Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Bane]

it must be one heckuva debate.

[srainhoutx]

As this system isn't going anywhere any time soon there is no urgency to upgrade what might not yet be a TC or STC. We will know when recon get there is 99L is warm core or not.....MGC

Agree Totally. Model runs that have been posted show slow development and slow movement for the next 3 days. Plenty of time for proper attention by NHC/TPC.

[HURAKAN]

Latest.

[windstorm99]

Models could be wrong but there has been a trend this evening on keeping 99L of the coast and out to sea.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

the models and globals underestimated the
ridge with dean and felix
high threat imo between georgia
and north carolinas outer banks.

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, you are right about the models. I had no clue they were trending out to sea like that...I guess I hadn't checked them in awhile. I guess we'll see if the trend continues to shift east..

[brunota2003]

I can see it now, clips boards flying across the room. IT IS!! NOT! TOO! NOT DANG IT!!! I'm the met in charge and I say it isnt, that is final.

EDIT: Also, you know you are a hurricane nut when you know the TWO is exactly an hour late and counting

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Regardless of specific location
3-4 days out,
it is likely to be
very windy
from north carolina south
to melborne,fl with
gusty winds of 30-40 mph
well away from the center...

[BigA]

I can see it now, clips boards flying across the room. IT IS!! NOT! TOO! NOT DANG IT!!! I'm the met in charge and I say it isnt, that is final.

That made me smile. Honestly, I think that the TWO will say something to the extent of "continued signs of organization...conditions marginally favorable, but could become more so tomorrow...potential of tropical or subtropical development."

In any case I think it will be classified tomorrow.

[jhamps10]

Latest.

OK if this isn't a TS, then I want to know what is then. sorry, count me in the ranks of bashing NHC for not issuing advisories right now on it, I don't give a crap if it's very slow moveing, or that recon will be in tomorrow, it's this close to the US mainland, plus the biggest threat to the US BY FAR this year, and they are not issuing advisories.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Models could be wrong but there has been a trend this evening on keeping 99L of the coast and out to sea.

lots of things to happen before that recurve, so out to sea without a US landfall is one of a bunch of possibilties

[Brent]

OK, seriously what is up? It's 11:30 and no TWO yet. It's making me very suspicious.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Latest.

OK if this isn't a TS, then I want to know what is then. sorry, count me in the ranks of bashing NHC for not issuing advisories right now on it, I don't give a crap if it's very slow moveing, or that recon will be in tomorrow, it's this close to the US mainland, plus the biggest threat to the US BY FAR this year, and they are not issuing advisories.

I agree one thousand percent. I've seen this organized through out today, and this may really be a threat to the east coast.

[HURAKAN]

OK, seriously what is up? It's 11:30 and no TWO yet. It's making me very suspicious.

This is giving the word "patience" a new meaning!!!

[southerngale]

OK if this isn't a TS, then I want to know what is then. sorry, count me in the ranks of bashing NHC for not issuing advisories right now on it, I don't give a crap if it's very slow moveing, or that recon will be in tomorrow, it's this close to the US mainland, plus the biggest threat to the US BY FAR this year, and they are not issuing advisories.

Bashing NHC? Not a good idea... if you want to bash them, you need to keep it off the board.

From the Storm2k Rules & Announcements forum:

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[windstorm99]

OK, seriously what is up? It's 11:30 and no TWO yet. It's making me very suspicious.

I think iam going to drive up there and wake up beven or who ever is on staff.Its only about 5-10 minutes away from me.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

due to pressure gradients..we have
sustained winds of 20 mph likely
well away from the center that means
gusts of 30-36 mph away from the center
and if this moves west
those gusts would hit 40 mph.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/shmrn.php?mz=anz088

ANZ088-050830-
CAPE FEAR TO 31N OUT TO 32N 73W TO 31N 74W
1030 PM EDT TUE SEP 4 2007


OVERNIGHT
NE WINDS 15 TO 25 KT...EXCEPT FAR E PORTION
INCREASING TO 25 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000
FM...6 TO 8 FT BUILDING TO 7 TO 10 FT LATE. HIGHEST WINDS AND
SEAS E. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

WED
W OF 1000 FM...NE WINDS BECOMING 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS E. E OF 1000 FM...NE WINDS 20 TO 30
KT...HIGHEST FAR E. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 TO 12 FT...HIGHEST FAR E.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGHOUT.

WED NIGHT
W OF 1000 FM...NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7
FT...HIGHEST SE. E OF 1000 FM...NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO
12 FT. HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS SE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
THROUGHOUT.

THU AND THU NIGHT
WINDS BECOMING E TO NE 20 TO 30 KT
THROUGHOUT LATE THU. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM...8 TO
14 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRI
E TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...EXCEPT OVER SE PORTION
BECOMING SHIFTING WINDS 20 TO 30 KT LATE. SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO
14 FT THROUGHOUT.

SAT
SHIFTING WINDS 20 TO 30 KT...BECOMING W TO SW 20 TO 30 KT
LATE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT E OF 1000 FM...8 TO
12 FT LATE.



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/forecast/MapCli ... &map.y=204
This is a sample from NE Florida:

Hazardous weather condition(s):


Hazardous Weather Outlook
Short Term Forecast


Overnight: Mostly clear, with a low around 73. Northeast wind around 7 mph.

Wednesday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 2pm. Partly cloudy, with a high near 86. Breezy, with a northeast wind 8 to 11 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph.

[ConvergenceZone]

well, even though the models due want to keep this out to sea now, it can still generate large swells along the coast and a good amount of rain. Perhaps this may be the prayer NC is looking for, just a rainmaker, but let's hope it's not too much rain too fast...

[fci]

Latest.

OK if this isn't a TS, then I want to know what is then. sorry, count me in the ranks of bashing NHC for not issuing advisories right now on it, I don't give a crap if it's very slow moveing, or that recon will be in tomorrow, it's this close to the US mainland, plus the biggest threat to the US BY FAR this year, and they are not issuing advisories.

"count me in the ranks of bashing NHC for not issuing advisories right now on it"
HEY!!!................This is a "no bash zone"!!

"it's this close to the US mainland, plus the biggest threat to the US BY FAR this year, and they are not issuing advisories"This is NOT a threat right now.
Potentially it is.
Could be a fish
Might not
No hurry until there is something substantive and when IT IS classified.
Not really close to the mainland if it is drifting away

Relax!

[cpdaman]

do subtropical storms tend to have larger wind fields then tropical cyclone's? i understand that extra tropical lows/ storms do