Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I Really hope that we would get something here. don't care if it is a cat1.

Went to Greenville today for Dr appt. and the trees are dieing cause of NO water and the high heat. The rivers you can just about walk across. Not good. So blast me away for wanting it. But I think it will go just off shore or NC Va line. JIMO

Our yard is becoming bare dirt it has been so dry. Only 1.25 inches of rain for the August, average is almost 6 inches.

You'll probably get 6-8 inches this weekend if those globals wxman57 posted verifies
but the bad part might be wind and storm surge if it gets really strong

[Javlin]

I made a graphic of some of the better global models. GFS, GFDL, NOGAPS, HWRF, and CONU (consensus model). Only the 18Z GFDL misses the east U.S. coast. Of course, as I said, all will depend on just where it stalls before moving northwest then north.

You know WX57 I have never been that big a fan of the models except as a guidance at best but in the last few years and esp. thus far this year are getting alot better in there product output.I would say that after Felix and the quality that the CONU did with it I am definitly going to keep an eye open on that models output.Lets hope that they keep feeding it the right info.

[RL3AO]

Any buoys to show signs of a closed circulation?

[fasterdisaster]

Sorry but what does OBX stand for?

[HURAKAN]

TS EDUOARD 2002:



3A 30.30 -79.70 09/02/12Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM
4 30.50 -79.40 09/02/15Z 35 1007 TROPICAL STORM


Edouard after it was just named. To me that low pressure (Edouard) looks to be connected to a cold front.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Sorry but what does OBX stand for?

outer banks of north carolina, where i think future gabrielle will go

[hurricanetrack]

Note: 18Z GFDL position of 29.2 and 73.3 at 00z (6 hours from 18z) is not correct if one goes by the 00z hurricane models which put the center at: 29.3 74.3

That is about 60 miles WEST of where the GFDL said it would be at this time.

If anyone is up at 2am or later, plot the 6z hurricane model initialization against the 18 and 0z GFDL and see what ye get. The less this moves east now, the more west it is likely to come later.

But that's just my opinion in this matter based on a little science and math there. Nothing much to it, just an observation....

NOTE: this post was an error. The coords I posted above are NOT 00Z hurr models but 18Z. My bad. GFDL is pretty much on track now, apparently. I'll stick to not making assumptions anymore....

[fasterdisaster]

Sorry but what does OBX stand for?

outer banks of north carolina, where i think future gabrielle will go

Thanks

[storms in NC]

Well Leave it all to you all. Going to bed have to go to Duke Hospital in AM. 30 year old daughter having heart surgery. Be back late like around 6-7PM will check in the AM before I leave. So have Fun guessing.

Deb

[jrod]

I was premmature in saying it looks like it might go out to sea earlier. My guess is the possble center is between St Augustine and Daytona. The convection on the east side refuses to go away, tommorow will be an interesting day.

[chadtm80]

How I see it..

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[txwatcher91]

The CPC offers eastern NC some hope...

[Brent]

HUGE blowup of convection. If this is not Gabrielle tomorrow I will be very surprised.

[angelwing]

Ack, in a way I hope this doesn't come true, that's going to be a lot of flooding to drive thru from SE PA to NJ, all I keep hearing on the local news here is a "possiblility" of rain for this weekend.

[brunota2003]

Rain! Wait, what is rain? I forgot...Though the winds and debris we can use without Wonder how many construction sites (aka Big Debris Fields) there are around here that are not watching carefully?

[fasterdisaster]

Wait so right now is it tropical or subtropical?

[NCWeatherChic]

Well Leave it all to you all. Going to bed have to go to Duke Hospital in AM. 30 year old daughter having heart surgery. Be back late like around 6-7PM will check in the AM before I leave. So have Fun guessing.

Deb

Deb, your daughter is in our prayers tonight that everything goes smoothly and she recovers quickly. My 2 1/2 yr old had open heart surgery at UNC Hospital when he was 7 days old. It's hard knowing what your child is going through.

[Noles2006]

faster - looks to be closer to tropical, if you ask me...

[Weatherfreak14]

Even though SC has a lesser chance i say from Hilton Head, SC north still has a threat of this thing moving in that direction but i think it will make landfall north of Georgetown,sc.