Cape Verde Season's Early End?

[Aric Dunn]

98L has been slowed because of ridging wrapping around in front of it (hence the slow SW movement) not because the easterlies are breaking down entirely.

just to add to that ... the large wave that has exited africa is one of the main reason why 98L as not moved west .. that very very large wave has disrupted the normal flow( which has happened a couple times this season already but it goes right back ) .. but it does not tell me that the easterlies have stopped .. it actaully tells me that large Tropical waves with associated LOW's are still coming off africa and will do so until at least the beginning of October when the azores begins to shift .. if you look over africa there are many waves that will continue the the march across the atlantic..

seriously the peak of the season is in a week .. i can bet some money on us still getting some Cape Verde systems ..


but anyway have fun

[george_r_1961]

OK gang this has been a strange season so far. Im normally aggressive at developing systems, sometimes far to aggressive. I was correct with Dean. Not so correct with Felix as he moved into an area that I thought would be unfavorable. Well as we all know now conditions were quite favorable for development. Another day..another busted forecast.

Frank I hope u are right although from what im seeing now I respectfully disagree. We may be in a short lull now but I think the wave train will resume shortly. My reasoning?? Until I see the westerlies dipping down there I wont be ready to declare the Cape Verde area closed.

[Blown Away]

IMO, any potential Cape Verde is at least 12+ days from the CONUS, that's middle of September. So the chances of a CV storm affecting the CONUS is going to be low, there will be troughs digging in by mid September. The chances of a 2007 CV storm affecting the CONUS is very low at this point, given there is nothing in the E or Central Atlantic. For now systems like 99L will be the only way the CONUS get's affected, until October when the W Caribbean get's going. It's been a weird season, either all or nothing, 2 monsters and bunch of mainly windy rainstorms, some barley qualified to get a name. Just my opinion.

[hurricanetrack]

Katrina: not a developer until west of 75 degrees
Rita: not a developer until west of 69 degrees
Wilma: not a developer until west of 75 derees

I agree and it is a true statement that a hurricane that develops out near the Cape Verde Islands is not likely to hit the U.S. but the three monsters I listed above make that a moot point.

The later they bloom, the better the odds and it don't take 10 days to make a cat-3-4-5 hurricane. Just axe Felix!

[Extremeweatherguy]

IMO, any potential Cape Verde is at least 12+ days from the CONUS, that's middle of September. So the chances of a CV storm affecting the CONUS is going to be low, there will be troughs digging in by mid September. The chances of a 2007 CV storm affecting the CONUS is very low at this point, given there is nothing in the E or Central Atlantic. For now systems like 99L will be the only way the CONUS get's affected, until October when the W Caribbean get's going. It's been a weird season, either all or nothing, 2 monsters and bunch of mainly windy rainstorms, some barley qualified to get a name. Just my opinion.

I don't know if I entirely agree. Though there will be a few more troughs, we need to remember that this is "the year of the ridge". The ridging stretching into the western Atlantic and the eastern/southern U.S. will likely not be leaving real fast. This might very well be one of those years where the window for CV storms to reach the U.S. is extended a bit longer than normal. I do agree though that overall, our biggest threats will be the systems that develop closer to home. Waves that decide to blossom near the islands, in the Caribbean or off the SE U.S. coast will have the greatest chances of hitting the American mainland.

[Weatherfreak000]

I find it ironic early in the season we were talking about a "Heavy Recurving Season".


Funny how those things turn out

[Frank2]

Thanks, george_r_1961 - we'll see what happens, though it looks pretty quiet out east today...

It's funny how some posters always show good manners - while some have no manners at all...

[boca]

What is causing the slow down in the easterlies? Did the high get surpressed south or is their a trough digging down south I'm curious too on what the deal is out there.Nothing seems to be moving east to west the last 2 days.

[Frank2]

Yes, yes!

That was my initial observation, too, and, as mentioned earlier, the local OCM mentioned this yesterday morning, even stating that, while it's too early to tell, perhaps this is an indicator of the "Atlantic season" (the term this person used) coming to a close...

Someone else here mentioned that a ridge had dropped southward - when a high forms in the low latitudes of the tropics - I might be wrong, but, that is more a winter-type feature...

Sure, it's unusual to happen this early, and, just might be a short-term issue, but, this has closed the door, at least for now, when it comes to anything else moving across the Atlantic...

This seems to have happened very suddenly on Saturday morning - the pervious Invest was moving westward fairly rapidly, when suddenly, it became stationary - this pattern hasn't changed since, and, don't laugh, but, this reminds me of Star Trek, when an invisible force holds the Enterprise in it's grasp (not that I'm a Trekkie, mind you, but, the one or two episodes I did see were about that very thing)...

LOL

[Category 5]

Keep this in mind

2005 only had one long track cape verde storm.

[Steve]

Who knows? I will say that I'm pretty confident that we've seen less than half the named storms the Atlantic Basin has in store for 2007. Whether we get some US threats or not remains to be seen. We're a week away from the peak of the season (September 11th). And September is likely to bring us at least 4 or 5 named storms.

Steve

[Andrew92]

Frank, I recognize that you did once work at the NHC and I respect that. I also think it is a wonderful thing to hope for the best. However, and I hope I'm wrong, but I am afraid you may be hoping a little too much. With hoping for the best comes a time when one must also prepare for the worst.

Some analysis to think about at this point of this hurricane season: We have had more activity so far in 2007 at this time than we had by now in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001. ALL of those season were well above average hurricane seasons.

1998: No Georges or Mitch yet even. This one peaked very late in September, with a rare four-hurricane event at one time.

1999: I think the wave that would become Floyd was just starting to become identified. And don't forget about Lenny or even Gert, even though she stayed well out in the Atlantic; she still had 150-mph winds at one time.

2000: Another late peak, around late September to early October. Yes it's true that that season we lucked out, but even so, Belize didn't with Keith.

2001: October was the busiest month of that year, producing two destructive C4's in Iris and Michelle (although Michelle did her damage in November admittedly).

This season has the makings to be like one of those four, and maybe worse. After already having two C5's about two weeks apart, I am very concerned for the rest of this season.

And tell me all the non-CV storms that have been extremely destructive to the U.S., or better yet, simply look at 2005. (No, I don't think this will be quite that bad, but with TWO C5's so far, what CAN we expect the rest of this year?)

Right now, we may have a short lull in activity after the two C5's. I think right now would be an EXCELLENT time to go through again how a major hurricane procedure might take place and be prepared just in case. Like you said, troughiness may be starting to build in, which could break down that very strong ridge. But if that happens and we get another dangerous storm in the Caribbean, that could be very bad news for someone in the U.S.

And as for a fall-type pattern, yes that may happen. However, did not Mitch and Wilma form and reach C5 intensity in the fall?

I hope I didn't come across as a "wish caster" to you while making this post, because like you, the perfect hurricane season would be one with only fish storms or no activity at all.

Hope for the best? Of course! But prepare for the worst? ALWAYS.

-Andrew92

[KWT]

It should be noted that actually the main core of the high pressure belt is actually about as far north as its been all summer so far which probably explains why the models are forecasting cape verde development to occur as there'd be less stablity.
The chances of a direct US hit for a cape verde system probably does start to decrease over the next 2 weeks however the high pressure belt has been extremely strong this year, look how far soutgh its kept Dean and Felix.

[Blown Away]

It should be noted that actually the main core of the high pressure belt is actually about as far north as its been all summer so far which probably explains why the models are forecasting cape verde development to occur as there'd be less stablity.
The chances of a direct US hit for a cape verde system probably does start to decrease over the next 2 weeks however the high pressure belt has been extremely strong this year, look how far soutgh its kept Dean and Felix.

At this point any potential Cape Verde system is likely 14 days away from the CONUS, got to think the chances of a CV storm striking the CONUS is going to be low.

[Frank2]

Don't mean to step over you, KWT (ouch), but, wanted to give a quick answer to Andrew92's post - sure, there is very possibly more to come, but, as one or two others mentioned here (including a local OCM), there has been a noticeable break in the deep easterlies over the past few days, so, the hope is rising that perhaps this is signaling the end of the Cape Verde season...

Yes, I did work at the NHC many moons past (ending 20 years ago, to be exact), and, while not a meteorologist, I was very glad to have worked for some of the pioneers in the field of tropical meteorology (so much is mentioned here about the models, well, in the days when they were only known to meteorologists, I was taught to plot the CLIPER and GFDL for the forecasters, using a red or blue pencil - back in the pre-computer-plotter days) - sadly, time does pass, and, as in the recent passing of Dr. Burpee, many of the folks I worked for are now deceased or getting up there in age (everyone from that time now being between the age of 50 and 90 - at my current age, I'm probably considered one of the "babies" of that group), so, many fond, fond memories, but, am getting to that time in life where it seems that I go to more funerals than anything - still, I don't think there is one person who ever worked there, who regrets having done so - all of the above, of course, also includes my admin years with my dear friends and co-workers at the HRD...

By the way - if there is a Cape Verde system, I'll make sure to post here, acknowledging that fact, and, will use that blushy icon, for sure...

LOL

Frank

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Frank, I recognize that you did once work at the NHC and I respect that. I also think it is a wonderful thing to hope for the best. However, and I hope I'm wrong, but I am afraid you may be hoping a little too much. With hoping for the best comes a time when one must also prepare for the worst.

Some analysis to think about at this point of this hurricane season: We have had more activity so far in 2007 at this time than we had by now in 1998, 1999, 2000, and 2001. ALL of those season were well above average hurricane seasons.

1998: No Georges or Mitch yet even. This one peaked very late in September, with a rare four-hurricane event at one time.

1999: I think the wave that would become Floyd was just starting to become identified. And don't forget about Lenny or even Gert, even though she stayed well out in the Atlantic; she still had 150-mph winds at one time.

2000: Another late peak, around late September to early October. Yes it's true that that season we lucked out, but even so, Belize didn't with Keith.

2001: October was the busiest month of that year, producing two destructive C4's in Iris and Michelle (although Michelle did her damage in November admittedly).

This season has the makings to be like one of those four, and maybe worse. After already having two C5's about two weeks apart, I am very concerned for the rest of this season.

And tell me all the non-CV storms that have been extremely destructive to the U.S., or better yet, simply look at 2005. (No, I don't think this will be quite that bad, but with TWO C5's so far, what CAN we expect the rest of this year?)

Right now, we may have a short lull in activity after the two C5's. I think right now would be an EXCELLENT time to go through again how a major hurricane procedure might take place and be prepared just in case. Like you said, troughiness may be starting to build in, which could break down that very strong ridge. But if that happens and we get another dangerous storm in the Caribbean, that could be very bad news for someone in the U.S.

And as for a fall-type pattern, yes that may happen. However, did not Mitch and Wilma form and reach C5 intensity in the fall?

I hope I didn't come across as a "wish caster" to you while making this post, because like you, the perfect hurricane season would be one with only fish storms or no activity at all.

Hope for the best? Of course! But prepare for the worst? ALWAYS.

-Andrew92

yes I think late season will be really bad for FL
like with wilma in 2005 with a storm in the carib recurving
into the west coast as troughs are very strong in late october.
Hopefully this does not happen but it can especially in an explosive
year like this when we've already had 2 category 5s.

[JonathanBelles]

yes I think late season will be really bad for FL
like with wilma in 2005 with a storm in the carib recurving
into the west coast as troughs are very strong in late october.
Hopefully this does not happen but it can especially in an explosive
year like this when we've already had 2 category 5s.

That is my first thought, but with two cat 5's this season, I dont think we need any more intense storms.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

yes I think late season will be really bad for FL
like with wilma in 2005 with a storm in the carib recurving
into the west coast as troughs are very strong in late october.
Hopefully this does not happen but it can especially in an explosive
year like this when we've already had 2 category 5s.

That is my first thought, but with two cat 5's this season, I dont think we need any more intense storms.

We of course don't need any but with the explosive heat content
over much of the caribbean this scenario is prominent.

[Stephanie]

Don't mean to step over you, KWT (ouch), but, wanted to give a quick answer to Andrew92's post - sure, there is very possibly more to come, but, as one or two others mentioned here (including a local OCM), there has been a noticeable break in the deep easterlies over the past few days, so, the hope is rising that perhaps this is signaling the end of the Cape Verde season...

Yes, I did work at the NHC many moons past (ending 20 years ago, to be exact), and, while not a meteorologist, I was very glad to have worked for some of the pioneers in the field of tropical meteorology (so much is mentioned here about the models, well, in the days when they were only known to meteorologists, I was taught to plot the CLIPER and GFDL for the forecasters, using a red or blue pencil - back in the pre-computer-plotter days) - sadly, time does pass, and, as in the recent passing of Dr. Burpee, many of the folks I worked for are now deceased or getting up there in age (everyone from that time now being between the age of 50 and 90 - at my current age, I'm probably considered one of the "babies" of that group), so, many fond, fond memories, but, am getting to that time in life where it seems that I go to more funerals than anything - still, I don't think there is one person who ever worked there, who regrets having done so - all of the above, of course, also includes my admin years with my dear friends and co-workers at the HRD...

By the way - if there is a Cape Verde system, I'll make sure to post here, acknowledging that fact, and, will use that blushy icon, for sure...

LOL

Frank

We'll always look forward to your input.

[Honeyko]

...easterlies are breaking down...

The Cape Verde seasons ends when there are no more equatorial westerlies; they are what is necessary to produce spin-up eddies with the trade-wind easterlies to their north. That, and the near-ubiquitous development of a shearing upper-level low near the Canary Island.

The easterlies haven't broken down, either; they've merely shifted father north to accomodate a surge of westerlies heading toward Africa and the Cape Verdes. The Cape Verde season is alive and well, and this impressive surge hints at an expansive storm system in the coming weeks.