Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[seahawkjd]

That group of storms coming around the top now. Is that the storm starting to build around itself or is the sheer still too strong?

[ronjon]

Latest SAT shows it separating from the tough to the SW. Convection starting to appear to the north of the center. It's slowly on its way to becoming a tropical cyclone.

[ConvergenceZone]

conditions look to be becoming more favorable.. just looked at it with a collegue and we both agree that the shear should be lessening, flow seems to already be switching from SW to southerly

Hey Derek, what's your opinion on the track of this thing? Thing it's going out to sea? I know more folks are calling for that now due to the east movement, but I'd like to see most of the models agreeing before jumping on that bandwagon for sure myself..

[cpdaman]

couple things

those who have watched this sytem and i mean looking at computer screen for 6 hours in a row can tell you this

1. it is doing better now than ever, with improved banding on north side

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

2. no it is not an IMpressive system (that's for sure) yet

also it's funny that the NHC calls it NOn tropical while other hear say it is tropical due to certain computer models "warm core" analysis/prediction

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

i think the upper trough is getting in a better position to allow this to strengthen into a subtropical depression and that a transition may occur to pure tropical late tommorrow

5am melbourne discussion AFDMLB
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF MID-UPPER TROUGH
OVER WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO CUT-OFF LATER TODAY/TONIGHT.
ASSOCIATED HYBRID SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 450 NM E OF
THE CAPE WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN AND DRIFT EASTWARD.

[tolakram]

Loop here:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html


So we have a clean quikscat image, and convection continuing to re-fire near the center. I think those claiming this doesn't look that impressive need to re-evaluate their criteria. The only thing that will keep this storm from blowing up, in my amateur opinion, is an unexpected increase in the shear.

[seahawkjd]

Another question. The storms now to the south. Are they still part of the trough or is there a group now starting to form below the circulation center coming out of the trough?

[chadtm80]

http://www.storm2k.org/wx

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[Stormcenter]

Loop here:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html


So we have a clean quikscat image, and convection continuing to re-fire near the center. I think those claiming this doesn't look that impressive need to re-evaluate their criteria. The only thing that will keep this storm from blowing up, in my amateur opinion, is an unexpected increase in the shear.

I'm using Dean and Felix (at their pre-TS/hurricane stages) as examples and the answer is still NO this does not look impressive at the moment. Now I'm not saying that it won't later tonight or tomorrow but for now it doesn't. It is still a severely sheared system with most if not all of the convection being blown to the NE.

[vacanechaser]

Loop here:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html


So we have a clean quikscat image, and convection continuing to re-fire near the center. I think those claiming this doesn't look that impressive need to re-evaluate their criteria. The only thing that will keep this storm from blowing up, in my amateur opinion, is an unexpected increase in the shear.

I'm using Dean and Felix (at their pre-TS/hurricane stages) as examples and the answer is still NO this does not look impressive at the moment. Now I'm not saying that it won't later tonight or tomorrow but for now it deosn't. It is still a severely sheared system with most if not all of the convection being blown to the NE.

well that is sort of silly to compare the three systems... this is in the mid lat. where the westerlies have a tendancy to effect the systems more than troughs would in the deep tropics.... plenty of systems have started out just like this... some of which people have posted examples of here... this is nothing unusual to see this close to the u.s. ... it does look impressive... dont look at just the convection, look at how weel and vigorous the low level center is... very well defined... 1007-1008mb pressure estimate??? come on.. we all know it is sheared, but there are other ways to see how well the system is doing... once the shear relaxes, its off to the races...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Frank2]

I agree with Stormcenter - as he said, the high is forecast to move east-southeast, but, on the other hand, it's very possible that this low might be ejected northeastward ahead of the approaching high, so, we'll see what happens...

Still, the NHC might, for the sake of marine interests, upgrade this to some sort of gale center (perhaps a subtropical storm), since the winds in thunderstorms are near gale force (I wouldn't want to be in a sail boat in gale force winds), but, this does not mean that the system is headed for the east coast - it just might very well remain a marine system - especially if it does get ejected towards the northeast (glad the TWO does confirm the continued east movement - also glad that those of us here who noticed this trend weren't seeing things)...

Incidentially, if the high were building north of the low (similar to what happened with Andrew), I'd agree that it might move westward in a big way, but, since this high is moving east-southeastward (in a Fall-like pattern), then, it's very possible that a frontal-type situation would develop ahead of the high, increasing the chance that the low will move northeastward, along the frontal-trough...

I'd like to know what the Pro-folks think of the above comment...

Thanks

[curtadams]

Very heavily sheared but the convection to the east is obviously linked to the LLC. They're moving together. This *is* a tropical, or at least subtropical, system.

[BUD]

One local Met said the most this storm will be is a very very weak TD and nothing else and hit the outer banks of NC.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't know folks, just looked at the latest model plots and they are screaming east coast
even more so than yesterday, they are trending more and more west that's for sure, so they
are obviously seeing something we aren't, which means, they expect the storm to stall and start moving west anytime soon. They did expect it to move east for awhile, which is what's it's doing...

[HURAKAN]

Latest:



The main problem here is that we don't have a definite answer for what should be called a "tropical cyclone" by looking at satellite images.

For example:
TS BETA


TS CHANTAL


Who looks more like a "tropical cyclone?" The obvious answer is Beta, but both are tropical cyclones according to the NHC.

[vacanechaser]

One local Met said the most this storm will be is a very very weak TD and nothing else and hit the outer banks of NC.

well, thats a local met for you... most have no clue.... sounds like a few that work here in hampton roads... i will leave it at that... just a bold silly statement to make at this point...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[HURAKAN]

1332Z:


1602Z:


LLC going under the convection.

[BigA]

The edges of the new convection are still sharply defined, meaning that it should keep expanding for a time.

[Lowpressure]

LLC does look to be a little broader than earlier. Convection on the increase, time will tell. Needs some protection on ther west side. Shear is the key currently.

[BUD]

One local Met said the most this storm will be is a very very weak TD and nothing else and hit the outer banks of NC.

well, thats a local met for you... most have no clue.... sounds like a few that work here in hampton roads... i will leave it at that... just a bold silly statement to make at this point...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree 100% I told my wife that he must be geting " Bonus checks" from the hotel company to report "good weather". I say this is a threat for SC/NC coast.