Area off Georgia coast

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

Invest soon:

[LarryWx]

It is not just a Fla or Ga storm. From fla to NC. Time is what it is allll about.

I'd add in the rest of the east coast also. There is the possibility of the main east coast target being somewhere in the NE US with most or all of the SE being bypassed. Or of course, nobody getting hit is obviously quite possible.

[vacanechaser]

here is the latest 12z canadian... it of course goes nuts with it... however, the timing seems to be coming together with the other models near saturday or sunday with this thing hitting or coming close to the north carolina coast











Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[storms in NC]

That is true All about timing. It would be nice for the rain. But because we need the rain it will bypass us and go out to sea or farther up north.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I hope a strong west wind develops
to the south of this area and gives me
great surf by pushing high surf onto
clearwater beach WAHOOOOO!!!!!!!!

[PhillyWX]

It is not just a Fla or Ga storm. From fla to NC. Time is what it is allll about.

I'd add in the rest of the east coast also. There is the possibility of the main east coast target being somewhere in the NE US with most or all of the SE being bypassed. Or of course, nobody getting hit is obviously quite possible.

I'm concerned about this one being a rain maker up here this weekend and it has gotten zero play on TV by any of the weatherguys here. I'd like to see another run or two of the GFS before I really start honking for a tropical rainstorm in the Mid-Atlantic but today's 12z run was a real interesting one for us.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 205:

SPECIAL FEATURES

A LOW PRES AREA IS OFF THE GEORGIA COASTLINE CENTERED NEAR
31N79W...ESTIMATED TO BE 1013 MB. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS SOME IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION WITH LOW-LEVEL TURNING
EASILY APPARENT. AT THE MOMENT...THIS LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT
FRONTAL IN NATURE WITH A SHIELD OF LOW CLOUDS LINEARLY SHAPED TO
THE E OF THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
SLOW TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM
MOSTLY TO THE E OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.

[storms in NC]

Now this may get people going here.

Thanks HURAKAN

[LarryWx]

From my perspective, the crucial thing will be what this low does between now and Wed. night. The more the east component of motion, the better chance that much or all of the SE coast is bypassed and either the NE gets the main hit or nobody in the U.S. is hit directly. So, if it were to get all the way to, say, 70W as of Wed. night, the chances of it ever coming back to the SE US (especially FL/GA/SC) would imho be quite low and would, therefore, increase the risk to the NE of a direct hit. However, if it were to only go east to, say, ~74-75W, as of Wed. night, then the chance of it coming back to the SE would rise substantially.

IF it were to only go as far east as ~74-75W, then the latitude becomes crucial as far as who in the SE is at most risk to be hit. If it is, say, 32 N or further north, I'd think GA/FL would be pretty much safe and SC/NC at the highest risk. If within the 30-32 N range, I'd have to think SC/GA at most risk. If it is within 28-30 N, I'd then feel southern SC/GA/north FL would be at highest risk. If below 28 N, then central FL comes into play though odds would seem to be strongly against that possibility.

I doubt that any sig. tropical development, if it were to occur, would start to occur before Wed. night. After that, however, conditions should be more favorable for development as often is the case in a trapping/backing up scenario off the SE coast.

So, I'm now going to pay close attention to where this goes between now and Wed. night as it is this early week motion that I feel will be most crucial to what portion of the east coast, if any, is at most risk for a hit during the late week or weekend.

[Hurricaneman]

If you go by what the Canadian or Nogaps says, this may be something like Bob or Carol, but I cant discount the southeast as of yet Either

[EDR1222]

That is true All about timing. It would be nice for the rain. But because we need the rain it will bypass us and go out to sea or farther up north.

I feel for you up there in NC. Although I do not wish for any damage or destruction to anybody, a large tropical storm strength system and a very wet one, is really needed up there and that still wouldn't solve the extreme drought conditions, but it would certainly help. Maybe with a little luck this thing can kick back toward the Mid-Atlantic coast as a good rainmaker.

[vacanechaser]

clearly a circulation at the surface... the western side is exposed... however, looks like a new pop up of convection going on near the center






Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[cpdaman]

the low is sinking to the SE

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41010 ( 29N/ 78.5W) bouy falling at a good clip

and the storm is about 100 miles NE somewhere around 30.3 N 78w or about same lat as GA/FL border

[flwxwatcher]

12Z EURO has picked up on the area of the SE Coast and brings it back West to 30 N 80W in 120 Hrs .



http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts ... 7090312!!/

[HURAKAN]

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=97685&p=1619683#p1619683

Invest 99L is up!!!