Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Coredesat]

Keep in mind that NLMOC is very jumpy when it comes to TCFAs. They issued one on 98L and look what happened to it.

I don't see this becoming a (S)TD until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Surface obs don't seem to indicate any winds higher than 20kt, though Buoy 41010 (about 3 degrees west of 99L) is reporting 15kt winds.

[SeaBrz_FL]

From MLB WS. Translated: "Locally, expect massive surfer "sick day" this Friday."

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
228 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR 29N 75W HAS BEEN
MOVING SLOWLY EAST AND IS FORECAST BY THE MODELS TO CONTINUE
PULLING FURTHER AWAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE NORTH/NORTHEAST
GRADIENT FLOW TO START TO WEAKEN. DRIER AIR ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SYSTEM HAS KEEP ATLANTIC SHOWER ACTIVITY SUBDUED ALONG WITH
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT DURING DAYTIME HEATING OVER LAND. HAVE KEPT A
SMALL POP ACROSS THE SOUTH INTERIOR FOR THIS EVENING. THOUGH THE
WINDS HAVE A MOSTLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT AND HENCE WEAK ONSHORE
TRAJECTORY...WILL MAINTAIN A SMALL COASTAL POP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

WED...NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL FOCUS AFTERNOON CONVECTION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR COUNTIES. DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS POINTS TO THE AREAS NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND SOUTHERN OSCEOLA COUNTY FOR THE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES.

THU-TUE...FORECAST LARGELY HINGES ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE. LATEST CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR SUBTROPICAL/TROPICAL
DEVELOPMENT. WHAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
CYCLONE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL RESULT IN SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT
THROUGH THU. SUBSIDENT AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE SYSTEM WILL ADVECT
A SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR MASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN ADDITION
TO THE LOWER RAIN CHANCES...OCCASIONAL BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS CAN
BE EXPECTED...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST BEGINNING THU AFTERNOON. THOSE
VENTURING TO THE BEACH WILL NEED TO BE EXTRA CAUTIOUS IN THE
WATER...DUE TO THE ELEVATED RISK FOR DANGEROUS CURRENTS.

STRONG RIDGE BUILDING DOWN THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK WILL
EVENTUALLY STEER THE LOW NORTHWARD AS THE RIDGE SLIDES INTO THE NORTH
ATLANTIC. CONTINUED DRY WEATHER IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM WILL
PERSIST ACROSS CENTRAL FL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL LIKELY NOT BE
UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BECOME
REESTABLISHED ITSELF ACROSS THE STATE. DESPITE SOME DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING BACK NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA...FEEDBACK LOOP (I.E. DRY
AUGUST) SUGGESTS THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

[chadtm80]

I would love to see this classified tonight just so we could see the huge cone of uncertainty to follow.. lol

[Derek Ortt]

my thoughts on this at PNJ

http://www.pnj.com/blogs/weather/index.shtml

[fasterdisaster]

Keep in mind that NLMOC is very jumpy when it comes to TCFAs. They issued one on 98L and look what happened to it.

I don't see this becoming a (S)TD until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Surface obs don't seem to indicate any winds higher than 25kt, though Buoy 41010 (about 3 degrees west of 99L) is reporting 15kt winds.

30 mph winds are strong enough for a TD? Sorry I might be confused, is that what you're referring to, because 25 kt winds(in conjunction with all other criteria, which this system doesn't have yet) would signify a TD.

[windstorm99]

Cant really go with those models until we have a well established LLC.Right now its drifting ESE slowly.

[Coredesat]

Keep in mind that NLMOC is very jumpy when it comes to TCFAs. They issued one on 98L and look what happened to it.

I don't see this becoming a (S)TD until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Surface obs don't seem to indicate any winds higher than 25kt, though Buoy 41010 (about 3 degrees west of 99L) is reporting 15kt winds.

30 mph winds are strong enough for a TD? Sorry I might be confused, is that what you're referring to, because 25 kt winds(in conjunction with all other criteria, which this system doesn't have yet) would signify a TD.

I meant to say 20kt, since 25kt = 30mph. We need recon in order to be completely sure.

[Brent]

Keep in mind that NLMOC is very jumpy when it comes to TCFAs. They issued one on 98L and look what happened to it.

I don't see this becoming a (S)TD until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Surface obs don't seem to indicate any winds higher than 25kt, though Buoy 41010 (about 3 degrees west of 99L) is reporting 15kt winds.

30 mph winds are strong enough for a TD? Sorry I might be confused, is that what you're referring to, because 25 kt winds(in conjunction with all other criteria, which this system doesn't have yet) would signify a TD.

I meant to say 20kt, since 25kt = 30mph. We need recon in order to be completely sure.

Yeah I agree, I don't expect an upgrade before morning either. It's not an imminent concern and it's certainly not rapidly organizing right now, so there's no need to rush.

[fasterdisaster]

Keep in mind that NLMOC is very jumpy when it comes to TCFAs. They issued one on 98L and look what happened to it.

I don't see this becoming a (S)TD until tomorrow morning at the earliest. Surface obs don't seem to indicate any winds higher than 25kt, though Buoy 41010 (about 3 degrees west of 99L) is reporting 15kt winds.

30 mph winds are strong enough for a TD? Sorry I might be confused, is that what you're referring to, because 25 kt winds(in conjunction with all other criteria, which this system doesn't have yet) would signify a TD.

I meant to say 20kt, since 25kt = 30mph. We need recon in order to be completely sure.

Ah okay, yes you're right. I don't see it getting classified in the next 12 hours either.

[wzrgirl1]

should i surmise that south florida is fairly safe with this one?

[fasterdisaster]

should i surmise that south florida is fairly safe with this one?

Probably, but you should definitely watch carefully, because remember Hurricane Jeanne, in a similar location, was expected to turn away out to sea, but it actually did a loop and hit S FL. Not saying this will happen, but you just got to expect the unexpected with tropical systems.

[windstorm99]

should i surmise that south florida is fairly safe with this one?

My opinion not yet as it continues to drift ESE at the moment.Nobody knows exacty were this system is going to end up so iam thinking its fare game for the entire eastcoast.

[ConvergenceZone]

my thoughts on this at PNJ

http://www.pnj.com/blogs/weather/index.shtml

cool picture of you on that page Derek...I didn't think you were that young. For some reason I pictured you were much older. You have a great future ahead of ya...
Thanx for the the link and the info on the potentional storm....

[windstorm99]

Infrared loop...

[Extremecane]

recent ball of convection looks pretty close to the llc

[Recurve]

It looks like a Nor'wester.

Keys mets see it lifting away:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS ARE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORMS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS ADDITIONAL MID
LATITUDE VORTICITY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SUBSEQUENTLY...ALL GLOBAL
MODELS REVEAL CYCLOGENESIS IN VARYING DEGREES...WITH ETA BY FAR THE
MOST INTENSE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION...WITH PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED SUBTLE
UNDULATION DROPPING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PERHAPS THROUGH
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...CLOUD
LINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ACTIVATING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXPECTED
TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHOULD REACH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH NO PRONOUNCED TROPICAL WAVES ON THE HORIZON...CLIMO POPS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT.

[Coredesat]

Negative. Don't use IR to determine center position if you have VIS available.

[ConvergenceZone]

It looks like a Nor'wester.

Keys mets see it lifting away:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS ARE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORMS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS ADDITIONAL MID
LATITUDE VORTICITY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SUBSEQUENTLY...ALL GLOBAL
MODELS REVEAL CYCLOGENESIS IN VARYING DEGREES...WITH ETA BY FAR THE
MOST INTENSE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION...WITH PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED SUBTLE
UNDULATION DROPPING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PERHAPS THROUGH
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...CLOUD
LINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ACTIVATING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXPECTED
TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHOULD REACH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH NO PRONOUNCED TROPICAL WAVES ON THE HORIZON...CLIMO POPS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT.

the way I read it, they see it lifting away from Florida only NOT the USA... , hence the wording "our area",

[storms in NC]

my thoughts on this at PNJ

http://www.pnj.com/blogs/weather/index.shtml

How better can you say it? that is a good one cause that is what it is PNJ

[destruction92]

It looks like a Nor'wester.

Keys mets see it lifting away:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
350 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
SKIES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS ARE PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY...WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE MARINE DISTRICT...C-MAN STATION PLATFORMS INDICATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF AROUND 5 KNOTS.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
A MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS ADDITIONAL MID
LATITUDE VORTICITY DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. SUBSEQUENTLY...ALL GLOBAL
MODELS REVEAL CYCLOGENESIS IN VARYING DEGREES...WITH ETA BY FAR THE
MOST INTENSE. HOWEVER...ALL MODELS INDICATE THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL AWAY FROM OUR REGION...WITH PERHAPS AN ASSOCIATED SUBTLE
UNDULATION DROPPING DOWN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND PERHAPS THROUGH
OUR REGION WEDNESDAY. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...CLOUD
LINES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR DEEP CONVECTION WITH LEFTOVER
BOUNDARIES ACTIVATING DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS.
THEREFORE...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE POPS AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINTAINED.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXPECTED
TO LIFT FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION...A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
SHOULD REACH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
WITH NO PRONOUNCED TROPICAL WAVES ON THE HORIZON...CLIMO POPS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE KEPT.

the way I read it, they see it lifting away from Florida only NOT the USA... , hence the wording "our area",

Last time I checked Florida was part of the USA.
Now I can add "USA" to the list of things people exclude Florida from.

Here are some other things Florida is excluded from: "East Coast", "Gulf Coast", "Southeast", and now the "USA".