Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[Chacor]

969
NOUS42 KNHC 051430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT WED 05 SEPTEMBER 2007
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2007
TCPOD NUMBER.....07-104

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (OFF FLORIDA- GEORGIA COAST)
FLIGHT ONE
A. 06/1800Z
B. AFXXX 02GGA INVEST
C. 06/1415Z
D. 28.6N 72.0W
E. 06/1730Z TO 06/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO
A. 07/0600Z
B. AFXXX 03GGA CYCLONE
C. 07/0200Z
D. 29.0N 73.5W
E. 07/0500Z TO 07/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 6-HRLY FIXES AT 07/1800Z
IF SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND IS A THREAT

II.PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
JWP

Recon does not appear to have been cancelled.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Recon should find 40 mph ts gabrielle imo

[Emmett_Brown]

I think what we should take from the lastest model runs is two things:

1. The ridge appears to be stronger in the last several runs. The NOGAPS, GFDL and HWRF models have therefore trended to the west.

2. There is still poor agreement, and this trend may not be over.

Therefore, a Georgia storm is not out of the realm of possibility in my opinion. Granted, the models did not initialize the system as far east as it is, but the overall trend to the left could be important to GA, and maybe even N FL if it holds.

[cycloneye]

FLIGHT ONE
A. 05/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01GGA INVEST
C. 05/1700Z
D. 29.5N 74.0W
E. 05/1930Z TO 05/2300Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

1:00 PM takeoff and near the system around 2 PM.

[LarryWx]

This thing continues to drift to the east....It may not comeback all the way to the coast if this continues.

This is all true, but again it depends on the strength of the ridge.

My take is that it largely depends on a combination of two unknowns:
1) How much, if any, the models are underdoing the strength of the ridge that follows. The more it is underdone, the more the threat to the SE below NC as it would then be able to travel further west.

2) How far east it gets..it is already approaching 71.0 W with some easterly motion continuing. Many models don't ever get it that far east. For example, the 0Z ECMWF only takes it to 73 W.

Factor one won't be known for a good while. However, factor two is already in the process of being determined and is already favoring much less threat to SC/GA/FL than would have been the case had the low been further west. So, even if factor one is significant, factor two could still easily keep SC/GA/FL safe. The two factors cancel each other to some extent. For areas near and below Charleston to have much threat, factor one needs to be strong and factor two weak. Well, factor one, the total unknown, could very well end up being strong..we won't know for awhile. However, factor two is already known to a large extent, clearly isn't weak and is getting stronger. So, with this in mind, I see very little threat to areas near and below Charleston whether or not the ridge is underdone on the model consensus.

[Stormcenter]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Gulf stream waters are very warm.
TWO mentions that conditions will become
more favorable. So here goes:
24 hours- 60 mph Tropical Storm
48 hours- 85 mph Hurricane
72 hours- 110 mph Hurricane
This weekend: Landfall within 100 nM of carolinas
as a 120 mph Category 3 Major Hurricane.
Cannot rule out GA/SC with models underestimating
ridge.

Whoa I think you are really giving this a lot more potential then I would.
I mean we are not talking about Carribean waters here now.

[deltadog03]

Sticking with the euro...in fact, most models seem to have shifted west over night

[Stormcenter]

This thing continues to drift to the east....It may not comeback all the way to the coast if this continues.

This is all true, but again it depends on the strength of the ridge.

My take is that it largely depends on a combination of two unknowns:
1) How much, if any, the models are underdoing the strength of the ridge that follows. The more it is underdone, the more the threat to the SE below NC as it would then be able to travel further west.

2) How far east it gets..it is already approaching 71.0 W with some easterly motion continuing. Many models don't ever get it that far east. For example, the 0Z ECMWF only takes it to 73 W.

Factor one won't be known for a good while. However, factor two is already in the process of being determined and is already favoring much less threat to SC/GA/FL than would have been the case had the low been further west. So, even if factor one is significant, factor two could still easily keep SC/GA/FL safe. The two factors cancel each other to some extent. For areas near and below Charleston to have much threat, factor one needs to be strong and factor two weak. Well, factor one, the total unknown, could very well end up being strong..we won't know for awhile. However, factor two is already known to a large extent, clearly isn't weak and is getting stronger. So, with this in mind, I see very little threat to areas near and below Charleston whether or not the ridge is underdone on the model consensus.

Good post.

['CaneFreak]

This thing continues to drift to the east....It may not comeback all the way to the coast if this continues.

This is all true, but again it depends on the strength of the ridge.

My take is that it largely depends on a combination of two unknowns:
1) How much, if any, the models are underdoing the strength of the ridge that follows. The more it is underdone, the more the threat to the SE below NC as it would then be able to travel further west.

2) How far east it gets..it is already approaching 71.0 W with some easterly motion continuing. Many models don't ever get it that far east. For example, the 0Z ECMWF only takes it to 73 W.

Factor one won't be known for a good while. However, factor two is already in the process of being determined and is already favoring much less threat to SC/GA/FL than would have been the case had the low been further west. So, even if factor one is significant, factor two could still easily keep SC/GA/FL safe. The two factors cancel each other to some extent. For areas near and below Charleston to have much threat, factor one needs to be strong and factor two weak. Well, factor one, the total unknown, could very well end up being strong..we won't know for awhile. However, factor two is already known to a large extent, clearly isn't weak and is getting stronger. So, with this in mind, I see very little threat to areas near and below Charleston whether or not the ridge is underdone on the model consensus.

This is an excellent post. The only thing I personally would add is the fact that at days 4 and 5 models seem to be sensing a weakness in the ridge coming for DAYS 4 AND 5. I think a front is on the way from the plains and it ALL DEPENDS ON WHERE OUR SYSTEM IS WHEN THAT WEAKNESS ARRIVES AT THE COAST. This is A LONG WAYS OUT. Nobody knows for certain. Good post, though. Couldn't have said it better myself.

[dwg71]

Recon should find 40 mph ts gabrielle imo

I dont think they will find Gabby IMO, not yet anyway. And the further east the convection gets away from the center, the chances of development are smaller.

[ronjon]

Larrywx , good post I think we all see your points. If you look at the 06Z GFDL, I believe it brings the system to at least 70W, so that's still 1.5 deg or so east of where it is now. Yet, it still brings the storm west to near Savannah. We all have to remember that steering currents will be very weak the next 24 hrs as the trough lifts out and the ridge builds in. So it could meander in almost any direction until the west movement begins.

[cpdaman]

i think factor 1 can make factor 2 a complete moot point

i would watch for a southeast than south west component as this thing starts to turn around and "meander more" in the next 24 hours

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Gulf stream waters are very warm.
TWO mentions that conditions will become
more favorable. So here goes:
24 hours- 60 mph Tropical Storm
48 hours- 85 mph Hurricane
72 hours- 110 mph Hurricane
This weekend: Landfall within 100 nM of carolinas
as a 120 mph Category 3 Major Hurricane.
Cannot rule out GA/SC with models underestimating
ridge.

Whoa I think you are really giving this a lot more potential then I would.
I mean we are not talking about Carribean waters here now.

If this were the caribbean id be saying cat 4 150 mph but the heat
content is high enough for a cat 3 in the gulf stream.

[weatherwoman]

looking at the latest satalite pics the circulation center is not there what happened to it is it gone

[deltadog03]

LLC looked to have spun out and died. I wonder if there is another one further east?

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

LLC looked to have spun out and died. I wonder if there is another one further east?

looks pretty strong on the visibles posted on previous pages...

[Chacor]

... of? Felix? Felix is dissipating over land. Obviously it's gone.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

I will say 2 things regarding intensity and track:

1. For intensity, the convection is very close to the LLC, so I believe
that once shear lessens, as the latest TWO says that conditions will become
more favorable, rapid strengthening is likely with a building ridge to the north.
Several models make this a hurricane and GFDL brings it to Category 2.
That is not impossible given the warmth of the gulfstream waters and the several
days this system has over the water.

2. As for track, I do not see this going out to sea. As we have seen with
Felix and Dean, the early long-range models out 3-5 days tend to
underestimate the ridge. Therefore, I think the track and model
consensus should shift substantially to the left, increasing
the threat to the carolinas, and depending on the ridge, possibly
even georgia or florida. This early in the forecast, you cannot rule
these areas out.

Convection as certainly been impressive, and it is likely to consolidate
closer and closer to the low level circulation as shear lessens.

[deltadog03]

ok, i will have to go back and look.....Just didn't see it too well further SE

[CrazyC83]

QuikSCAT shows a closed circulation near 29.1°N 71.3°W...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

The highest wind barbs uncontaminated are 30-35 kt so I think this is TD7 right now...