Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[bigGbear]

This is going to be devastating if it hits Puerto Cabezas. The southern end of the hurricane warning is at Puerto Cabezas.

It is amazing to me that Nicaragua did not extend hurricane warnings southward.
Cabezas could be in the eyewall at landfall. Can you imagine a warning zone that
ends where the eyewall may hit?

[HurricaneBill]

I think Beta in 2005 was 90KT at landfall. So the last major hurricane to make landfall on Nicaragua was Hurricane Joan in 1988. Joan had sustained winds of 125KT at landfall on Bluefields.

[philnyc]

I still think the track is too far north, but I'm not a pro.

You are right on this. Wxmann_57, you and I are all confused with it as well.

[Sanibel]

Of course this is going to landfall in Nicaragua. It will devastate the landfall area and maybe Puerto Cabesas. But the brunt of this will be taken by Honduras where the rainfall will dump out over the same drainages and chutes deluged by Mitch.

So the red core and eyewall replacement could give us an intensifying hurricane at landfall.

[Air Force Met]

Well, that NHC track doesn't make sense. To get to their 21hr forecast point Felix would have to move at 291 deg. It's not showing any sign of doing that. Wonder why they're reluctant to drop the track south in the face of overwhelming evidence it's not heading for Belize? I just don't see much to indicate their WNW movement. At least they don't bring it back up to hurricane strength at that point.

By my calculations it would need to move at a 280 to hit the wed morning point...or a 285 after it hits land.

As far as your question: It's what most posters on here don't understand when they talk about how well the NHC has done forecasting a particular system: It's really not their forecast...it's basically a track down the center of the model cluster...once the garbage models have been thrown out. Hence the reason when the models are bad...the NHC is bad. I could teach my 5 year old to put out a "forecast" based on the consensus track. It takes a little courage and forecasting skill to say "the X model has nailed this and I am going to model my track off of that forecast."

But...you won't see that very often. You see them split the guidance cluster....like now.

[Sanibel]

The ridge wins with leftward trend again.

[brunota2003]

Are we focusing on that skinny black line, or the cone?

[Air Force Met]

...Ohh...and heaven forbid we base a forecast off of the Euro over the GFS (American) model.

Don't think that is a factor? Oh yeah...

[wxmann_91]

This is going to be devastating if it hits Puerto Cabezas. The southern end of the hurricane warning is at Puerto Cabezas.

It is amazing to me that Nicaragua did not extend hurricane warnings southward.
Cabezas could be in the eyewall at landfall. Can you imagine a warning zone that
ends where the eyewall may hit?

I was a bit puzzled about that too. Hopefully everybody in Puerto Cabezas is evacuated already.

Right now I'm more concerned about Guatemala and El Salvador than Honduras. The remnants of Felix will ring out all sorts of moisture. In addition, Felix might get a tap of moisture from the Pacific Ocean... I think we all know how orographic lift enhances rainfall rates. (And Guatemala, a country still recovering from Stan, has some of the highest mountains in Central America.) Steering currents will weaken when this gets into that area.

[deltadog03]

once again SCORE the W for the EURO

[RL3AO]

The NHC still thinks Felix will be moving around 287 degrees between the 24 and 48hr points.

[philnyc]

...Ohh...and heaven forbid we base a forecast off of the Euro over the GFS (American) model.

Don't think that is a factor? Oh yeah...

LOL

[miamicanes177]

How bout a little black mascara for the NW quad

[Zardoz]

Of course this is going to landfall in Nicaragua. It will devastate the landfall area and maybe Puerto Cabesas. But the brunt of this will be taken by Honduras where the rainfall will dump out over the same drainages and chutes deluged by Mitch...

Absolutely.

A horrendous disaster is about to happen. It is, I'm afraid, quite likely that thousands of people are going to be killed in floods and mudslides over the next two days. Felix is going to be remembered as a mass killer.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The red ring is almost back to its full size as of its peak last night. In even has some blacks forming...All it needs to do is the eye to warm and clear, then we could have a cat5 again. WOW

[RDTF]

Of course this is going to landfall in Nicaragua. It will devastate the landfall area and maybe Puerto Cabesas. But the brunt of this will be taken by Honduras where the rainfall will dump out over the same drainages and chutes deluged by Mitch...

Absolutely.

A horrendous disaster is about to happen. It is, I'm afraid, quite likely that thousands of people are going to be killed in floods and mudslides over the next two days. Felix is going to be remembered as a mass killer.

JTF Bravo at Soto Cano AB is preparing for search and rescue

[Epsilon_Fan]

this may be the final Felix the Cat... hopefully the people in Central America are prepared for this monster

[philnyc]

Of course this is going to landfall in Nicaragua. It will devastate the landfall area and maybe Puerto Cabesas. But the brunt of this will be taken by Honduras where the rainfall will dump out over the same drainages and chutes deluged by Mitch.

So the red core and eyewall replacement could give us an intensifying hurricane at landfall.

Actually the eyewall replacement causes weakening initially. If it has time, after the replacement, it can reintensify. I still don't see that an EWRC took place, and it's difficult to say from that 11PM discussion exactly when they think one occurred (are they saying it started at 18Z and just finished?). But I think they are saying that the EWRC is done, if there was one, so that means a contraction is occurring which could aid stengthening.
Also, it appears that although the TCHP maps show "cooler" water just ahead of it at the nicaraguan coast, that is not cooler water at all. It is very warm. BUT, the TCHP maps show depth of the heated layer, and since the water is shallow, the color codes can't represent it properly. i.e. it is going over very warm shallow water at and just before landfall, but the water isn't deep. What all that means is that it could well be still intensifying as it moves onshore.

[cheezyWXguy]

How bout a little black mascara for the NW quad

If thats mascara, Felix is either gay or a big fan of KISS

[Sanibel]

The black IR in the core it is presently showing says it all. I would assume an intensity flux.

You have to be careful about assuming mass deaths in the thousands. It could be that Mitch washed out to a level of 75 inches. If Felix moves faster with only 20 inches it could possibly not reach the parameters Mitch did in order to produce a similar catastrophe. Yes, there will be floods and mudslides, but possibly not of the level of Mitch. So the death toll could be much less from predictable floods rather than over the top slides.