AND IS
DEPENDENT UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW.
THE GENERAL AGREEMENT IS THAT DRIER AIR AND LOWER CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID WEEK AS THE LOW SLOWLY
DRIFTS EASTWARD AND LINGERS WITH NO WELL DEFINED SYSTEM TO KICK
IT OUT. BY THE END OF THE WEEK THE LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT BACK
TOWARDS FLORIDA WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC SUPPORT FOR
INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A
DEGREE OR TWO OF CLIMATOLOGY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.

caneman · #87 Postby **caneman** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:38 am

some sustained winds have been going on offshore at 20 mph with 25 mph gusts.

#88 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 8:40 am

It seem that they have their own forcast. here is part of wilm's

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOW CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO WHERE THE LOW OFF THE SC/GA COAST
WILL BE LOCATED AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...LET ALONE BY
FRIDAY. AT ANY RATE WITH A LOW LIKELY DRIFTING OFF THE SE COAST AND
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING IN FROM THE NORTH THE FLOW SHOULD BE FROM
THE NE-E. THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
OFFSHORE TO LIMIT WIND SPEEDS TO <15 KT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
THEN BIG QUESTION MARKS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LATEST GFS
DRIFTING THE LOW BACK TO THE SC COAST BY SATURDAY.

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #89 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:08 am

I hope I get Good Surf from
this if winds start coming in from the
west along tampa bay/west coast since we are south of center
by 120 miles!!!!

Nothing like some good labor day Surf!!!!!!!!!

Cmon become a depression and give me surf
I am -removed- I know it!!!!

Also conditions appear favorable for development.

I hope it does not hurt anybody though...

#90 Postby **shortwave** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:16 am

yeah surf should be decent over here too.. doesn't look like the system will come to far south. should make for a nice offshore breeze

#91 Postby **fci** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:30 am

And offshore breeze might allow daytome heating and seabreezes to develop some nice thunderstorms to feed out lawns and Lake O.

Lets hope so...

Tampa Bay Hurricane · #92 Postby **Tampa Bay Hurricane** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:32 am

Yes guys this could be a great rainmaker

Fill up lake ockeeechobee....and get that surf riled up baby!

#93 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:36 am

Lake Ockeeechobee will not fill back up till they shut the locks to hold the water.

#94 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:43 am

LATEST.

#95 Postby **storms in NC** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:56 am

RDU

THERE CONTINUES TO BE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THE
SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE SE COAST. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH AND HOPE
FOR A NE JOG...BUT THAT WISHFUL SCENARIO IS NOT LOOKING PROMISING AS
THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS REMAINS STRONGEST ACROSS THE AREA. FINALLY
THE 00Z GFS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A LESS AMPLIFIED SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY.

&

#96 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:19 am

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 3 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON CATEGORY FIVE
HURRICANE FELIX...LOCATED ABOUT 365 MILES EAST OF CABO GRACIAS A
DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER.

A SLOW-MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES AND IS ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...THE
CIRCULATION REMAINS WELL-DEFINED AND THERE IS STILL SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES EAST OF
THE GEORGIA COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS
EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER PASCH/RHOME

#97 Postby **Stephanie** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:27 am

This is what the NAM has at 84 hours;

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

cpdaman · #98 Postby **cpdaman** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:48 am

http://www.weatherunderground.com/satel ... 1k/US.html

2 large area of t-storm blobs "erupting" over Gulf stream and assorted convection in and around area

first is 200 miles east of jacksonville the other 200 miles se of wilmington

anyone know what JB says bout this WXMAN57 where are u

cheers and enjoy the day

something tells me this has potential

vacanechaser · #99 Postby **vacanechaser** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:51 am

cpdaman wrote:http://www.weatherunderground.com/satellite/vis/1k/US.html

2 large area of t-storm blobs "erupting" over Gulf stream and assorted convection in and around area

first is 200 miles east of jacksonville the other 200 miles se of wilmington

anyone know what JB says bout this WXMAN57 where are u

cheers and enjoy the day

something tells me this has potential

joe has not said anything about it this morning... still waiting for that as he made this call a few days ago...

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

PhillyWX · #100 Postby **PhillyWX** » Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:14 pm

It'll be interesting to watch this...the 12z GFS has this system eventually coming inland over the Carolinas and then tracking north up the coast towards the Mid-Atlantic along the trough that will dig across the US later this week.

That trough will also pick up the remnants of Henriette and pull them across the US. This could be a rainy situation for the Eastern US this next weekend.

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