Hurricane FELIX: Caribbean-Discussions

[wxmann_91]

Another thing of note - hurricanes making landfall while they are moving westerly take on less dry air entrainment than hurricanes making landfall while they are moving northerly

(compare:

Edith 1971
Dean 2007
Andrew 1992
Anita 1977
STY Cimaron 2006 WPAC

VS

Katrina 2005
Lili 2002
Floyd 1999
Dennis 2005)

So this should be intensifying while it is making landfall. Probably not as a Cat 5 but as a medium 4.

On a good note, the area between Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, and Puerto Lempira, Honduras, is mostly rural, it seems.

[Sanibel]

When will reconnaissance get there?

That red core should be a rainy one over land.

[RL3AO]

About 140 miles from landfall.

[Hockey007]

It is scheduled to be in the storm in about one hour, and ya, there is some blue on the WV, seems like a very wet core, which is very unfortunate for those in it's path
edit: purple to blue, I still don't know my colors

[Windspeed]

At least we get the GOES 11 imagery during eclipses, though at a different angle and not quite as good resolution. The eye continues to clear out and a band of very cold -75ºC continues to expand out around it. Very anxious to see what recon finds. I think Felix may be entering another rapid intensification phase....

[Normandy]

Very unfortunate for the people of Nicaragua/Honduras....Rapidly Deepening systems are the absolute WORST systems to endure as gusts can be extreme.

[fasterdisaster]

[/quote]

Definitely better organized

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would not be suprized if this was a upper cat4 or even slightly higher? This thing is kicking some back side. We will find out in the next 20 minutes.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

143 knots flight level=145 mph at the surface. So far 943 with a 60 knot wind....

[fasterdisaster]

143 knots flight level=145 mph at the surface. So far 943 with a 60 knot wind....

What quad is this? Even if it's NE it's still some impressive strengthening.

[fasterdisaster]

It could be at 150 mph since 143 kts would round to 150 BARELY, and I think the surface conversion is slightly higher than the standard .9 based on what we've seen before with Felix.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I'm thinking northeast quad....

[Coredesat]

Yes, the 143 kt was in the NE quad. Eye pressure was extrapolated to 937.9 hPa, so I would suppose the advisory pressure will be around 939-940.

[Normandy]

Yea I'd estimate 150 mph winds with Felix right now....pretty intense convection.

Should be noted:

Using 75% reduction: 123 mph
Using 85% reduction: 139 mph
Using 90% reduction: 148 mph.
Using 95% reduction: 155 mph


With Felix, the standard has been .95 especially during deepening cycles....so with that in mind I'd say its pretty safe to say winds in Felix right now are about 150 mph.

[Normandy]

Also, Felix's southern quad appears pretty weak...only 96 kts at flight level.

[Brent]

I think we may have the 2nd Cat 5 landfall in 2 weeks...

[wxmann_91]

I wish we had SFMR right now. Really, I think the reduction is closer to .95 or even .100 right now. I'd go with 135 kt sfc.

[Normandy]

Should be noted that Felix is moving out of the high TCHP area and moving into a VERY low TCHP area..... Should put its deepening at bay....

Despite this, the damage has been done...Felix likely strikes at greater than 150 mph.

[miamicanes177]

NHC forecaster Knabb:

"Reports from a United States Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased and are now
near 150 mph...240 km/hr...with higher gusts. Felix is an
extremely dangerous category four hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
scale. Some additional strengthening could occur while the center
of Felix remains over water...and it is possible that Felix could
reach category five status prior to making landfall in a few hours.

Repeating the 200 am EDT position...14.3 N...81.9 W. Movement
toward...west near 17 mph. Maximum sustained winds...150 mph.
Minimum central pressure...940 mb."

[Normandy]

Yep.
Great call by the NHC.