Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[chadtm80]

[storms in NC]

Boy they sure do love the cape Fear River LOL. We will see. Boy would be nice for some rain.

Thanks on the INFO KBBOCA

Moved to Fla when I was 13 in 69 till 1984 moved to panama City then move Back to NC in 92 then 96 came and was my first hurricane that I can remember. Was small in Jacksonville NC in the 50's and 60's don't remember much of them. Started to follow hurricanes in 96. Sorry got o/t But is why I asked.


Deb

[TampaFl]

Map courtesy of HPC:

[marcane_1973]

That is basically the same setup when Hugo hit S.C. It is pretty plain to see IF those highs hold this system will slip right in between the 2 and has no choice but to head into the Carolinas. I would say as of now with the setup we are seeing the Carolinas are in the bullseye but that could change in the next 5 days. Hopefully this system will not intensify rapidly and just remain a tropical depression or weak storm and bring us some rain to help out with this historic drought we are entering. Some areas are easily 20 to 30 inches below rainfall for the year.

[HURAKAN]

04/1145 UTC 29.2N 76.4W T1.0/1.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/positions.html

Updated to 1.5:
04/1145 UTC 29.2N 76.4W T1.5/1.5 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Derek Ortt]

would not be surprised to see this become a hurricane

Look like a new England threat and have alerted a friend already to monitor this

[HURAKAN]

Looks increasingly better. If this trend continues we could see a depression later on today or tonight.

[BigA]

If there is any model consensus whatsoever, from the model page that I was looking at http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ it is that all the models develop 99L, and most of them take it east before doubling it back to the west. Some then pull it north, while others push it into Florida. It looks like, according to this graphic, that shear will be slowly decreasing over the next 72 hours. http://www.wunderground.com/data/640x480/atlm_shear.gif (note how much of the yellow is replaced with red-orange)

[storms in NC]

would not be surprised to see this become a hurricane

Look like a new England threat and have alerted a friend already to monitor this

You don't see this a SC-NC threat?

[GeneratorPower]

This is an Ophelia type meandering setup. The track is not straightforward on this one and we're likely to see slow movement and a highly uncertain track.

[HURAKAN]

Don't know if this was posted before:

727
NOUS42 KNHC 041430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 04 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 05/1700Z
D. 29.5N 74.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON HURRICANE FELIX CANCELED BY
NHC BY 04/0915Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON HENRIETTE CANCELED AT 04/1100Z.
JWP

[GeneratorPower]

So they are pulling the hunters off recon elsewhere to task this system. Interesting.

[storm4u]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
409 AM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO NEAR 90 IN THE INTERIOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AFTERNOONS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A TROPICAL SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.
&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING SOUTH THROUGH SNE AT 3 AM AND IT
MOVES TO THE S COAST THIS MORNING WHERE IT MAY MEANDER BEFORE
PUSHING WELL S DURING THIS UPCOMING NIGHT. PATCHY E AM FOG...AS PER
PREVIOUSLY FCST. WE MAY HAVE TO AMEND FOR MORE FOG IN CT SE MA AT 4AM
BUT FOR NOW THE PRODUCTS AS POSTED SUFFICE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /1 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
EVENTUALLY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO NEW ENGLAND LATE TUE NIGHT AND
WED.

APPEARS THERE WILL BE A DISTURBANCE OR TWO IN THE NW FLOW THAT WILL
GENERATE VARIABLE CLOUDINESS FM W MA ESEWD THROUGH CAPE COD THIS AFTN
AND EARLY TONIGHT. EVEN THE SMALL CHC OF A SPRINKLE IN CT LATE TODAY
OR THIS EVEN BUT NOT NOW IN THE FCST.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPTS/WIND WERE A MESH OF PRIOR KBOX FCST AND THE 000Z NAM 2M 18Z
MODEL TEMPS /FOR AFTN MAX`S/ AND THE 00Z/4 GFS MAVMOS. GUSTS WERE FM
THE GFS MXG HT ALGORITHM AND THE GFS GUST TOOL WITH POWER TO ACQUIRE AS
MUCH OF THE WIND AS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE MXD LAYER.

A BEAUTIFUL WEDNESDAY ANTICIPATED WITH LITTLE OR NO CLOUD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PREVAILS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING AT
LEAST THE EARLY PORTION OF THE EXTENDED TIMEFRAME. LONG RANGE
OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES SUGGESTS THIS RIDGE AXIS MAY
BREAK DOWN OR FLATTEN BY DAYS 6 AND 7 OR SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF EARLY
NEXT WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL INTO SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
WITH A CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BATCH
OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS ARRIVING AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LEADING
EDGE OF MILDER AIR ALOFT BEGINS TO PENETRATE THE REGION. OVERALL USED
A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND PREVIOUS FORECAST TO DERIVE THE OVERNIGHT
LOWS.

THURSDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLIDE OFFSHORE. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE REGARDING
HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE LATEST GFS AND NAM BUFKIT PROFILES INDICATE
MIXING ONLY UP TO ABOUT THE 900 MB LEVEL. THERE MAY A HINT OF
SOME MARINE CONTAMINATION EVEN WITH MILDER AIR ALOFT. DECIDED TO USE
A BLEND OF THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE AT THIS TIME.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WARMER AND MORE HUMID AIR
ENCOMPASSES THE REGION AS A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES. GFS
MODEL ENSEMBLES AND THE LATEST 00Z ECMWF AGREE ON 850 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES AVERAGING AROUND +18 CELSIUS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHICH
WOULD YIELD HIGHS AROUND 90 DEGREES AWAY INLAND WELL AWAY FROM THE
SOUTH COAST. CURRENTLY MAINTAINED LOW CHANCE POPS SATURDAY BUT THIS
MAY NEED TO BE REMOVED AS CURRENT VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES
INDICATE THE FORECAST AREA MAY REMAIN CAPPED ALOFT DUE TO THE
PRESENCE OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE 00Z GFS...ECMWF...CANADIAN GGEM BEGIN
TO DIVERGE REGARDING THE TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT COLD
FRONT. IN ADDITION THEY ALL HANDLE THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
A POTENTIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NEAR THE BAHAMAS
DIFFERENTLY. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY WOULD DEPEND ON THE 500
MILLIBAR STEERING CURRENTS WHICH APPEAR WEAK AT THIS TIME. IF
THE 500 MILLIBAR WIND FIELDS REMAIN MORE WESTERLY AS SUGGESTED
BY THE MOST RECENT MODEL OUTPUT AT THIS LATITUDE...IT WOULD TAKE
THIS DISTURBANCE OUT SEA...BUT IT IS STILL FAR TOO EARLY TO BE
CERTAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE SCENARIO CLOSELY VIA LONG RANGE
MODEL AND TPC GUIDANCE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES
TO THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST EXCEPT TO BLEND PREVIOUS SUNDAY TEMPS
WITH THE LATEST 00Z MEX GUIDANCE WHICH REFLECTS SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGHS
ON SUNDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

[Derek Ortt]

also a carolinas threat

[chadtm80]

:uarrow: So they are pulling the hunters off recon elsewhere to task this system. Interesting.

the other recon set for the 5th was for felix in the BOC.. but Felix is no longer going to the BOC

[storms in NC]

Don't know if this was posted before:

727
NOUS42 KNHC 041430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 04 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-103

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/2000Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 05/1700Z
D. 29.5N 74.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12HRLY FIXES AT 06/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS.
3. REMARKS: ALL TASKING ON HURRICANE FELIX CANCELED BY
NHC BY 04/0915Z.

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: TASKING ON HENRIETTE CANCELED AT 04/1100Z.
JWP

No it wasn't. Thank you. well off to the Doc office in Greenville. be back later this afternoon. Around 5 or so.

[CrazyC83]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

Uncontaminated 35 knot+ wind barbs. Unfortunately the scan missed a section and I cannot tell if there is a closed circulation.

[HURAKAN]

TWC TROPICAL UPDATE: 1050 AM EDT

Christina Albernaty:

"it's not showing any signs of tropical characteristics .."

Before talking, don't they look to satellite images?

[BUD]

TWC TROPICAL UPDATE: 1050 AM EDT

Christina Albernaty:

"it's not showing any signs of tropical characteristics .."

Before talking, don't they look to satellite images?

WHAT!!!!!!!!!!Where are they getting there info from???!!!!Boy I wish John Hope was still a live!!!!!

[terstorm1012]

Philly/Mt.Holly and Sterling VA NWS (and NYC's does too) also both mention the system this morning. I remain somewhat skeptical of it actually developing but I'm going to watch it now so we shall see.