Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Thunder44]

From the 5:30am TWO:

The non-tropical low located about midway between Bermuda and the
northeast Florida coast has changed little in organization during
the past several hours. Upper-level winds are forecast to become
more favorable for this system to develop into a tropical or a
subtropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. This low has been
drifting eastward but it should begin to move erratically during
the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the system Wednesday afternoon...if
necessary.

Forecaster Avila

[Cookiely]

99 looks terrible this morning. Sort of like a taffy pull. What's elongating the system? Is it shear?

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Kind of looks like Alison with its long tail. That is what you call a feeder band. Also maybe Arlene at one point of her life.

[KWT]

It does remind me of one of those extratropical systems we get a lot here in the UK with the frontal tail coming out of comma cloud, it did look very tropical around 0300 UTC however and I doubt its changed that quickly. Best watch to see how it evolves over the next 12hrs. It may well just be a feeder band but it does remind me of a developing front as well.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[HURAKAN]

05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

[Hurricane Cheese]

05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

Subtropical Depression?

[HURAKAN]

05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

Subtropical Depression?

Dvorak classification is tropical.

SHIP S 0900 28.30 -69.40 94 116 190 24.1 - - - - - 29.85 -0.06 82.4 82.9 - 12.4 6 - - - -

24 knots far from the center measured by this ship.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its not subtropical because it has a "T"=tropical. Also Fsu shows a soild warm core with this system.

[HURAKAN]

SHIP S 0600 27.40 -72.30 118 216 230 31.1 - 16.4 12.0 - - 29.84 +0.02 76.1 84.2 72.3 - - - - 12.0 180

Won't get surprised if RECON finds tropical storm winds. Another ship, far from the center, measured winds up to 31 knots. The NHC is waiting not because of lack of measurements, but because the system is not a menace and there's a RECON for this afternoon.

[KWT]

Given the increasing pressure gradient that this will have I also wouldn't be at all surprised to see TS force winds and it wouldn't take much organisation to get upto a mid-TS strength even if it is still being sheared. Once the shear does ease down then we should see it getting a more textbook shape then it has now i'd have thought.

[Thunder44]

99 looks terrible this morning. Sort of like a taffy pull. What's elongating the system? Is it shear?

Yes, shear it pushing most of the convection east of the center, although it has increased since yesterday. The low-level center appears to be still broad and elongated, but I've seen TPC classify hybrid-system like this in the GOM and Western Carribean. I think since most models show a possible landfall threat, they likely will upgrade it later today, unless it disogranzies more. The shear is forecast to relax over next few days, as well.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Coredesat]

The shortwave IR loop shows the convection moving eastward and running away from the nearly stationary circulation center. The first visibles will be definitive.

[HURAKAN]

First visible:

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[wxman57]

Center appears to be near 29.5N/73.4W, a bit west of that convective burst. Once the high pressure builds north of the low over the next 24 hours, the shear should let up and development can be rapid.

[PhillyWX]

Center appears to be near 29.5N/73.4W, a bit west of that convective burst. Once the high pressure builds north of the low over the next 24 hours, the shear should let up and development can be rapid.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

Wind shear starting to slacken off to the east of the Carolinas, north of the low, per the tendency map at CIMSS.

[storms in NC]

NWC in Morehead city Looks to stay off shore. But it is still a wait and see. Well have to go. back at 6PM

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO THE W LATE FRI AS HIGH PRES TO
THE N MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL EITHER SAT OR
SUN FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR TO CAPE HATTERAS TO STAYING OFFSHORE AND
AS EITHER A TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL NOT VERY ORGANIZED AND UNTIL IT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE EXPECT
THE UNCERTAINLY TO CONTINUE. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS
AROUND 70 AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

[HURAKAN]