Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Lowpressure]

:uarrow: Looks much more tight and well defined than yesterday.

What, does? I do not see it here. The LLC is better defined, but totally void of convection. What convection is there is still moving further away from the LLC. I know conditions are forecast to improve later this week, but for now it is not impressive.

Convection needs to wrap around the LLC for it to be much more than just an interesting feature.

[ronjon]

Let's not forget that this system has a ton of model support - every single global and dynamic tracking model develops it. Based on this, I have a lot of confidence that we will see something develop into a tropical cyclone and probably a strong one given some of the model intensity forecasts. Track still in doubt but I don't think there is much question it will develop when conditions become more favorable tomorrow.

[Bane]

so far, recon still seems scheduled for today. i don't think this gets going until tomorrow at the earliest.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: Looks much more tight and well defined than yesterday.

What, does? I do not see it here. The LLC is better defined, but totally void of convection. What convection is there is still moving further away from the LLC. I know conditions are forecast to improve later this week, but for now it is not impressive.

Convection needs to wrap around the LLC for it to be much more than just an interesting feature.

I was only talking about the low,not about the convection.

[windstorm99]

windstorm if you are looking for development today you will be dissapointed

i think it will hold its own or strengthen slightly and then late tonite and tomorrow it will "do it's thing"

i'm trying to get myself off the computer b/c i know i will go crazy watching this thing all day

Honestly until upper level winds relax which currently are 20-30kts in the region nothing is going to get to organized.Mayabe yes during the next day or two we could see more development.As of now i would call this a sub-tropical TD.

[Lowpressure]

Most of us, as well as models agree that this will develop into a tropical system. I just do not see it in the short term. Recon gets more interested once convection gets back in line with LLC.

Friday, this will be a very different discussion.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Most of us, as well as models agree that this will develop into a tropical system. I just do not see it in the short term. Recon gets more interested once convection gets back in line with LLC.

Friday, this will be a very different discussion.

You can bet on that

[Lowpressure]

:uarrow: Looks much more tight and well defined than yesterday.

What, does? I do not see it here. The LLC is better defined, but totally void of convection. What convection is there is still moving further away from the LLC. I know conditions are forecast to improve later this week, but for now it is not impressive.

Convection needs to wrap around the LLC for it to be much more than just an interesting feature.

I was only talking about the low,not about the convection.

10-4, I know what you meant here, it is just until shear relaxes nothing going on here. Although 1007 is not a good sign from an exposed low and it is well organized. Once it stacks it may be a rapid organizing system.

[windstorm99]

The LLC is somewhat better defind but the convection is getting pulled away by 20-30kts of windshear.Not impressive from my point of view.

We'll see what the coming days bring.

[vacanechaser]

windstorm if you are looking for development today you will be dissapointed

i think it will hold its own or strengthen slightly and then late tonite and tomorrow it will "do it's thing"

i'm trying to get myself off the computer b/c i know i will go crazy watching this thing all day

Honestly until upper level winds relax which currently are 20-30kts in the region nothing is going to get to organized.Mayabe yes during the next day or two we could see more development.As of now i would call this a sub-tropical TD.

i dont see the sub part of this storm...just because the convection is not around the center does not make it sub-tropical.. if i am correct, watkins said some of the models show this already as a tropical system...jmo fwiw


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxman57]

Correction to my earlier post. Now that I'm at work I can see that the true LLC was being hidden by a shadow from the large convective complex to its east. The Dvorak center estimate wasn't too bad, but it's actually a little closer to the convection. Very tight circulation now. If/when the shear lets up it can develop very quickly. The farther east it starts from, though, the less the chance that it will reach the east U.S. coast once it begins tracking west and northwest on Friday/Saturday. Watch where the models (not BAMs, they're junk here) initialize the center on the 12z runs to see if they get the starting point right.

Oh, and it's not a subtropical low, it's tropical. Not much question of that. Rita formed in just about the same way (trailing end of a cold front) not too far south of this disturbance , and no one called Rita a subtropical storm. FSU phase diagrams show warm core all the way.

[windstorm99]

Tropical/nontropical with that exposed LLC nothing is going to get going very fast.Should upper level winds relax things may change.

[MWatkins]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

[vacanechaser]

Tropical/nontropical with that exposed LLC nothing is going to get going very fast.Should upper level winds relax things may change.

yes, you are correct... just pointing out the fact that this is not sub-tropical... i agree, until the shear weakens, nothing much from this...




Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Typhoon_Willie]

Yes it is getting rather heavily sheared right now!

[vacanechaser]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

agreed... not sure why they have not done it yet... strange... seems like several storms in the past looked worse than this and were named.. very odd to me.... inconsistant



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MiamiensisWx]

Tropical Depression Ten (2004)



INVEST 99L (2007)



I think the inconsistency stands for itself in these images. Additionally, 99L is located less than 650 miles from Bermuda. The poorly organized TD 10 was situated near the Azores. 99L deserves a classification, in my opinion. It is clearly a subtropical or tropical system, and the LLC is located closer to the convective activity. Evidently, shear has been slowly decreasing over the past several hours - look at the latest CIMSS chart and satellite imagery. The strong divergence is weaker, too.

[Lowpressure]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

Do the estimates of 2.0 and the 1.5 assume the LLC is stacked under the convection?
Or does it look at the actual scenario?

Chuck

[MWatkins]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

Do the estimates of 2.0 and the 1.5 assume the LLC is stacked under the convection?
Or does it look at the actual scenario?

Chuck

Those estimates are based on the current sat appearance (they could see the exposed center).

Yes it is getting sheared. Tropical storms get sheared all the time...that does not mean they aren't tropical storms.

MW

[BensonTCwatcher]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

Mike, They might be waiting due to the shear. It could grind down the convection ( I doubt it, all other data, and all the mdels developing it) Recon data would make a lock in my mind. I need to look at some WV data to see what the trough is doing. It still kind of look like some baroclinic action going on. That trail of clouds to the SW.

edit:Just looked at WV loop data. Looks like the trough could be working up to an ULL there is some "wrap" to the WV data and the UL winds have some cyclonic. If that did happen, this thing might poof out. Some dropsonde data will clear that up today.