Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[RL3AO]

i wonder why the NHC hasn't upgrade it yet...

Most of the pro mets think it is still extratropical.

[JonathanBelles]

I am pretty sure (99%) this is at least a TD and likely a TS.

[Derek Ortt]

Mike,

The LGEM is an intensity not a track model. It is the latest version of SHIPS using a logistic growth equation

[jaxfladude]

Any chance of a special tropical disturbance statement?

[cycloneye]

I have a feeling there have been more than one heated discussion tonight there...if Stacy was there he would have probably intimidated someone to start writing advisories by now (smile)...

MW

Maybe the unusual delay after 11 PM may be because of that.

[caneman]

Any chance of a special tropical disturbance statement?

May be why its taking so long.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Any chance of a special tropical disturbance statement?

Already had one

[Wthrman13]

Kinda looks like that trough is curling up (becoming inverted?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If the steering flow keeps pushing this SE it may end up with an anticyclone over it and then were cooking, from an outflow perspective

easy to see if you go to CIMMS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/# turn on the shear display

I mentioned that above, the upper-level trough appears to be taking on a negative tilt (not becoming inverted). It's leading to greater UL divergence over the LLC, and also probably contributing to the increase in convection we are seeing. This is typical of intensifying extratropical disturbances as well as subtropical ones. The bottom line really is that there isn't a clear-cut boundary between extratropical, subtropical, and tropical, but rather more of a spectrum.

[caneman]

Kinda looks like that trough is curling up (becoming inverted?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If the steering flow keeps pushing this SE it may end up with an anticyclone over it and then were cooking, from an outflow perspective

easy to see if you go to CIMMS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/# turn on the shear display

I mentioned that above, the upper-level trough appears to be taking on a negative tilt (not becoming inverted). It's leading to greater UL divergence over the LLC, and also probably contributing to the increase in convection we are seeing. This is typical of intensifying extratropical disturbances as well as subtropical ones. The bottom line really is that there isn't a clear-cut boundary between extratropical, subtropical, and tropical, but rather more of a spectrum.

Would this affect track in any way?

[Wthrman13]

Would this affect track in any way?

If anything it means the UL is trying to close off which would tend to weaken the steering currents in the immediate vicinity of the storm. To be honest I haven't looked in detail at the model fields to see if that is what they are trying to do, but I imagine given that they generally drift the system east, and then back west as the ridge rebuilds, that it's something along these lines.

[Roswell_Atup]

Any chance of a special tropical disturbance statement?

Already had one

there's none in the NHC...

[BensonTCwatcher]

Kinda looks like that trough is curling up (becoming inverted?)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

If the steering flow keeps pushing this SE it may end up with an anticyclone over it and then were cooking, from an outflow perspective

easy to see if you go to CIMMS http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/# turn on the shear display

I mentioned that above, the upper-level trough appears to be taking on a negative tilt (not becoming inverted). It's leading to greater UL divergence over the LLC, and also probably contributing to the increase in convection we are seeing. This is typical of intensifying extratropical disturbances as well as subtropical ones. The bottom line really is that there isn't a clear-cut boundary between extratropical, subtropical, and tropical, but rather more of a spectrum.

Gotcha,

Lots systems seem to become "borderline" but fewer seem to get fully tropical. Looks like its steadily moving to the tropical part of the spectrum though.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Any chance of a special tropical disturbance statement?

Already had one

there's none in the NHC...

Was thinking TCFA..

[MGC]

As this system isn't going anywhere any time soon there is no urgency to upgrade what might not yet be a TC or STC. We will know when recon get there is 99L is warm core or not.....MGC

[hurricanedude]

MGC....thats the best statement said all night

[Emmett_Brown]

I'd be shocked if this is not upgraded to TD status before 5am. And I think this one is a GA or Fl storm

Interesting. Why do you think it will be a N FL or GA storm?

For what it's worth, that seems like a possibility to me as well. Ridges have been underforecast by the models this year, some models have had a right bias, and tracks have shifted W and S in general on previous storms, so a more W track would not be a shocker. I think a lot rides on how far S and E the center sets up. Per the GFS, there will be a fairly strong ridge to the N in 36 hours:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_36.gif

Of course, the models move this ridge rapidly off shore, but as they do, they actually expand the ridge at least temporarily:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/slp_48.gif

The model holds the storm stationary during this time. Interestingly, at 48 hours, the steering current at 500 mb is forecast to start becoming NE just N of the Bahams. If the storm is a little further W by that time, it could act to guide it W:

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/5av_48.gif

[Brent]

Where is the TWO?!

[hurricanedude]

whens the last time the TWO was almost an hour late?

[HURAKAN]

Where is the TWO?!

50 minutes late.

[cycloneye]

00z GFS will start to roll at 11:30 PM,but still the TWO is not out?