Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[windstorm99]

Thoughts on the NGM i posted?

[DESTRUCTION5]

Thoughts on the NGM i posted?

Never heard of the thing

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thoughts on the NGM i posted?

yes thats what im saying with the strong ridge possibilty
like jeanne 04 and then it recurves i think to carolinas...
but im not sure.

[windstorm99]

Thoughts on the NGM i posted?

Never heard of the thing

The NGM is a short range model that forecasts variables such as temperature at various levels of the atmosphere, amount of precipitation, position of upper level toughs and ridges, and the position of surface high and low pressure areas. In the nested grid model and others like it, the atmosphere is divided into squares, or a grid, for various levels of the atmosphere. Grids with smaller squares are "nested" inside larger ones for areas forecasters are particularly interested in, such as North America. The smaller the grids, the more calculations that have to be made and the bigger the computer needed. The resolution of the NGM is about 80 kilometers. The NGM produces forecasts every 6 hours from 0 hours to 48 hours into the future. It is run twice a day.

Source

[cycloneye]

00z GFS is more left.

[Wthrman13]

Thoughts on the NGM i posted?

Never heard of the thing

The NGM is a short range model that forecasts variables such as temperature at various levels of the atmosphere, amount of precipitation, position of upper level toughs and ridges, and the position of surface high and low pressure areas. In the nested grid model and others like it, the atmosphere is divided into squares, or a grid, for various levels of the atmosphere. Grids with smaller squares are "nested" inside larger ones for areas forecasters are particularly interested in, such as North America. The smaller the grids, the more calculations that have to be made and the bigger the computer needed. The resolution of the NGM is about 80 kilometers. The NGM produces forecasts every 6 hours from 0 hours to 48 hours into the future. It is run twice a day.

Source

The NGM is basically worthless compared to the other models. It's a very old model whose code was frozen long ago that is only still run to build up statistics. In other words, ignore it.

[Brent]

00z GFS is more left.

Which probably means the consensus will shift west again... the GFS was more left at 12z and most had a hit on the East Coast.

[tolakram]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

The center is visible on the ir2 loop. Convection still well east of center.

[brunota2003]

What is that squall line looking thing setting up on the SW side of the system? Is that normal during transition from extratropical to tropical?

[cpdaman]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html

The center is visible on the ir2 loop. Convection still well east of center.

this loop shows me convection on NE side may be showing signs of beginning to wrap around westward ( as a tropical system should)

Adrian if this thing starts to wrap convection that may be signs the shear is abating as well as the steering currents subsiding, if this things becomes stationary sooner than forecast, and THEN begins moving more westerly, it may not feel the trough and turn as far north (as well as not having to move as far west to reach the coast). especially depending on the ridge building down late thursday. but this is speculation and i would think the carolina's and outer banks stick out like a soar thumb

[brunota2003]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
29N73W AT 05/0300 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 32N70W. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 69W-73W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N AND WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST.

[wzrgirl1]

woke up to see the models trending a tad bit west....what does this mean for the overall track

[cpdaman]

woke up to see the models trending a tad bit west....what does this mean for the overall track

you woke up kinda early huh.

oh and it may or may not mean anything , just have to wait for some consistency

depends on the strength and how far west the edge of the ridge builds

[Epsilon_Fan]

I hope this thing would get moving in whatver direction it wants... I don't want this having days organizing over the Gulf Stream right next to Chas, SC! TS or TD, fine, but no canes here please! Especially how this season's been going...

[Roswell_Atup]

98L invest is up again in NRL

[Chacor]

98L invest is up again in NRL

Uh... no it isn't. Also, what does that have to do with 99L? What are you trying to achieve?

[Chacor]

AGXX40 KNHC 050713
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
300 AM EDT WED SEP 5 2007

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

UPPER LEVELS...
LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER WRN ATLC FROM CYCLONIC VORTEX AT
31N75W TO SECOND CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER CENTRAL CUBA FORCED
DOWNSTREAM MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EASTWARD. UPSTREAM RIDGE OVER
GULF OF MEXICO MAINTAINS DRY SUBSIDING AIR MASS OVER MOST OF
BASIN EXCEPT BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE MOISTURE BANDS FROM FELIX
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THROUGH THU. CARIBBEAN SEA REMAIN SPLIT
WITH RIDGE OVER FELIX EXTENDING OVER MOST OF WRN HALF AND
CYCLONE ALOFT AT 13N65W PROVIDING DRY CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS ERN
HALF.

SURFACE...
SEE NHC FORECAST FOR TROPICAL STORM FELIX INLAND OVER NICARAGUA-
HONDURAS BORDER QUICKLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES W OVER MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. EXPECTED TO BECOME REMNANT LOW PRES TONIGHT AS IT
DISSIPATES.

LOW PRES 1007 MB AT 29N73W DRIFTING E COULD DEVELOP INTO
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 36-48 HRS IF UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE. SHEAR FROM ABOVE MENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
REMAINS ADVERSE TO INTENSIFICATION...NEVERTHELESS STRONG WINDS
WITHIN 240 NM OF CENTER COULD HAVE BEEN OBSERVED

WITH CENTRAL ATLC RIDGE FORCED EASTWARD BY TROUGH...CARIBBEAN
TRADES HAVE DIMINISHED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT TO
MODERATE THROUGH SAT.

WARNINGS...
ATLANTIC...NONE.

CARIBBEAN...NONE

GULF OF MEXICO...NONE.

FORECASTER WALLY BARNES

[Coredesat]

Looks quite weird, more like a strong frontal system than a developing tropical cyclone:



Not sure this will be upgraded given this turn of events.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L


No, that is a feeder band pulling moisture into the system from the tropics. Maybe a weak trough "line" like system. But fsu shows this has developed more of a warm core....Also the models are shifting westward...Watch them, because this high to the north should build quite strong, it would not blow me away if it went even farther south. Also one more thing to think about is the fact that there is a high to the north of this system. So you have pressure grad between the high and the low pressure=higher winds. This may have a area of tropical storm force winds in the northern quad.