Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[GeneratorPower]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

What is up with them this year? I wonder if politics is involved.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I will say 2 things regarding intensity and track:

1. For intensity, the convection is very close to the LLC, so I believe
that once shear lessens, as the latest TWO says that conditions will become
more favorable, rapid strengthening is likely with a building ridge to the north.
Several models make this a hurricane and GFDL brings it to Category 2.
That is not impossible given the warmth of the gulfstream waters and the several
days this system has over the water.

2. As for track, I do not see this going out to sea. As we have seen with
Felix and Dean, the early long-range models out 3-5 days tend to
underestimate the ridge. Therefore, I think the track and model
consensus should shift substantially to the left, increasing
the threat to the carolinas, and depending on the ridge, possibly
even georgia or florida. This early in the forecast, you cannot rule
these areas out.

Convection as certainly been impressive, and it is likely to consolidate
closer and closer to the low level circulation as shear lessens.

Could not of said it better...

[windstorm99]

Close-up 1KM visible of exposed LLC...

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

No question in my mind that recon goes out...and finds a tropical storm. Clearly a closed, tropical low.

SAB gives it a 2.0...TAFB a 1.5 at identical positions...

Simply baffling why this has not been upgraded.

MW

What is up with them this year? I wonder if politics is involved.

MWatkins i agree it is baffling imo.

[weatherwoman]

not felix the 99L LLC is gone has it died out?

[deltadog03]

There is always politics...lol I just wonder why they havn't either. I mean, we are not talking about the central or eastern atl. We are talking about something VERY close to the US

[Chacor]

Plane appears to have left early to check 99L.

[CrazyC83]

not felix the 99L LLC is gone has it died out?

No, it is well defined (and closed it appears - hence I believe it is TD7). It is just the convection is focused on the east side at the moment.

[windstorm99]

Here's another look at that quikscat...

[Bane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Gulf stream waters are very warm.
TWO mentions that conditions will become
more favorable. So here goes:
24 hours- 60 mph Tropical Storm
48 hours- 85 mph Hurricane
72 hours- 110 mph Hurricane
This weekend: Landfall within 100 nM of carolinas
as a 120 mph Category 3 Major Hurricane.
Cannot rule out GA/SC with models underestimating
ridge.

Whoa I think you are really giving this a lot more potential then I would.
I mean we are not talking about Carribean waters here now.

Actually, the waters off the coast are very warm. Sea surface temp at Wrisghtsville Beach is 84 degrees and has been as high as 86 in the last week. I understand that isn't necessary high oceanic heat content, but the closer you get to the coast, the deeper the warmer water will probaly be.

[shortwave]

well the good thing for the carolina coast, at the moment is the continued eastward motion, though barely. That digging ULL, http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html really putting the hold on developement. Wonder how that will effect the evolution of the systems developement and heading.

[Stormcenter]

Sorry but this looks like an easterly moving very sheared system right now unless I'm looking
at the wrong floater loop. It does not look impressive at the moment. All of the convection is being blown off to the NE. Yes I know the models say the environment will improve and will we have a hurricane but as long as this keeps on moving east the less likely if it does develop that it will affect U.S. East coast. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[Brent]

Plane appears to have left early to check 99L.

YAY!

Unfortunately I'll be gone for a few hours starting around 11:30.

[Frank2]

Per the WV loop, I just don't see anything very interesting - between dry air and shear, not a very favorable environment at this time...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

[Brent]

Per the WV loop, I just don't see anything worth getting too excited over...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html

Do you ever see anything worth getting excited over?

[Frank2]

You didn't give me a chance to correct my grammar (LOL)...

Sure I get excited - this just isn't one of those times...

[tolakram]

The one thing I've learned this season is to listen to the reliable and verifiable pro mets and respect a vigorous LLC. I'm patiently waiting for the shear to relax and expecting a rapid blow up.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Do you ever see anything worth getting excited over?

Brent I can interpret that question in a very humorous twisted way LOL
sorry couldn't resist..

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I guest once you track two cat5 hurricanes in two weeks hitting land, its hard to get excited or go back to watching these kinds of systems. I can understand.

[Stormcenter]

You didn't give me a chance to correct my grammar (LOL)...

Sure I get excited - this just isn't one of those times...

I must agree with Frank2.