Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[brunota2003]

The inherent problem with storms that develop close to home is evacuation plans. Ocracoke island is accessible by ferry only so it needs 48 hr lead time. Hatteras island needs 24 at least and hwy 12 floods with large surf conditions. There is simply not enough lead time in a lot of cases because storms can blow up quickly before landfall. Alex in 04 is a good example. It did scare a lot of tourists because of Cat 1 conditions and over wash isolating people in their homes. And it was only a Cat 1. Fortunately, most if not all also don't have enough time to make it to major. I haven't seen any intensity predictions, but I'm sure none are above Cat 1.

Check the Euro!

Yeah...a lot of things around here take time to prep, I can forsee the evac order going up here very soon, pending upgrade of the system and the track. We just do not have the time like we did with Isabel...Hopefully though, nothing happens and the system goes "dud".

[gatorcane]

The inherent problem with storms that develop close to home is evacuation plans. Ocracoke island is accessible by ferry only so it needs 48 hr lead time. Hatteras island needs 24 at least and hwy 12 floods with large surf conditions. There is simply not enough lead time in a lot of cases because storms can blow up quickly before landfall. Alex in 04 is a good example. It did scare a lot of tourists because of Cat 1 conditions and over wash isolating people in their homes. And it was only a Cat 1. Fortunately, most if not all also don't have enough time to make it to major. I haven't seen any intensity predictions, but I'm sure none are above Cat 1.

Check the Euro!

Yeah...a lot of things around here take time to prep, I can forsee the evac order going up here very soon, pending upgrade of the system and the track. We just do not have the time like we did with Isabel...Hopefully though, nothing happens and the system goes "dud".

It's way too early to really think its a Carolinas threat to me. Give the models a day or so to really zone in on it. I'm telling you right now some of them are seeing some kind of ridge passing by to the north that would push it west first...how much west or west southwest is the question..

It's just too early to say.

To me it looks like the more deeper, tropical convection is wanting to blow up farther south by each hour...so the real center may materialize farther south or east.

[HollynLA]

The inherent problem with storms that develop close to home is evacuation plans. Ocracoke island is accessible by ferry only so it needs 48 hr lead time. Hatteras island needs 24 at least and hwy 12 floods with large surf conditions. There is simply not enough lead time in a lot of cases because storms can blow up quickly before landfall. Alex in 04 is a good example. It did scare a lot of tourists because of Cat 1 conditions and over wash isolating people in their homes. And it was only a Cat 1. Fortunately, most if not all also don't have enough time to make it to major. I haven't seen any intensity predictions, but I'm sure none are above Cat 1.

Check the Euro!

Yeah...a lot of things around here take time to prep, I can forsee the evac order going up here very soon, pending upgrade of the system and the track. We just do not have the time like we did with Isabel...Hopefully though, nothing happens and the system goes "dud".

Woah nelly. It's just an invest right now with disagreeing models, no reason to start talking about evacuations yet. It probably will develop but as to where it's going is still a little sketchy.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now something the carolinas can hope for is that the
trough keeps this offshore from them, but landfall
as a hurricane would be very very bad.

[windstorm99]

[gatorcane]

notice the deep convections are now blowing up closer to 27N...about the lattitude of West Palm Beach/Ft Myers

The GOES Floater 3 shows this better:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

99L has gotten
pretty big. Wow the tropics continue to explode.

Off Topic
But Notable for GOM/West FL:
Strong Convection 150 miles west of tampa...yet another blob
Thread in talking tropics for this.

[cycloneye]

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041900Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 041900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.6N 76.8W TO 28.7N 73.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1010MB
IS LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA, MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20
TO 25 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIROMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
BUILDING RIDGE APPROACHES OVER THE AREA, FURTHER ENHANCING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 051900Z.//


Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert issued.

Chad,put this graphic in front page.

Graphic of TCFA

[gatorcane]

interesting it is moving ESE not E today...the more it loses lattitude the more interesting this track is going to get. A building ridge also would mean an eventual westward movement or even WSW movement you would think...

interesting....

[brunota2003]

000
FXUS62 KMHX 042004
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
404 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.SYNOPSIS...
-- Changed Discussion --
HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN OFFSHORE TONIGHT. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRES
WILL BUILD N OF THE REGION WED AND MOVE OFFSHORE THU. LOW PRES
WELL TO THE SE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW TOWARD THE CST LATE IN THE
WEEK AND MAY IMPACT THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE TRACK OF LOW PRES OFF THE SE CST.
MANY OF THE SRT RANGE MDLS NOW MOVE THE LOW SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT
CPL DAYS THEN BRING IT BACK NW TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA TO BE IMPACTED (POSS BY TROP SYSTEM) THIS
WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING LATER FRI AND
CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
FAIRLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH WED EVENING AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRES REMAINS NE OF THE AREA WITH WEAK LOW PRES WELL
TO THE SE. WINDS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST SOUTH.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFFORMENTIONED
AREA OF LOW PRES AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPACT OVER AREA WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. MODEL CONSENSUS BRINGS THE SYSTEM OVER OUR SE COAST LATE
SAT AND SAT NIGHT. LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK INDICATES SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER AREA WATERS
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH BEGINNING THU NIGHT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS
BETWEEN LOW TO THE SE AND HIGH TO THE NORTH. WAVEWATCH INDICATING
BIG SEAS DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT WITH 9 TO 12
FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 12 TO 14 OVER CENTRAL WATERS. GIVEN
UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT HAVE FOLLOWED CLOSELY TO PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH WINDS CAPPED AT 20 KT AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 6 TO 8 FT.

ALL MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER
WINDS/SEAS OVER AREA WATERS IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE SYSTEM
BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND A MORE DEFINITIVE TRACK AND STRENGTH
IS DETERMINED.


It's not a matter of what it is right now, it is truely a matter of time. If this system gets its act together and comes this way, they will have to rush the orders. As he said, some places are only accessable by ferry, and in order to evac everyone, need up to 2 days to complete. This is looking to hit this weekend (if it does)...that means Thursday or early Friday is the latest they can issue them, and that is indeed soon.

[Stormcenter]

There is definitely a spin there around 28 or 29 lat.
It is still moving eastward and is dealing with strong shear.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[HURAKAN]

It has been looking impressive the whole day. I would expect a depression or storm at the lastest tomorrow morning.

[gatorcane]

NWS Miami not concerned with it at all...and they act like it is just awaiting a trough to push it NE:

000
FXUS62 KMFL 041903
AFDMFL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
303 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES EAST
OF JAX IS FORECAST TO MEANDER IN THAT AREA BEFORE EVENTUALLY BEING
PICKED UP BY A TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER
HIGH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN IS FORECAST TO
STEADILY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THU-SAT AS
DRIER AIR GETS PUSHED SOUTHWARD ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW.
THUS...NEAR CLIMO POPS ARE FORECAST THROUGH WED WITH BELOW CLIMO
POPS THU-SAT.

[windstorm99]

interesting it is moving ESE not E today...the more it loses lattitude the more interesting this track is going to get. A building ridge also would mean an eventual westward movement or even WSW movement you would think...

interesting....

Yea gator how much will it continue moving ESE i think is a good question...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

IMO TS gabrielle by tomorrow morning.
TD at 11 pm today possibly.

[Brent]

I don't think this is headed to Florida... it has Carolinas or somewhere north of that written all over it.

I fully expect Gabrielle tomorrow afternoon when recon checks it out.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I don't think this is headed to Florida... it has Carolinas or somewhere north of that written all over it.

I fully expect Gabrielle tomorrow afternoon when recon checks it out.

I don't think it's a florida storm either, but the FL east coast should
keep watching it closely.

I do think this is probably headed for NC.

[HURAKAN]

At this point you can't point to a definite point in the US. (3 points!!!)

[Lowpressure]

This is looking like it will be a big storm- in size anyway. It may consolidate somewhere towards any LLC, but overall system is large.

[HollynLA]

I think it's way to early to start pinpointing areas and excluding others. All interests on the east coast from Florida to New England need to watch this one.