Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[miamicanes177]

Figuring out what model to follow was the key (ECMWF).

Derek Ortt said ECWF is not a reliable tropical model. I think he said something about it being a mid latitude model.

[RDTF]

according to this blogger, resort tourists were evacuated this weekend from the Bay Islands

http://roatan.blog.com/

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well after seeing the success of the ECMWF with Dean and now Felix, I am definitely going to take it more seriously next time!

[Chacor]

ECMWF has been on-the-spot with Fitow in the WPac as well, calling it as far as 10 days out. Not reliable? Maybe it wasn't, but it's certainly getting more so it would seem.

[wxmann_91]

Figuring out what model to follow was the key (ECMWF).

Derek Ortt said ECWF is not a reliable tropical model. I think he said something about it being a mid latitude model.

ECMWF is a very reliable mid-latitude model, yes. But what occurs at the mid-latitude influences what occurs at the tropics. It is important not only to look at the tracks that certain models take a cyclone, but also the synoptic influences that would steer a cyclone. ECMWF has done extraordinarily well because the synoptic pattern has been simple for both Dean and Felix.

ECM is a bad model for tropical cyclogenesis, but superb for track forecasting. That's why it trumped every other model in 2006. It seems to be superior in the WPAC and ATL but not so good in EPAC, though.

[HURAKAN]

LATEST:

[theworld]

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it may be down to Cat 4 (at least for the moment).

[Derek Ortt]

the ECMWF has been performing very well this season... cannot deny that fact at all

[MiamiensisWx]

An ERC is definitely occurring per those images, structure, and microwave data. The convective band has largely enveloped the inner core, and the warming cloud tops indicate some possible dry air intrusion. The mid-level ridge remains in place to the north of Felix, so it may not complete the concentric eyewall structure before landfall, in my opinion. The anemic presentation probably suggests Felix's sfc winds have decreased to Category 4 status. The RMW and windfield should expand as it approaches Nicaragua and Honduras. You should ignore the visible presentation and look at the inner structure and IR.

You can see the secondary outer eyewall forming in the last frame:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2007_06L/webManager/basicGifDisplay.html

Personally, the warm eddy ahead of Felix probably won't aid further intensification (assuming current trends continue over the next several hours). The fast forward motion should take Felix to the coastline within 24 hours, and a slight decrease in forward motion probably won't help the cyclone. Note the expanding cirrus outflow and convective banding. I doubt it will weaken below Category 4 status before landfall, but I certainly don't see reintensification to Category 5 intensity, in my opinion.

[Ptarmigan]

Honduras should prepare for Felix.

[RL3AO]

Cat 5 landfall seems pretty slim odds right now.

[theworld]

[miamicanes177]

Cat 5 landfall seems pretty slim odds right now.

yeh only 162kts in the NW quad last pass ...wait for the recon data before making statements like that. I heard the same thing with Dean 12 hours before landfall.

[Derek Ortt]

the eye is fairly small... the EWRC could be very quick, similar to hwo it was with Andrew

[theworld]

more temps

[Buck]

Honduras should prepare for Felix.

Well, I'd say.

[CrazyC83]

There is a chance it could go back into intensification by this evening with the small eye and very warm waters still ahead of it...

[wxmann_91]

It's not about the size of the eye, it's about the intensity of the outer eyewall. Dry air entrainment has hurt the outer eyewall. Thus, I am not expecting the ERC to complete prior to final landfall on the Nicaragua/Honduras border.

[MiamiensisWx]

yeh only 162kts in the NW quad last pass ...wait for the recon data before making statements like that. I heard the same thing with Dean 12 hours before landfall.

That pass occurred several hours ago, and the satellite IR presentation has deteriorated. They could find flight-level winds near 160 kts while sfc winds have weakened. Additionally, the eye has filled and has become less distinct in the latest visible shots. Look at the size of the outer eyewall, which (per wxmann_91) goes against another intensification phase. The final intensity shouldn't matter for the people in Central America; everyone should realize that a Category 4 storm will not be a cakewalk. Additionally, the expanding circulation could influence heavier precipitation over a greater area.