Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions

[cpdaman]

ahh wxman 57 let's talk development/intensity

do you think the Ull will play an important role in the storms development and how do you think it may?

[wxman57]

ahh wxman 57 let's talk development/intensity

do you think the Ull will play an important role in the storms development and how do you think it may?

May well enhance outflow once it weakens and separates from the disturbances (depression). I think this could reach Cat 2-3 before it threatens the Carolinas (may not make landfall, won't be sure for a few days yet).

[LarryWx]

It appears to have stalled on latest satellite loops.

The furthest east point remains very important. Personally, I'd like to see a couple more hours of looping vis. photos before I can be confident this has actually stalled. The floater currently goes through 19:45 Z. Up until about 18:45 Z, it was still moving ENE at a decent clip per my eyes. Since then, it appears to have possibly slowed or stopped, but I'm not yet sure. Regardless, it is already as far east as ~70.3 W, which itself is a good bit further east than the furthest east on almost all 12Z global model runs outside of the GFS and GFDL. IF (still a big if imho) it has reached its furthest east position, then the 12Z GFS's furthest east point of 70.0 W will look excellent though the GFDL's 69.3 W would be too far east.

[deltadog03]

I still think synoptically the EURO has done a far better job in the tropics than the gfs has done this season. Euro is a bit to far west in the intial, however, I wonder If the ridge will come in a bit stronger and longer and thats why the euro is the furthest west.

[jrod]

That would be a bit ironic if the same ULL that has impeded development, helps development later on. My guess is based on the models trending too far north all season landfall will be a bit further south than the guidance suggests(possibly a poor hypothesis given where this storm is vs the monsters).

Now I will be glued to the computer once again checking for each new satellite image.

[deltadog03]

Someone said we **could** see dual outflow channels set up. Now, that would be something to see. The ULL very well may vent the cyclone.

[WindRunner]

I still think synoptically the EURO has done a far better job in the tropics than the gfs has done this season. Euro is a bit to far west in the intial, however, I wonder If the ridge will come in a bit stronger and longer and thats why the euro is the furthest west.

That's typically true . . . as long as you don't pay too much attention to the specifics of strength, the EC will do great. Just take each large-scale feature with a +/-4mb margin of error (at least in North America) and you'll do fiine . . .

[HURAKAN]

You can cut the tension with a knife!!!

[cycloneye]

You can cut the tension with a knife!!!

Yes.Many of us are refreshing the NHC site.

[Air Force Met]

right now, I would NOT upgrade if it were my call

I want just a little more separation from the old frontal system first... maybe tomorrow morning

I agree. I wouldn't upgrade it either...for the same reasons. Still looks like a tadpole....it needs to lose its tail.

[CrazyC83]

I would guess there is some heated debate at the NHC right now.

[Brent]

I'm guessing no upgrade considering it's almost 5... TWO should be interesting I guess now.

[tolakram]

and the loop:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... ive_0.html

Still moving slowly to the north east.

[HURAKAN]

They should do a vote of confidence.

YES! I'm confident this is tropical

YES! I'm confident this is subtropical

NO! This is a tadpole!

[jasons2k]

I still think synoptically the EURO has done a far better job in the tropics than the gfs has done this season. Euro is a bit to far west in the intial, however, I wonder If the ridge will come in a bit stronger and longer and thats why the euro is the furthest west.

We need to all remember that the key phrase here is "in the tropics". Not to discount the Euro, but Dean/Felix were very similiar scenarios to each other in the lower latitudes/deep tropics. It was easy for the same model to score well with these.

This is different. This is a mid-lat system with different synoptics completely. The models will handle it differently.

[ConvergenceZone]

I would guess there is some heated debate at the NHC right now.

Hehe, I can imagine them sitting around a table like on Crossfire on CNN....

[CrazyC83]

I would guess there is some heated debate at the NHC right now.

Hehe, I can imagine them sitting around a table like on Crossfire on CNN....

This seems to have a low warm core (the 23-25C readings earlier) but cools down significantly at flight level...still I would classify it as tropical considering what similar storms recently have been like.

[Steve]

>>That's what JB was saying this morning. Similar pattern.

I don't pay for that service, nor do I have pirate access to it, but he taught me that stuff. I'll be forever grateful to him for the knowledge imparted to the lay folks among us.



Steve

[HurricaneBelle]

I would guess there is some heated debate at the NHC right now.

Hehe, I can imagine them sitting around a table like on Crossfire on CNN....

Would be nice if they had video of the in-house Ivan II debate:

AFTER CONSIDERABLE AND SOMETIMES ANIMATED IN-HOUSE DISCUSSION OF THE
DEMISE OF IVAN...IN THE MIDST OF A LOW-PRESSURE AND SURFACE FRONTAL
SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER HAS DECIDED TO CALL THE TROPICAL CYCLONE NOW OVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVAN. WHILE DEBATE WILL SURELY
CONTINUE HERE AND ELSEWHERE...THIS DECISION WAS BASED PRIMARILY ON
THE REASONABLE CONTINUITY OBSERVED IN THE ANALYSIS OF THE SURFACE
AND LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.

"Sometimes animated"? Heh. Makes me think of the old SNL Point/Counterpoint - I can hear it now: "Avila, you ignorant slut".

[MiamiensisWx]

Interestingly, the latest early cycle track guidance lists the official TPC track (black line). The designation remains 99L (per NRL), but this trend may signal an upgrade. It initializes the system at 30 kts (35 mph).

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

You should click on the first frame. A special tropical disturbance statement could arrive within the next 45 minutes.