Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Bane]

I agree, Hurakan...

Last night, Steve Lyons and other OCM's (CNN, FOX) mentioned so many "it might develop if this were to happen" elements this system, that it almost sounded like fiction - as it looks this morning, it seems unlikely to develop into anything that would be a concern, other than for marine interests - if anything...

i wish i had your optimism. the models continue to trend westward with this. i wouldn't mind a cat1 or less just from a rainfall standpoint.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

See the tight "rings" of the LLC. It is centered very close to the convection.

[Lowpressure]

Unless this system gets some convection back over the center, it may not do anything. Shear is to relax today, but it does not look good right now. LLC is well defined but naked. I say no go on recon today based on exposed LLC and not moving towards the coast, plenty of time to fly in when/ if it becomes a bigger threat.

[Bane]

Loop:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... is_floater

Exposed LLC, moving NEward.

it's NOT moving NE that loop has the latitude and longitude lines moving SW which appear to make the system move ne

it's drifting east, and please don't make guarantee's you can't keep, the system is still very much a threat

i think you're right. it looks almost stationary on the loop when you discount how much the lat and long lines are moving.

[Bane]

Unless this system gets some convection back over the center, it may not do anything. Shear is to relax today, but it does not look good right now. LLC is well defined but naked. I say no go on recon today based on exposed LLC and not moving towards the coast, plenty of time to fly in when/ if it becomes a bigger threat.

i actually think they'll keep the flight scheduled. it is close enough to the mainland to warrant recon.

[windstorm99]

This whole mess looks non-tropical to me to be honest.Overal the center itself seems to be exposed, and the shear is still high so any significant development isn't looking to likely today.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

So you think that a system should be upgraded only when its a threat to land? WOW. The LLC is strong and defined this morning unlike yesterday. Also it is near convection as stated above. Once the shear decreases watch it strengthen at a good clip. In yes I think this will be a threat.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This whole mess looks non-tropical to me to be honest.Overal the center itself seems to be exposed, and the shear is still high so any significant development isn't looking to likely today.

So you feel that Barry,Arlene,Alison,Alberto where all extratropical. Hey I will admit that they might of been subtropical to a point at one point in there lifes.

[ronjon]

Agreed WS, until wind shear drops from the 20+ kts we won't see significant development - but as wxman57 says, as soon as the high builds in from the north, look out, conditions will rapidly improve and we already have a 1007 mb LLC in place. I see the center exposed at 29N-71.5W this morning - movement stationary or a slight drift to the west.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[Frank2]

Haw - I couldn't guarantee that I'll be sitting at this computer 5 minutes from now!

No, I'm just mentioning what Steve Lyons said last evening - as long as the entire system (LLC and convection) continue eastward, then, it decreases any possible risk to the east coast.

Personally, I think the media jumped on this last night (TWC, CNN and FOX) because it was the ultimate weather story - a developing tropical cyclone that would affect the U.S. mid-Atlantic and northeast - fortunately, so far, it seems to not be developing as they "hoped"...

You'll hear no guarantees from me - hopefully I'm not that foolish - but, I do mention what I see, and, what I see is a eastward moving system...

Frank

P.S. I also agree with windstorm99...

[windstorm99]

There are baroclinic signatures present so this systems identity in my opinion is up for question...I say more under sub-tropical TD for now.

Upper level winds will have to put in there part first.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



Exposed.

[cycloneye]

Looks much more tight and well defined than yesterday.

[windstorm99]

Chances are going out the window if this keeps up.

[cpdaman]

from Melbourne NOAA discussion

HOW CLOSE IT PASSES TO FL WILL DEPEND ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE
RIDGE...BUT ATTM IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF THE FL
COAST. HOWEVER...THE EXTENDED NE FLOW WILL ADVECT A MODERATE TO
LARGE SWELL INTO THE LCL WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

There are baroclinic signatures present so this systems identity in my opinion is up for question...I say more under sub-tropical TD for now.

Upper level winds will have to put in there part first.

The system is becoming tropical based on fsu core data. Yes it is not intensely warm core but becoming so. Also durning the latest satellite shows that that feeder band/trough boundry that was hanging from the south, is now starting to wash out. Over all the area of convection appears to be mostly formed by tropical means. Do I think this could have some extratropical/baroclinic things to it, to a point. But you can say that for Barry,Alison,Arlene,Alberto, and a long line of systems. Really we will know more when the recon gets into the system...It could be soildly warm core like the recon found for Barry. Shear stops develop but it does not stop it from being a tropical cyclone. Once the ridge forms to the north,,,and the cyclone moves under it, watch for the shear to decrease.

Can't wait for recon....

Also the high could be building at the surface. Stopping the cyclone/LLC. But at the upper levels the eastward movement of convection is still occuring. The high has to build upwards through the Atmosphere to catch the convection. Yes there is shear.

[ALhurricane]

I don't think it is any surprise that it looks bad right now considering that the shear is not expected to relax until late tonight/early tomorrow. We should then see this system become better organized. Anybody writing this off is not looking at the big picture and is reacting to short term trends. All model guidance continues to develop this as well which is noteworthy.

[O Town]

Quickscatt was taken 2 hours before this satellite image but its still showing almost exactley what the new visible is, the center is having a hard time staying under the convection with the strong shear.





Maybe this has a better chance in the coming days if shear does indeed relax. I wouldn't write it off just yet.

[windstorm99]

With that exposed LLC dont see anything significant happening through today.

[cpdaman]

windstorm if you are looking for development today you will be dissapointed

i think it will hold its own or strengthen slightly and then late tonite and tomorrow it will "do it's thing"

i'm trying to get myself off the computer b/c i know i will go crazy watching this thing all day