Cape Verde Season's Early End?

[Frank2]

Considering the current TWO, it appears that the Tropical Atlantic easterlies may have already broken down:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1510.shtml

one sure sign that the Cape Verde season is ending, appears when the easterlies have broken down, since they can no longer transport waves exiting Africa.

This does not usually happen until late September, but, some Cape Verde seasons end earlier than others - if I'm not mistaken, one local OCM mentioned this very thing just this morning, but, said it might be too early to know for sure...

[Meso]

Quite contradictory as to what almost all of the models are currently showing,they're showing more activity around the Cape Verdes than I've seen all year

[Frank2]

Still, if the easteriles have broken down earlier than usual, then, anything that does form will be unable to move westward - similar to what happened with the invest still mentioned in TWO - it has been almost stationary since Saturday...

[Stephanie]

Right now it doesn't seem like there will be an early end due to the model output.

We still have until November 30 for the whole season to be completed.

[vacanechaser]

he just keeps trying to say season over... everytime he does, we see something else develop... season over slow year, whatever and we have seen 2 cat 5s from the deep tropics...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where did you hear that the easterlies are breaking down? It doesn't say anything about that in the TWO link you provided, and I have not heard anything like that from Jeff Masters, Joe Bastardi, the NHC, etc.

As far as I can tell...the season still looks to be very much alive.

[Frank2]

Stephanie,

We know you meant November 30...

Still, if the easterly trade winds are not there, then, that's that - the current invest has been "stuck" in that same position for almost 2 days - a sure sign that it's "late in the Cape Verde season"...

I like to consider the 1979 season when a situation like this comes up (per the current TWO, which mentions the "slow moving area" - actually, it's been nearly stationary for the past 48 hours)...

In 1979, we had David and Frederic (also powerful Caribbean hurricanes), then - the season essentially ended, after the second week of September (not due to El Nino, incidentially)...

Sorry, vacanechaser - just my opinion, based on what's happening out there...

[Extremeweatherguy]

After doing some research, it looks like the TPC would disagree with you...

48 hours surface = http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

72 hours surface = http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... BW_sm3.gif

Looks like there is still a sure east-to-west motion going on out there.

BTW: You cannot use one invest as a sign that everything is shutting down. There could be other factors involved with why 98L is moving slowly...especially since the TPC is expecting it to pick up speed again in 48-72 hours.

[Frank2]

I don't know - the area north of 20 and west of 50 looks very Fall-like...

[hurricanetrack]

This from the same person who said "unexpected shear" in a post quite a few weeks ago- just before Dean came along and was an "unexpected cat-5".

Come on, every effort has been made by some people on this board to end the season early, cancel it, make it not live up to expectations, etc. etc.

What is difficult for me to understand is how someone who worked at the NHC for so many years can make a comment like this a full week before the climatological peak to ANY hurricane season- active or not.

I think that if one makes such a post as this in light of what is really going on out there, with nothing more than rhetoric to back up his statements, and no science, then one needs to be prepared for people to question them sternly.

Take note, I am not attacking, not name calling and not being unreasonable here. Just pointing out that some of the things that get posted on this board really smell of being bait for people to waste time wondering "geez, could the cape verde season really be over this early?" There is no evidence of that what so ever. If there is, by all means, point us all to links on the Internet where we can see such evidence.

[hurricanetrack]

Bait has been taken by many so far. And just as that occurs, the 12Z GFS continues to show a nice CAPE VERDE cyclone coming off and rolling steadily west. And there are no deep "fall like" troughs out in the central Atlantic north of 20 and west of 50. When there are, we will all know it.

Time to move on from this thread and get back to reality- a cape verde origin cat-5 hurricane heading towards a very dangerous encounter with land.

[Frank2]

It's just my opinion - same as the individual who was -removed- Felix to hit Galveston as a Cat 4, just a few days ago - I'd rather attempt to predict peace any day than to predict disaster (which still might be the case if Felix makes landfall in Central America)...

Also, I say this because I'm older than most on this board, and, have experienced those seasons that did end in September - actually, from what I experienced, more seasons ended in September or October than those that ended very late...

Guess I struck a nerve with those who wish for disaster - I'd apologize if peace is that unappealing, but, that'd be akin to me apologizing for the sunlight we see...

[Stephanie]

The easterlies will shut down at some point - the question now is more of a when and how early is "early".

If they did shut down after these two waves then yes, I'd agree it would be an early season. Even if they shut down later in the month it would still be considered early.

I respect what you've experienced over the years. There could be some truth to what you are saying, but each season is ultimately different from the analogs used, but you do need those as guides, never the less.

[Frank2]

Thanks for that considerate post, Stephanie - sure, the Tropical Atlantic might remain a bowling alley for weeks to come, but, when an invest "gets stuck" (my unscientific term for it), then, that is sometimes a reliable indicator that the Cape Verde season, while not over, is waning...

Again, I brought this up because a local OCM also mentioned this, this morning...

[x-y-no]

98L has been slowed because of ridging wrapping around in front of it (hence the slow SW movement) not because the easterlies are breaking down entirely.

[Brent]

ANOTHER one of these threads? I remember you saying on Friday 2 weeks ago that when Dean got west of 65 W the environmental conditions would not be as favorable... well, they obviously are. It just seems like every post you make is negative, negative, negative. There's a big difference between realistic and being negative all the time.

[LarryWx]

Thanks for that considerate post, Stephanie - sure, the Tropical Atlantic might remain a bowling alley for weeks to come, but, when an invest "gets stuck" (my unscientific term for it), then, that is sometimes a reliable indicator that the Cape Verde season, while not over, is waning...

Again, I brought this up because a local OCM also mentioned this, this morning...

Frank,
It is my belief that the tone of your posts is clearly biased toward a lower tropical threat to the U.S. In my opinion, you are one of relatively few biased in the more quiet direction, i.e., a wish-caster of a different sort. However, when measuring objectivity, that is no worse imho than the far larger number of posters who imho wish-cast for more U.S. threats.

If I'm running low on time and am trying to get what I consider objective info ASAP, I'll usually just go right to posters from whom I feel I can get the most objective info.

[Gustywind]

The easterlies will shut down at some point - the question now is more of a when and how early is "early".

Humm Frank 2, i tkink that first you're may try to relaxed us before the peak of the season lool So, second more seriously, i have toi admit with humiliy that there's right now too much factors in favor for a very decent huge season without...
being a local OCMlol .
Don't worry about the easterlies, it's at very near term, matter of hours!!!.....Whereas i respect your point of vue, but the overall trend do not support this objectively!:spam
You know what Frank2 ,in others forums i noticed that there's a week ago, after Dean....people were saying that the water will be too fresh:cheesy: for supporting a cane..and we have Felix the killer cat 5 churning near Belize, hummm with all these factors noticed, that seems a little utopic for my untrained eyes or my eyes are deceiving me... for a ending trend season right now?eek: :

[Frank2]

Thanks, Larry - yes, I am biased in the quiet direction, that is true, though, as when I first began working in the field of weather 27 years ago, I still get a rush of excitement when something is first forming...

Still, the reality is, with the Country's national guard as stressed as it is, and, with oil prices as high as they are, not to mention the millions that now live along hurricane-prone areas (we only need to see what happened before and after Katrina - not to mention Rita's disasterous mass-evacuation attempt), to not be concerned at what could happen if similar events take place at this time, is to ignore what is truth...

As the man said in the well-known prison-escape film - "Hope is a good thing" - I'd like to think the same is true with any potential hurricane threat...

Frank

[Vortex]

Frank, Get some fresh air...