Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[RL3AO]

The LLC is at about 29.0N 71.5W right?

[Weatherfreak14]

The LLC is at about 29.0N 71.5W right?

yea i think its half exposed and half covered.

[HURAKAN]

Hurricane Earl, 1998:


Invest 99L, 2007:

[wxman57]

05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak estimates will be a bit high because the center is assumed to be beneath the convection as per the position of 72.3W. The center is actually about 60-70 miles west of there, exposed.

[HURAKAN]

05/0645 UTC 29.2N 72.3W T2.0/2.0 99L -- Atlantic Ocean

Dvorak estimates will be a bit high because the center is assumed to be beneath the convection as per the position of 72.3W. The center is actually about 60-70 miles west of there, exposed.

SHIP S 0600 27.40 -72.30 118 216 230 31.1

I don't think the estimate is high.

[SCHawkFan]

NWC in Morehead city Looks to stay off shore. But it is still a wait and see. Well have to go. back at 6PM

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WITH THE
HANDLING OF THE LOW PRES OFF THE SE COAST. MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS
BEGIN TO RETROGRADE THIS SYSTEM TO THE W LATE FRI AS HIGH PRES TO
THE N MOVES WELL OFFSHORE. MODELS OFFER A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS IN
REGARD TO TRACK AND INTENSITY WITH POSSIBLE LANDFALL EITHER SAT OR
SUN FROM NEAR CAPE FEAR TO CAPE HATTERAS TO STAYING OFFSHORE AND
AS EITHER A TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL HURRICANE. THE SYSTEM IS
STILL NOT VERY ORGANIZED AND UNTIL IT BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE EXPECT
THE UNCERTAINLY TO CONTINUE. FOR THE TIME BEING HAVE STAYED CLOSE
TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTENDED WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S...LOWS
AROUND 70 AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EACH DAY.

That does not say they look for the system to stay offshore. It says the models show a wide range of solutions, anything from landfall to staying offshore.

[cycloneye]

We will know by two ways if NHC will send the plane to 99L.First,the plan of the day product and second the 11:30 AM EDT TWO.Lets watch those this morning to see if the mission will get going or not.

[brunota2003]

Also from NWS MHX:

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
DIFFICULT FORECAST AS WE DEAL WITH THE POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF TROPICAL
SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH ARE STILL
VERY UNCERTAIN BUT THE MODELS SEEM TO BE COALESCING ON A SOLUTION
OF RETROGRESSION NEAR THE COASTAL CAROLINAS AROUND SATURDAY.

IN THE SHORT TERM HIGH PRES WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NORTH CONTINUING THE PREVAILING NE FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS.
THE NE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN THURSDAY AS THE AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER WELL OFF THE SE COAST BEGINS TO DEVELOP. THE
MODELS DEVELOP ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS EARLY AS LATE THURSDAY BUT I
HELD OFF ON THESE UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND
INSTEAD WENT WITH THE CONTINUITY OF THE CURRENT FORECAST. ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ALL WATERS ON FRIDAY WITH NE FLOW TO 25 KT
POSSIBLE.

THE SPREAD IN THE MODELS IS NARROWING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM. THE NOGAPS AND THE ECMWF ARE THE LEFT/SOUTHERN
OUTLIERS WITH TRACKS INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA RESPECTIVELY.
THE CANADIAN/GFS/GFDL AND UK MET ALL SKIRT THE STORM ALONG/JUST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL UNKNOWN
BUT TROPICAL STORM FORCE OR HIGHER WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. FOR
NOW I WILL LIMIT SUSTAINED WINDS TO 25 KT AND SEAS TO 10 FEET
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. ALL MARINE INTERESTS
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE HIGHER WINDS/SEAS OVER AREA WATERS
IN FUTURE FORECASTS AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED AND A
MORE DEFINITIVE TRACK AND STRENGTH IS DETERMINED.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY IF THE LOW TRACKS AWAY FROM
THE AREA AS DEPICTED IN THE CURRENT SLATE OF MODELS.

.RIP CURRENTS...ONSHORE FLOW...HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND MINIMAL
SWELL WILL BRING A MODERATE THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS TO THE BEACHES
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TODAY.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:


LLC seems to be becoming exposed.

[Frank2]

The frontal low is still moving eastward this morning:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

last night, Steve Lyons first said that it might affect the east coast, but, later in the evening, he must have seen a 00Z model run, because, he then mentioned that if the system continued moving eastward (as it is this morning), then, it'd be less likely to affect land...

Frank

[cpdaman]

looks pretty clear that center is around 72 west per that picture

now for the shear to abate

[Bane]

it's probably been exposed most of the night. once shear decreases, we may be dealing with a deepening threat to the coast.

[HURAKAN]

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Exposed LLC, moving NEward.

[Frank2]

I agree, Hurakan...

Last night, Steve Lyons and other OCM's (CNN, FOX) mentioned so many "it might develop if this were to happen" elements this system, that it almost sounded like fiction - as it looks this morning, it seems unlikely to develop into anything that would be a concern, other than for marine interests - if anything...

[cpdaman]

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

quikscat

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Blows Barry away. Over the last 3-4 hours the center has been exposed, in fact it was exposed even farther from the convection a hour ago. The LLC is with in 30-40 nmi of the convection now. Not bad for being under 20+ knot shear...Also the LLC is no longer broad by any level of the word this morning. If they upgraded barry they will upgrade this. In fact once the shear rebates I expect this to strengthen nicely.

[Frank2]

The official issue is that the LLC and related convection is still moving ENE, so, as long as that continues, whatever does develop will remain well offshore...

[cpdaman]

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Exposed LLC, moving NEward.

it's NOT moving NE that loop has the latitude and longitude lines moving SW which appear to make the system move ne

Frank it's drifting east, and please don't make guarantee's you can't keep, the system is still very much a threat