Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[CrazyC83]

A good analog for this seems to be Diana (1984)...

[TampaFl]

once again I ask for a link to the ECMWF!!! Please...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

['CaneFreak]

once again I ask for a link to the ECMWF!!! Please...

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/animate/catalog/products/forecasts/medium/deterministic/msl_uv850_z500!Wind%20850%20and%20mslp!72!North%20America!pop!od!oper!public_plots!2004083000!!!step/

Thanks a million!!!

[miamicanes177]

There is no need to panic. A lot of things can happen that the models haven't a clue.

This is true but the Euro has been amazingly accurate this season. All the models develop 99l and it is becoming increasingly likely that at least a tropical storm will form. You are correct that things could change but unfortunately right now it appears the changes are for the worse (stronger and landfall).

[Weatherfreak14]

I wonder if the models will agree more when we get the LLC established and it has become a depression is it possible to shift the big threat back towards SC?


Especially if its supposed to make a Clockwise loop... some Local mets have predicted and Jeff masters has it in his blog.

[xironman]

A lot of OBX is no place to be in a hurricane. It is good they are at least past Labor Day and the tourists.

[brunota2003]

Okay, I go to school, return home only to find models forcasting a bomb over me? Interesting...(BTW Cycloneye, looks like I nailed it with the organized statement in the 1130 TWO and adding recon mission for tomorrow Though I was hoping the opposite) Do not worry, most Carolina posters are either at work or school right now (just got home from school myself) and I bet most, if not all, are watching this area VERY closly...A storm + the GS = Major problems.

[ronjon]

Looks like the low pressure has sunk down to 28.5N-76W on VIS SAT. It is very broad and the overall system is poorly organized. I don't see any apparent movement over the last several hours. Still getting attacked by the NW shear monster.

[cpdaman]

well the ECWMF takes the storm into winyah bay/ georgetown South Carolina (in between myrtle beach and charleston) as a decent strength hurricane

you can see it on the link. it is a good deal south of cape hatteras and even south of wilmington and mytle beach, but as we know forecast can and do change

[Lowpressure]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

We are here Gator- with eyes wide open. Just watching and gathering info.

[Brent]

They've bumped the recon flight up 2 hours tomorrow!

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/1800Z --CHANGED
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 05/1700Z
D. 29.5N 74.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Looks like they are concerned.

[btangy]

The circulation is clearly becoming much more consolidated. Convection is still displaced to the E of the center due to moderate shear, but it's not strong enough to prevent genesis. IMO, this warrants a subtropical classification at the very least at either 5pm or 11pm, and I agree that this could be a fast developer once it starts to retrograde toward the coast and down the road, could become a potent tropical or extratropical cyclone for the East Coast and New England.

[Robert]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

Sorry I was just putting up the last boards on my windows. <jk>

I looked last night and thought "nothing." I imagine that most other NC posters will start to look back here more often when they hear something on the news. When I saw the news this morning there was no mention of it, and I believe the only rain was a chance next Monday. But I admit this makes me a bit nervous. I will make sure I have my shutter hardware in the next day or so (already have water, food, and all that stuff).

Robert

[cpdaman]

Looks like the low pressure has sunk down to 28.5N-76W on VIS SAT. It is very broad and the overall system is poorly organized. I don't see any apparent movement over the last several hours. Still getting attacked by the NW shear monster.

i believe that was an eddy not the primary LLC

i will take a stab at it and say the llC is around 29.5 74

[BUD]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

I am here and me and my dad are talking about what to do "IF" a cat 3 or 4 would come.

[brunota2003]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

Sorry I was just putting up the last boards on my windows. <jk>

I looked last night and thought "nothing." I imagine that most other NC posters will start to look back here more often when they hear something on the news. When I saw the news this morning there was no mention of it, and I believe the only rain was a chance next Monday. But I admit this makes me a bit nervous. I will make sure I have my shutter hardware in the next day or so (already have water, food, and all that stuff).

Robert

Indeed. I got to talk to my mom when she gets home, most stuff is ready, but I want dad to fire up the genny tomorrow and make sure everything is good. Then it is a sit, wait, and pray situation. Hope for the best, prepare for the worst. I think you'll see a lot more NC/SC posters here in the next couple of days, followed with the obs threads for us. The system does look a lot better and I cannot wait for the MHX discussion and the 5:30 TWO

[Hello32020]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

I am here and me and my dad are talking about what to do "IF" a cat 3 or 4 would come.

Hope that doesn't happen. And if it does, hope its a fish spinner.

[NCHurricane]

both CMC and Eruo IMO do appear to suggest a major hurricane making landfall in NC, the ECM at 96hrs is down to aobut 985mbs and wit hthe resolution of the global models that would suggest something a good deal stronger then that as well.

One thing to say:



Where are the Carolina posters....???

Right here...lurking and watching.

Chuck Copeland
http://www.nchurricane.com

[cycloneye]

Brent,tommorow afternoon at 2 PM reaching 99L with takeoff around 1:00 PM EDT if they make the final decision to fly.

[tallywx]

right here, but getting ready to leave on a business trip to california a few hours from now…through next tuesday. Considering my luck when it comes to hurricanes, expect a nc/sc landfall this weekend.