Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[KBBOCA]

Just checked out Jeff Masters' blog at Weather Underground. He's got a very interesting historical fact about Felix. I had been wondering whether Felix had beaten Wilma in terms of rapid intensification. Looks like the answer is yes. Here's what Masters' writes:

Hurricane Felix put on an incredibly ferocious burst of intensification last night, winding up into a small but potentially catastrophic Category 5 hurricane. Felix now holds the record for shortest time for an Atlantic storm to intensify to Category 5 strength. Felix required just 51 hours to reach Category 5 strength after it started as a tropical depression. That is a truly remarkable intensification rate, considering most tropical cyclones take 3-5 days to organize into a Category 1 hurricane. The tracking coordinates for Felix show that it has spent more of its life at Category 5 strength than any other classification.

link is here:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMa ... amp=200709

[Cyclenall]

115 knot hurricane with a pinhole eye that is clearing out and a almost full ring of red around it .

[CrazyC83]

Pinhole eye = Rapid deepening likely. I wouldn't be surprised to see it shoot up the scale again this evening and overnight...

[Brent]

HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062007
500 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT FELIX HAS WEAKENED TODAY. MAXIMUM SFMR
WINDS WERE 118 KT SEVERAL HOURS AGO BUT THE AIRCRAFT DATA SHOWS
THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS COME UP A BIT SINCE THEN. THE
AIRCRAFT REPORTS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL HAD OPENED UP TO
THE WEST NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED TO 115 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES SHOW SOME RECENT
COOLING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS PARTICULARLY ON THE
WEST SIDE...AND IN FACT THE MOST RECENT MESSAGES FROM THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS SUGGEST THAT THE EYEWALL MAY HAVE CLOSED UP AGAIN.
HIGH-DENSITY FLIGHT LEVEL DATA PLOTS GIVE A HINT OF A SECONDARY
WIND MAXIMUM SUGGESTING THAT THE HURRICANE MAY BE GOING THROUGH AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT...BUT THIS IS NOT EVIDENT FROM OTHER DATA
SOURCES SUCH AS MICROWAVE IMAGERY. SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE
ENVIRONMENT IS STILL CONDUCIVE...THE HURRICANE MAY RE-INTENSIFY
PRIOR TO INTERACTING WITH LAND. THIS POSSIBILITY IS REFLECTED IN
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. REGARDLESS...WE EXPECT FELIX TO REMAIN A
MAJOR HURRICANE UP TO LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST AT 24 HOURS
AND BEYOND IS UNCERTAIN BECAUSE WE ARE UNSURE OF HOW LONG FELIX
WILL REMAIN OVER LAND. SINCE THIS HURRICANE HAS A SMALL INNER
CORE...THE LARGE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS COULD WEAKEN THE CYCLONE
MORE RAPIDLY THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD AT A FAIRLY FAST PACE OF 17
KT. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM CONTINUES TO BE A WELL-DEFINED
DEEP LAYER HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FELIX. THIS REGIME
IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH SOME WEAKENING. THEREFORE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION WITH SOME SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED IS INDICATED. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE
ALBEIT IT HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. THIS IS IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST CONSENSUS OF THE GFDL...U.K. MET.
OFFICE...NOGAPS...AND GFS DYNAMICAL MODELS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISLA PROVIDENCIAS SINCE
SOME OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE LIKELY TO PASS OVER THAT ISLAND TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/2100Z 14.3N 79.5W 115 KT
12HR VT 04/0600Z 14.5N 81.9W 120 KT
24HR VT 04/1800Z 14.9N 84.5W 90 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 05/0600Z 15.5N 86.6W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 05/1800Z 16.2N 88.8W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 06/1800Z 17.6N 92.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/1800Z 19.0N 96.0W 30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 08/1800Z 20.5N 99.5W 20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[CrazyC83]

Is there a map of the steering currents and shear available? It seems the NHC map thinks the ridge has built in farther west...earlier estimates looked at an Edith-like track...

[Coredesat]

Felix is about to pass over another eddy of high TCHP, but there's cooler shallow waters off the coast of Nicaragua that should act to limit any strengthening unless Felix slows down even more:

(ignore the forecast points)

[wxmann_91]

Is there a map of the steering currents and shear available? It seems the NHC map thinks the ridge has built in farther west...earlier estimates looked at an Edith-like track...

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[Coredesat]

Is there a map of the steering currents and shear available? It seems the NHC map thinks the ridge has built in farther west...earlier estimates looked at an Edith-like track...

Steering layer for TC with pressure of 950-959 hPa: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm4.html

Steering layer for TC with pressure of 940-949 hPa: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm5.html

Shear: http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8shr.html

Looks like a valid assessment to me.

[CrazyC83]

The Gulf ridge sure saved the Gulf Coast...it just needs to stay there to block a northward move...

[wxmann_91]

WOW... latest IR shows a complete degration of the northern eyewall. Should be the nail in the coffin for any more Cat 5 hopes for Mr. Felix.

[windstorm99]

Visible image of Felix...

[jaxfladude]

WOW... latest IR shows a complete degration of the northern eyewall. Should be the nail in the coffin for any more Cat 5 hopes for Mr. Felix.

Man now that is some hairball...

[theworld]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[theworld]

[theworld]

[Ptarmigan]

I am totally amazed that Felix strengthened quickly. Even Wilma stayed as a TD for couple days. Felix came from TD to Category 5.

[Extremecane]

looks like two half red circles? Is it up to something. Also has red blob very near that center

[PhillyWX]

Updated TV Screengrabs of Felix: http://philadelphiaweather.blogspot.com ... onday.html

[RL3AO]

I bet Felix continues west right into the Pacific. They've been waiting for WNW for days now and it hasn't happened