Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Recurve]

How's this for a track that heads south -- and would scare the crap out of everyone from OBX to NOLA, though this one peaked at Cat 1.

[HURAKAN]

Yesterday 2032Z (307N-784W)



Today 2032Z (293N-743W)

[Buck]

I think this may end up being our crazy-track-system of the year. We didn't really have one last year it seems... but 2005 had more than plenty.

[jrod]

The last few hours it has not looked so good. That is my guess on why it is not going to be upgraded. I do think this will be our crazy track and we'll be trying to figure out where this is going for days to come.

[jrod]

The last few frames in the visible appear to show an exposed LLC. The little ULL to the north and all thr dry air are keeping this in check for now. Anyway TWC only said it has the potential to develop in the days right now and it is disorganized.

[cycloneye]

It obviously is not a TD yet or the NHC would have issued an advisory. I guess they feel it lacks enough organization right now.

TWO will be out around 5:30. I'm still going to refresh the place where I get advisories just in case(Felix is already out), but usually we get a heads up from NRL or the models.

This time tommorow,you may refresh and get them.

[cpdaman]

ya the llc is exposed and the shear keeps coming

the system is drifting E or ESE

i dont see more than slow development until shear abates

when might that be? anyone

[jhamps10]

guys, I've seen on other sites, that a TCFA has been issued on 99L. confirm plz...

[cycloneye]

guys, I've seen on other sites, that a TCFA has been issued on 99L. confirm plz...

Is posted in this thread at page 19.

[HURAKAN]

guys, I've seen on other sites, that a TCFA has been issued on 99L. confirm plz...

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 041900Z SEP 07//
WTNT02 KNGU 041900
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 29.6N 76.8W TO 28.7N 73.0W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WITH AN ESTIMATED PRESSURE OF 1010MB
IS LOCATED EAST OF THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF FLORIDA, MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 7 KNOTS. ESTIMATED SURFACE WINDS ARE 20
TO 25 KNOTS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, ENVIROMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT
AS THIS SYSTEM REMAINS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A
BUILDING RIDGE APPROACHES OVER THE AREA, FURTHER ENHANCING THE
LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR
CANCELLED BY 051900Z.//

Look at page 19.

[chadtm80]

guys, I've seen on other sites, that a TCFA has been issued on 99L. confirm plz...

Confirmation - http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/atcf_web/images/al992007.gif

[jhamps10]

guys, I've seen on other sites, that a TCFA has been issued on 99L. confirm plz...

Is posted in this thread at page 19.

oh sorry then, just got in and was just skimming the sites and I saw that on another site.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow, this thing has really become organized. LLC around 29 north/74.5 west right under the head of the convection. Yes the shear is trying to shear the convection off to the east...But this is pretty much covered. Nice looking system at the moment.

[Brent]

5:30pm TWO:

A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
BERMUDA AND THE NORTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...AND WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS
IT MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

The large "C" means current. In its near where I place the center. This model moves it slowly east-southeast through out the next 2 days...Then curves it north and west again.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/nam ... 418/2.html

[HURAKAN]

Another DMAX and we have Gabrielle!!!

[Brent]

Another DMAX and we have Gabrielle!!!

I agree, I'm sticking by my prediction that Gabrielle will be here when recon checks it out tomorrow afternoon. I don't expect an upgrade to a TD before morning.

It's becoming better organized under quite a bit of shear... what happens when it lessens?!

[cpdaman]

matt it looks to me like the center is void of convection more so than any part of the day

slow development

[HURAKAN]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/sloop-vis.html

The LLC is partially exposed but nonetheless the system has become much better organized and that was confirmed by the NHC. We should see another increase in convection tomorrow morning which should led to a increase in organization and RECON should find a TC.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Look at close in visible in you will see that the LLC is near 29/74.5 moving slowly east-southeastward. It is not void of convection it is on the eastern side of the convection. It looks like a tropical storm.