Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[vacanechaser]

Out to sea system(Bermuda)99%
Return to the US East Coast 01%

what supports that??? i have seen nothing really to show that... the ridge is forecast to build in over the top by all the models... out to sea, not likely AT THIS POINT... the gfs is the gfs, it always does the out to sea thing.. and the gfdl and the hwrf are run off the gfs, so, not very reliable either at this point...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[storms in NC]

2 different forecast

This one from Morehead City

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BIG STORY THIS PERIOD WILL BE TRACK OF LOW PRES OFF THE SE CST.
MANY OF THE SRT RANGE MDLS NOW MOVE THE LOW SLOWLY EAST THE NEXT
CPL DAYS THEN BRING IT BACK NW TOWARD THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND.
LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK...BUT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA TO BE IMPACTED (POSS BY TROP SYSTEM) THIS
WEEKEND. WENT CLOSE TO HPC WITH CHC POPS BEGINNING LATER FRI AND
CONT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


This on from Wilm


LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THIS FORECAST PACKAGE RESIDE IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW PRESSURE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THE GFS CONTINUES TO MAKE LARGE JUMPS IN ITS POSITIONING
AND TRACK WITH THE LOW...THE LATEST 12Z RUN TAKING THE LOW TO NEAR
CAPE LOOKOUT SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW...PLAN TO MENTION ONLY CHANCE POPS THIS
WEEKEND...THOUGH LOWER THAN THE 12Z HPC GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...THE
GFS CONTINUES TO TREND SLOWER WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR
LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. PLAN TO CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIME FRAME TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE FRONT.

[jrod]

Out to sea system(Bermuda)99%
Return to the US East Coast 01%

Im starting agree that this is looking more like a fish. Especially iff the center is trying form under that ball of convection. I am unsure if that ridge will even be able to build over it given the trend of the last few hours. Tommorow we will have a good idea of what will become of this and where it is going.

[wxman57]

I made a graphic of some of the better global models. GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, and CONU (consensus model). Only the 18Z GFDL misses the east U.S. coast. Of course, as I said, all will depend on just where it stalls before moving northwest then north.

[fasterdisaster]

HWRF would be devastating All that with only slight weakening as it just skirts the coast!

[hurricanedude]

such a track would be bad for OBX and Virginia Tidewater

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The following forecast is NOT official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster
and may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information please
check the national weather service or national hurricane center.

most likely a north carolina hurricane
heat content and gulf stream and it is so far east
the ridge would curve it probably into north carolina that's
my prediction

[Rainband]

Models mean notta right now. It's not even a TD and it's not moving

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models mean notta right now. It's not even a TD and it's not moving

i know north carolina was probably too specific
but for us- i think we're pretty safe here in western fla...i dont think this
will do a jeanne or anything like that???
now east coast should watch it...

[fasterdisaster]

Models mean notta right now. It's not even a TD and it's not moving

i know north carolina was probably too specific
but for us- i think we're pretty safe here in western fla...i dont think this
will do a jeanne or anything like that???
now east coast should watch it...

East Coast includes you. You should watch it .

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Models mean notta right now. It's not even a TD and it's not moving

i know north carolina was probably too specific
but for us- i think we're pretty safe here in western fla...i dont think this
will do a jeanne or anything like that???
now east coast should watch it...

East Coast includes you. You should watch it .

Well florida's east coast should keep an eye but I don't see
how this would cause any problems along the west coast
where I live...especially with all the globals wxman
posted going to NC...now models can change
but a shift from NC to FL is pretty unlikely...
or I am just amateur but also i feel safe right now.

Cause see here yesterday i was worried about it
doing a Jeanne but now thats not likely
the ridge is no where near as strong as in 2004.

[fasterdisaster]

Well florida's east coast should keep an eye but I don't see
how this would cause any problems along the west coast
where I live...especially with all the globals wxman
posted going to NC...now models can change
but a shift from NC to FL is pretty unlikely...
or I am just amateur but also i feel safe right now.

Cause see here yesterday i was worried about it
doing a Jeanne but now thats not likely
the ridge is no where near as strong as in 2004.

I agree, I doubt it will hit you, I'm just saying you never know, and you should always keep an eye on the tropics.

[jaxfladude]

Out to sea system(Bermuda)99%
Return to the US East Coast 01%

Wish I thought you were correct.. But if you check the models.. I would say your percentages were off by a good bit.. But here's hoping you are right anyway

Just wishing no landfalls for the USA!
Hey the Appalachian State University Mountaineers upset the University of Michigan Wolverines so anything is possible...

[storms in NC]

I Really hope that we would get something here. don't care if it is a cat1.

Went to Greenville today for Dr appt. and the trees are dieing cause of NO water and the high heat. The rivers you can just about walk across. Not good. So blast me away for wanting it. But I think it will go just off shore or NC Va line. JIMO

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

intriguing...

always got a keep an eye out

not sure what it's doing right now...
though i think at least a depression is likely tomorrow.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I Really hope that we would get something here. don't care if it is a cat1.

Went to Greenville today for Dr appt. and the trees are dieing cause of NO water and the high heat. The rivers you can just about walk across. Not good. So blast me away for wanting it. But I think it will go just off shore or NC Va line. JIMO

According to some models you could see nearly cat 2 or cat 3...but too early to tell...
we'll have to see how strong it is...but yes I think you could get some
pretty heavy rain from it...

[HURAKAN]

YOU GOTTA LOVE THE TROPICS:

TS ARLENE 2005:


TS ALBERTO 2006:


INVEST 99L 2007:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

hurakan based on those pics id say depression right now 35 mph

[txwatcher91]

I Really hope that we would get something here. don't care if it is a cat1.

Went to Greenville today for Dr appt. and the trees are dieing cause of NO water and the high heat. The rivers you can just about walk across. Not good. So blast me away for wanting it. But I think it will go just off shore or NC Va line. JIMO

Our yard is becoming bare dirt it has been so dry. Only 1.25 inches of rain for the August, average is almost 6 inches.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well, the trend of the models is enough for concern. East coast threat. Most likely a significant threat. The landfall point is more likely in NC than S FL at this point. But when the system stacks up and IS tropical ( now it's not, broad circ.) then time will be all too short for folks on OBX and other areas with long lead times for evacuation.

This sytem has been under shear and dry air for quite a while now, and yet with the southern moisture envelope it has been able to fire enough convention to hold on. It could get ground down by the upper level conditions, but it sure does not look like there is something coming in on the synoptic level to change all the model solutions. If there is, someone should point it out.

The uncertainty is the slow development and blockinh high pressure which does not allow the system to start following a steering current.