Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[windstorm99]

[canegrl04]

the question i have is is this acquiring SUB tropical charactericstics

and also has there ever been a subtropical storm with hurricane force winds?

i think we are looking at a STD

That sounds yucky.I won't elaborate

[miamicanes177]

TCHP and SSTs are not very high as you go up the US east coast past north carolina. Any thoughts on how strong a hurricane the Carolinas on north could get in these waters...

[KWT]

No reason why under a good set-up a system could reach major status, the most recent type system like this I'd guess would be Alex which made it upto cat-3 at 38N riding up the gulf stream it seems.

[Meso]

Here are current SST's

[windstorm99]

SST'S are much warmer as you approach the bahamas....

[HURAKAN]

000
URNT10 KNHC 041647
97779 16304 30190 67100 73100 05022 68712 /5760
RMK AF306 WXWXA 07090415306 OB 01
SWS = 023KTS

Just came out at 12:47 PM. Is this a RECON mission?

[HurricaneBelle]

the question i have is is this acquiring SUB tropical charactericstics

and also has there ever been a subtropical storm with hurricane force winds?

i think we are looking at a STD

That sounds yucky.I won't elaborate

Yes, hopefully this won't go from an STD to a full-fledged Herpescane.

[HURAKAN]

367
URNT10 KNHC 041729
97779 17024 30201 68800 73200 04019 67911 /5761
RMK AF305 WXWXA 07090415305 OB 01

Another one?? Flying towards 99L??

[sevenleft]

367
URNT10 KNHC 041729
97779 17024 30201 68800 73200 04019 67911 /5761
RMK AF305 WXWXA 07090415305 OB 01

Another one?? Flying towards 99L??

I suspect they are (both aircraft, 305 and 306) are flying back to Keesler so they can start missions on 99L tomorrow.

305 is over the Turks and Caicos, while 306 is north of Hispaniola.

[Brent]

Looks like a developing TS to me. Recon is set to investigate in 24 hours, I think it'll go straight to TS Gabrielle tomorrow unless the NHC decides to call it TD 7 this afternoon.

I agree, I am very surprised at how fast it has developed.

Looks similar to Bob 1991 to me...

[Derek Ortt]

I am somewhat worried over this one

Too much model guidance indicating a significant TC

[Nimbus]

They have floater 3 on it. drifting east?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[windstorm99]

They have floater 3 on it. drifting east?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

I see more of a ESE drift there...

[gatorcane]

The threat to the East Coast of Florida appears to be quite real this time....

interesting I'll be watching.

[BigA]

I am somewhat worried over this one

Too much model guidance indicating a significant TC

Although I really dont feel qualified to agree or disagree with you (I am only a freshman in college), and dont have any real technical expertise, I have never seen such a model consensus over a system that has not even reached tropical depression status. It seems like every single model, at least on this page, developes the system into a strong tropical storm or more http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[wxman57]

Phase diagrams indicate moderate to deep warm core, not an STD:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/hwrf/invest99l/fcst/archive/07090406/8.html

[wxman57]

The threat to the East Coast of Florida appears to be quite real this time....

interesting I'll be watching.

I'm thinking the greatest threat is to NC to southern New England, not Florida. It will develop, stall, drift west, then turn NW-N. Probably won't drift far enough west to reach FL before it turns north.

[gatorcane]

The threat to the East Coast of Florida appears to be quite real this time....

interesting I'll be watching.

I'm thinking the greatest threat is to NC to southern New England, not Florida. It will develop, stall, drift west, then turn NW-N. Probably won't drift far enough west to reach FL before it turns north.

Thanks Wxman...

[fci]

The threat to the East Coast of Florida appears to be quite real this time....

interesting I'll be watching.

Chris:
Respectfully, I must say that the threat at this time to the East Coast of Florida is NOT quite real at this time.

It is quite real to the Carolinas and north

An FSU model takes it to FL and nogaps (I think) brings it here but not as a strong system at all.
The frightening models are the others which show quite a wrapped up system headed for NC and the Northeast and not Florida.

Thanks for not putting an in your post.