Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

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Meso
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Wave Currently Around 35W/36W

#1 Postby Meso » Mon Sep 03, 2007 10:54 am

Wow... There are 2 areas that the models are developing.. This area that is currently just off the coast/Coming off.And then the next wave coming off in about 2 or 3 days.

As for this one,it's currently looking decent.3 Models have been developing it,with the GFS now also showing a closed low forming with it.(CMC,UKMET and MM5 are the other models)

Image

Image
1012mb closed low.

Now this may well not do anything,but the fact that 3-4 models are showing something and there is a wave there warrants watching in my opinion
Last edited by Meso on Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2 Postby Meso » Mon Sep 03, 2007 12:39 pm

Image
The 12z CMC still showing some development.. Well a closed low with it.
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#3 Postby Meso » Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:41 pm

Image
Not sure if this EURO run is developing the system behind or the one in front due to the amount of hours between forecasts
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#4 Postby Meso » Mon Sep 03, 2007 5:03 pm

Image

The 18z Shows it as a closed low near the Caribbean
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#5 Postby HURAKAN » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:30 pm

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRETCHED GYRE COVERING CLOSE TO A 15
DEG E-W AREA. A FEW SURROUNDING SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A
PARTIAL QSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THIS CYCLONIC TURNING IS AT THE
SFC. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROTATION CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N...THUS A 1011 MB LOW IS ADDED TO
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC MAP TO REFLECT THIS. EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED A BIT...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY
LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY THE STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR
SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE.
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Re: Wave Currently Exiting Africa

#6 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:35 pm

TAFB in the same page as the 18Z GFS

Image
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Re: Wave Currently Exiting Africa

#7 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:47 pm

TPC 8:05 TWD

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT. THIS
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRETCHED GYRE COVERING CLOSE TO A 15
DEG E-W AREA. A FEW SURROUNDING SHIP/BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND A
PARTIAL QSCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THIS CYCLONIC TURNING IS AT THE
SFC. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ROTATION CONCENTRATED
ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N...THUS A 1011 MB LOW IS ADDED TO
THE 18Z SYNOPTIC MAP TO REFLECT THIS. EVEN THOUGH THE WAVE
STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED A BIT...SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS VERY
LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY THE STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR
SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE.
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#8 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Mon Sep 03, 2007 7:56 pm

If that 18z run verifies, then we could potentially be looking at 3 storms forming over the next week. Going to be an interesting time to watch for sure!
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Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#9 Postby Vortex » Wed Sep 05, 2007 7:25 am

Since exiting the coast of Africa about 3-4 days ago I've been impressed with the large envelope this wave/low has maintained. While there is limited convection at this time the overall structure is there...This system will continue moving west for the next 3-4 days and be near the northern Leewards Sat night/Sunday. As it continues westard it should slowly organize and convection will likely begin to fire near the developing LLC by late Friday...Several models track this system west towards Pueto Rico late this weekend...

Latest Vis...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#10 Postby Steve H. » Wed Sep 05, 2007 7:56 am

Agree Vort, I was just looking at that and surprised nobody else mentioned it. It is a very large area of circulation and seems to be starting to fire some limited convection to its southwest. That would be a barnburner if it developed 8-)
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#11 Postby Roswell_Atup » Wed Sep 05, 2007 8:07 am

was this the 98L invest or another wave?
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#12 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 8:20 am

Definately a large circulation with that wave but right now its void of any deep thunderstorm activity.Might that change as it moves futher west we'll see.
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#13 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 8:57 am

Jeff masters 9/5/07

African development?
The models unanimously forecast a tropical depression will develop near the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa 2-4 days from now. The models showed a similar degree of unanimity for the development of Hurricane Dean in a similar situation, so the chances of another named storm off the coast of Africa early next week are considerable.
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#14 Postby Meso » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:07 am

I also created a thread on this wave a few days ago when it emerged : viewtopic.php?f=31&t=97681&p=1619380&sid=9593bd3fc5fe91e4e2195ce3b86e8ca4#p1619380
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#15 Postby flwxwatcher » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:29 am

Vortex wrote:Since exiting the coast of Africa about 3-4 days ago I've been impressed with the large envelope this wave/low has maintained. While there is limited convection at this time the overall structure is there...This system will continue moving west for the next 3-4 days and be near the northern Leewards Sat night/Sunday. As it continues westard it should slowly organize and convection will likely begin to fire near the developing LLC by late Friday...Several models track this system west towards Pueto Rico late this weekend...

Latest Vis...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


Yes.. this has a rather Large envelope to it, This is something to keep a close eye the coming days IMHO.
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#16 Postby perk » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:35 am

flwxwatcher wrote:
Vortex wrote:Since exiting the coast of Africa about 3-4 days ago I've been impressed with the large envelope this wave/low has maintained. While there is limited convection at this time the overall structure is there...This system will continue moving west for the next 3-4 days and be near the northern Leewards Sat night/Sunday. As it continues westard it should slowly organize and convection will likely begin to fire near the developing LLC by late Friday...Several models track this system west towards Pueto Rico late this weekend...

Latest Vis...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-vis.html


Yes.. this has a rather Large envelope to it, This is something to keep a close eye the coming days IMHO.

Accuweather seem to think this system can slowly develop in the coming days.
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Re: Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

#17 Postby perk » Wed Sep 05, 2007 10:41 am

If this does form it will probably be north of 15 degrees, and not follow the dean/felix southern tracks.
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Re: Wave Currently Around 35W/36W

#18 Postby Zardoz » Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:41 pm

Correct me if I'm wrong, but this wave looks like it's possibly getting ready to do something:

Image


GOES East Rainbow


Image
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Re: Wave Currently Around 35W/36W

#19 Postby windstorm99 » Wed Sep 05, 2007 12:49 pm

Youre right convection has increased....
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Re: Wave Currently Around 35W/36W

#20 Postby cycloneye » Wed Sep 05, 2007 1:00 pm

LONG WAVELENGTH TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W S OF 23N MOVING W
NEAR 20 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN STRUCTURE SINCE MOVING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST WITH ABOUT A 15
DEG LONGITUDE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING. THE WEAK LOW
THAT WAS STATIONARY ALONG 40W FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS BEEN
DRAWN E INTO THE WAVE'S ROTATION AND IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 12N...ANALYZED 1013 MB. WHILE THE SATELLITE
PRESENTATION OF THIS WAVE IS IMPRESSIVELY LARGE AND WELL
DEFINED...DEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO
THE INTERSECTION OF THE ITCZ.

$$
CANGIALOSI



2 PM discussion.
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