Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[MBismyPlayground]

Bud, you talking about Ed P.????
LOLOL Yea they always lessen the threat just to not scare tourists away.....

That is why I don't listen to them... read it here instead.

[cpdaman]

bonus check's from the hotel company ......that is sadly the only thing that makes any sense

l

recon heading in soon , just as it becomes better organized

who wants to bet 530 subtropical storm gabby or at least a mean looking STD

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

"If" it gets upgraded it will be a tropical cyclone.

[cpdaman]

matt how can you be so sure

last hour the nhc said a non tropical area of low pressure

i understand the transition usually takes a bit of time

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[BensonTCwatcher]

matt how can you be so sure

last hour the nhc said a non tropical area of low pressure

i understand the transition usually takes a bit of time

It's been transitioning since yesterday. I think we can see from sat presentaions and the change in interaction with the trough that the recom will confirm a TC. esp. with convection on the N side now and convection over the LLC.

[vacanechaser]

matt how can you be so sure

last hour the nhc said a non tropical area of low pressure

i understand the transition usually takes a bit of time

i would be very suprised if they say sub-tropical.. once recon gets in, they will find the temps support tropical...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[MGC]

I would have given the recon crew another day off. If 99L is upgraded today I'll be surprised. Yes, it is close but I'd like to see a bit more convection near the LLCC. Dry air and shear need to let up...MGC

[Stormcenter]

It still looks like it's moving ene.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-vis.html

[Stormcenter]

I would have given the recon crew another day off. If 99L is upgraded today I'll be surprised. Yes, it is close but I'd like to see a bit more convection near the LLCC. Dry air and shear need to let up...MGC

Yep and considering the cost of fuel and everything it would make economical sense.
This is not going to threaten (if it does at all) the U.S.anytime soon anyway.

[cpdaman]

i agree it is making the transition but my opinion is highly based on the 1130 TWO calling it non tropical

another key may be how much of that dry air to the west gets entrained as the system becomes better organized at the same time the dry air may wrap in the SW side

[Frank2]

I agree completely - though today's flight might be more for the marine (high seas) forecast, more than anything (not to mention Bermuda)...

Guess we'll see what the recon finds, since it does seem that (per the TWO) that they will find some fairly strong winds east of the LLC, but, I'm still not too impressed with the entire issue...

Still, that can be misleading - the one recon flight I was on found hurricane-force winds in gusts - in a thunderstorm - but, the system was still just a tropical storm, and, the NHC kept it that way...

LOL

Frank

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

[KWT]

I don't know stormcenter, 4-6 days isn't all that far away. There is a broad LLC it seems with a weak tighter LLC trying to keep itself going on the southern side of that main broader one it seems and they do appear to be heading slowly ENE.

[Frank2]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

There is the one swirl visible, but, there are likely multiple centers, as does happen with weak systems...

If they do upgrade the system, it'd likely be because the recon found gale-force winds well east of the center, so, for the safety of marine interests, depending on what they find, the NHC would perhaps make the system a subtropical storm...

[miamicanes177]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

Sometimes I feel the folks at NHC believe a system must be under less than 5kts of shear and have at least a 60% chance of becoming a category 5 hurricane within 36 hours before they'll declare it a tropical depression. This is why so many times NHC will start advisories when a system is already a strong tropical storm. Ideally, advisories would start when it is a weak tropical depression. We have to remember a tropical depression does not need to have the organization of a category 5 hurricane. It's ok if convection is displaced and it does not have under 5kts of shear over it.

[HURAKAN]

Latest:

[ConvergenceZone]

one thing for sure, I think the threat of a STRONG hurricane is steadily diminishing since
this is taking longer to get going. Not to mention the fact that the conditions aren't anywhere as good as they were for Dean or Felix. I do think that a weak hurricane can still get going
however....

[fci]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

Sometimes I feel the folks at NHC believe a system must be under less than 5kts of shear and have at least a 60% chance of becoming a category 5 hurricane within 36 hours before they'll declare it a tropical depression. This is why so many times NHC will start advisories when a system is already a strong tropical storm. Ideally, advisories would start when it is a weak tropical depression. We have to remember a tropical depression does not need to have the organization of a category 5 hurricane. It's ok if convection is displaced and it does not have under 5kts of shear over it.

They are the professionals and know what they are doing.
If they have not classified this the way you want them to it is because it is not warranted.
They have NOTHING to gain by delaying and I trust that they are handling this correctly.
Patience....patience.... patience....

[chris_fit]

This is very very rare, some people think a well defined LLC with convection over it, does not deserve upgrading. That is something you don't see to often.

This LLC does not have "convection over it." It has convection, just recently firing on the NE side of it, covering less than 25% of the LLC.

It looks like one of those "Vortexes" that'll just spin itself out for some reason