GFS at it again!! 18z GFS

[Vortex]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_252l.gif

[Vortex]

After passing over PR as a severe hurricane

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_276l.gif

[Sanibel]

I think GFS finally got one wrong. (I hope!)

[Meso]

Well in the long range models thread it's been showing the system for quite a while and one time moving it over Florida

[Steve Cosby]

I think GFS finally got one wrong. (I hope!)

It also loses Felix in 48 hours.

This is a trash run.

[Meso]

Um.. The GFS has never picked up on Felix,EVER.Maybe 1 or 2 runs closing it off.This run isn't a random thing.. It's been showing that storm for ages now. And most other models agree with a strong storm moving off the African coast in about 100 Hours.The CMC deepens it rapidly and the Ukmet also developed it if I remember correctly,along with the NOGAPS. I`m fairly confident some storm will form off the coast in 3 - 5 days,since the models have been showing a surge of moisture in around that period along with a low pressured tropical wave for a while.

PS. I`m not saying it will end up being like that at 250+ hours,but may well be something of the sort

[N2FSU]

Perhaps the cluster at 15W is what it sees: http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=ir&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050724.2115.msg1.ir.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15

[Meso]

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97671

[flwxwatcher]

The 0Z GFS is still intent in bringing a hurricane across the Atlantic in the longer range . Time will tell..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... /fpc.shtml

[Gustywind]

The 0Z GFS is still intent in bringing a hurricane across the Atlantic in the longer range . Time will tell
Yeah flwxwatcher, we can put some confindence in this one, i'm very amazed by the persistence of this long tracker...no doubts we should see definitely something cooking in the next 48h-72h as Meso mentionned in her last greats posts Just a matter of time.....

[Meso]

Her? O_o *looks down* nuh uh!Think it's due time for an avatar change

[Gustywind]

Excuse me meso, my apologizes!!!

[vacanechaser]

here is the 6z run... the last frame of that run... i guess it is developing the wave coming off africa now...







Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Stephanie]

That's too scary for words!

[Meso]

Arghhh so many threads on the same thing!! Confusing... Long Term Models thread has been following the GFS's long range view on this system for a few days now.

[Stephanie]

We're always going to see multiple threads on possibilities of storms between the Long Range Model thread you have and threads such as this one and the "Wave Coming Off of Africa". The Long Range thread is always going to show potential storms while the other threads are going to discuss specific potential storms.

We don't want to give our members the feeling that they can't start a new thread, unless it's an obvious duplicate.

[Meso]

But that's the thing. The title of this is "gfs at it again" and the original post was a 252 hour run.Which is long range.And what's been discussed on long range models.It seemed too far out to make a thread on this wave before.And this is just for the GFS and not the actual storm it seems,as many models show this.I created the "Wave Coming Off of Africa" because it's in a short term time frame (under 144 hours).And also the "Wave to come off africa coast this week".. Since that's this storm that's being talked about,but with input from all models of the system.Just seemed weird that the exact same thing was being discussed here as in the long range thread.I agree one shouldn't be afraid to create new threads.But this wasn't really about the area,and more about just 1 run of the GFS,I think there was another thread also about 1 GFS run.I'm not flaming the creator or anything just a lot easier when all model runs over say 144 hours is in one thread and all discussions on a certain system or system-to-be in a thread dedicated to that area