Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#781 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:01 am

Brent wrote:
Frank2 wrote:Per the WV loop, I just don't see anything worth getting too excited over...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-wv.html


Do you ever see anything worth getting excited over?


A tropical cyclone threat is not exciteing but indeed fun to track while lives are not put at risk.I agree with frank on the WV loop.

Dry air says NOPE for now.

Image
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Coredesat

#782 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:04 am

That does not look like a vigorous LLC. It looks like an exposed, elongated one with no convection near it (convection is sheared to the E). Unless the center becomes covered, I would not expect an upgrade, especially with all that dry air entrained into the circulation. Shear appears to be worsening.

As for the upgrade itself, for the love of God, NHC decides whether to upgrade a system based on available data (Dvorak isn't always everything) - if they prefer to wait for recon, that's because they want to be sure before they upgrade. The system is barely moving, so they can afford to take their time. You can't tell the NHC how to do its job; they know what they're doing.
Last edited by Coredesat on Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#783 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:04 am

I got a question, did you get excited over tropical storm Barry or maybe Arlene,Alberto. All where exposed LLC. That is for real.
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Re:

#784 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:05 am

Coredesat wrote:That does not look like a vigorous LLC. It looks like an exposed, elongated one with no convection near it (convection is sheared to the E). Unless the center becomes covered, I would not expect an upgrade, especially with all that dry air entrained into the circulation. Shear appears to be worsening.

As for the upgrade itself, for the love of God, NHC decides whether to upgrade a system based on available data (Dvorak isn't always everything) - if they prefer to wait for recon, that's because they want to be sure before they upgrade. The system is barely moving, so they can afford to take their time. You can't tell the NHC how to do its job; they know what they're doing.


Another good post.
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Re:

#785 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:05 am

CrazyC83 wrote:QuikSCAT shows a closed circulation near 29.1°N 71.3°W...

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/dat ... MBas19.png

The highest wind barbs uncontaminated are 30-35 kt so I think this is TD7 right now...


Also note the lack of NE winds to the SW of the circulation. Prevoius LL wind plots and station plots showed the trough had more to do with the system. The progression to tropical continues. I think all the pros on here are in agreement on the data, synoptics, and obs. Throw in the models ( approporiate for this system at this lattitude) all trending for development and westward movement The clock has started, so Fridays discussions will probably be geared to preps. Anybody thinking this system is not a real threat is on the short odds of verifying. I was duboius of the models handling of the ridging this year. They have done a good job ( GFS, Euro, HWRF, ) I think we'll be seeing a cone in the morning that covers from the GA coast to NC/VA border
Last edited by BensonTCwatcher on Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Coredesat

Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#786 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:06 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I got a question, did you get excited over tropical storm Barry or maybe Arlene,Alberto. All where exposed LLC. That is for real.


I don't get excited about systems, I get concerned about them.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#787 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:06 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I got a question, did you get excited over tropical storm Barry or maybe Arlene,Alberto. All where exposed LLC. That is for real.



I got excited by barry and alberto because they
brought tropical storm force winds to me
and Barry was awesome with its direct hit
as a tropical system- not hurricane
WAHOOOOOO!!!!! That was for REAL. Oh Yea!!!
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#788 Postby Brent » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:07 am

11:30am TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
WELL EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE
OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


$$

FORECASTER PASCH

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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#789 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:09 am

Coredesat wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I got a question, did you get excited over tropical storm Barry or maybe Arlene,Alberto. All where exposed LLC. That is for real.


I don't get excited about systems, I get concerned about them.


Thats the point i was trying to make as tropical cyclones are fun to track but the reality of it is it can ruin lives and destroy property.Trust me i know having gone through andrews 150+mph winds along with wilma and a few others.
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Derek Ortt

#790 Postby Derek Ortt » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:10 am

conditions look to be becoming more favorable.. just looked at it with a collegue and we both agree that the shear should be lessening, flow seems to already be switching from SW to southerly
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re:

#791 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:11 am

Coredesat wrote:That does not look like a vigorous LLC. It looks like an exposed, elongated one with no convection near it (convection is sheared to the E). Unless the center becomes covered, I would not expect an upgrade, especially with all that dry air entrained into the circulation. Shear appears to be worsening.

As for the upgrade itself, for the love of God, NHC decides whether to upgrade a system based on available data (Dvorak isn't always everything) - if they prefer to wait for recon, that's because they want to be sure before they upgrade. The system is barely moving, so they can afford to take their time. You can't tell the NHC how to do its job; they know what they're doing.



The LLC appears to be about as organized as you can get one, with a weak system with out it being a full tropical storm. Quickscat shows a closed LLC with 30-35 knot winds. Fsu shows a warm core system...We all have options on how things work and why. But we are here because we enjoy doing this. We will see what recon has found, I've seen much worst upgraded. Its all recon from here on out...
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#792 Postby Chacor » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:12 am

SYNOPSIS FOR THE SW N ATLC INCLUDING THE BAHAMAS
1130 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007

.SYNOPSIS...LOW 29N72W 1008 MB WITH TROUGH TO CENTRAL CUBA. LOW
WILL POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE. LOW WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY THEN MOVE WNW AND THE TROUGH WILL
DISSIPATE WITH THE LOW PASSING NORTH OF 31N NEAR 78W SATURDAY.
RIDGE ALONG 24N E OF TROUGH WILL BE STATIONARY THROUGH THURSDAY
THEN DRIFT NORTH TO ALONG 27N SUN.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO Shortly

#793 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:12 am

Brent wrote:11:30am TWO:

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NON-TROPICAL LOW LOCATED
ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HAVE CHANGED LITTLE IN
ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE HEAVY SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
WELL EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE
OCCURRING. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT ESPECIALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME...ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN
ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF A TROPICAL OR A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD BUT LITTLE
OVERALL MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE
THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.


$$

FORECASTER PASCH




"ONLY A SMALL INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION COULD RESULT IN FORMATION..."
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Coredesat

Re: Re:

#794 Postby Coredesat » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:15 am

Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The LLC appears to be about as organized as you can get one, with a weak system with out it being a full tropical storm. Quickscat shows a closed LLC with 30-35 knot winds. Fsu shows a warm core system...We all have options on how things work and why. But we are here because we enjoy doing this. We will see what recon has found, I've seen much worst upgraded. Its all recon from here on out...


I agree about waiting for recon, but I'm just saying that it's a very weak-looking LLC with the strongest winds well removed from it. Unless something changes (like things becoming more favorable like Derek possibly hinted), I really can't see this being upgraded, although Barry and Chantal were - I still contend they shouldn't have been, but that's just my opinion and I respect the NHC's.
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Re: 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO at page 40

#795 Postby Three Blind Mice » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:16 am

Looks like convection building in that feeder band to the NW. first time I've seen anything on that side of the LLC.
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Re: Re:

#796 Postby seaswing » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:17 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote: Anybody thinking this system is not a real threat is on the short odds of verifying. I was duboius of the models handling of the ridging this year. They have done a good job ( GFS, Euro, HWRF, ) I think we'll be seeing a cone in the morning that covers from the GA coast to NC/VA border


I think they will extend the cone south to at least Jacksonville, FL IMO. these storms tend to meander and wobble and that makes folks nervous.

Seas
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Re: Re:

#797 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:21 am

Coredesat wrote:
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:The LLC appears to be about as organized as you can get one, with a weak system with out it being a full tropical storm. Quickscat shows a closed LLC with 30-35 knot winds. Fsu shows a warm core system...We all have options on how things work and why. But we are here because we enjoy doing this. We will see what recon has found, I've seen much worst upgraded. Its all recon from here on out...


I agree about waiting for recon, but I'm just saying that it's a very weak-looking LLC with the strongest winds well removed from it. Unless something changes (like things becoming more favorable like Derek possibly hinted), I really can't see this being upgraded, although Barry and Chantal were - I still contend they shouldn't have been, but that's just my opinion and I respect the NHC's.


Yes Barry and Chantel upgrades are still baffling to me too. I would not be surprised to see this upgraded just based on the previously mentioned history. But does that mean we will have a Cat.1 or 2 hurricane threatening the East coast this weekend? I would still wait before I start nailing up those plywood sheets if I lived there.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO at page 40

#798 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:23 am

I could almost agree with you on barry, but Chantel is another story. Chantel was the first real good looking system of the season.

Here is a pic of the Chantel.
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... _1328Z.jpg
Last edited by Matt-hurricanewatcher on Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:26 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#799 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:26 am

Latest:

Image

Image

99L vs. Arlene.
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Re: 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions,11:30 AM TWO at page 40

#800 Postby BigA » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:28 am

Hmm...a little blow-up near the center, and bands starting to curve in from the north, which actually reaches west of the center. May be a portent that conditions are slowly becoming more favorable.
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