Wave midway between Africa and Lesser Antilles next in Line

[canegrl04]

If this does form it will probably be north of 15 degrees, and not follow the dean/felix southern tracks.

More possible a threat to the US.What concerns me the most are the virgin waters in the GOM.Any tropical system getting in there have a great shot at becoming a strong major 'cane

[punkyg]

This wave has a low pressure center with it right? and it absorbed ex 98L right? so do you think this area will develop. I do, but i wonder will it stop at 40W like ex 98L did.

[Gustywind]

Yeah i have more confidence on a slow developpement of this area punkyg, dry air has decreased significantly:lol: as we can see the saharan air layer....
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... split.html
Upper levels seems quite favorable on a futur trip, and better than ex98L:spam:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... m7sht.html
So at near term 24h-48 hours assuming all this little factors... a small window can open, as we're entering the peak of the season right now:cheesy:
Keep in mind that ANY WAVES at ANY TIME remaind all the time suspicious in September

[punkyg]

So far in this wave has kept its convection although its not as intense as earlier. i wanna see how it looks overnight into tomorrow. maybe this will start showing signs of development.

[Blown Away]

How does the area near 10N/35W not get mentioned in the tropical outlook?

[fasterdisaster]

How does the area near 10N/35W not get mentioned in the tropical outlook?

Because it looks like crap

[Zardoz]

How does the area near 10N/35W not get mentioned in the tropical outlook?

Because it looks like crap

Looks grim:



Still a little chance of something coming of it, I suppose:

[KWT]

Yeah there doesn't really look like anythnig of note out there right now to be honest, some ITCZ convection and a few small blobs between 15-20N but nothing that looks like its going to develop anytime soon if at all.

[Brent]

Next!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Its dead move along now, nothing to see.

[deltadog03]

I will say it again. The eastern atlantic is all but dead the rest of the year, imho. There is just too many neg. factors right now. Once these waves get to around 60W then they might give it a go.

[flwxwatcher]

It will be interesting to see if this wave will be able to come to life once it gets past 60W. Just a gut feeling something may come of this wave next week.

[cycloneye]

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 24N41W 16N44W 6N43W MOVING W
15 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL SWIRL...FORMERLY AN INVEST AREA...WHICH WAS
NEAR THE LONGITUDE OF THE WAVE AXIS YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME HAS
ACTUALLY TRACKED E WITHIN THE WAVE'S ROTATION NOW CENTERED WELL
E NEAR 12N35W. ANOTHER WEAK SWIRL HAS FORMED CLOSER TO THE WAVE
AXIS LONGITUDE NEAR 14N42W. BOTH OF THESE LOWS ARE VERY WEAK AND
ARE NOT PRODUCING MUCH WEATHER. THE WAVE ITSELF REMAINS VERY
WELL DEFINED WITH A LARGE AREA OF PRONOUNCED TURNING IN THE LOW
LEVELS. DESPITE THE CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE APPEARANCE...SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY THE DRY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IT IS EMBEDDED IN.


$$
CANGIALOSI


I thought this was posted already but I see that it was not.Anyway,this is the 2 PM discussion of this wave from TPC.

[Meso]

Hmmm,maybe a mod can merge my original thread on this with this thread.

[cycloneye]

Hmmm,maybe a mod can merge my original thread on this with this thread.

Done

[boca]

Hmmm,maybe a mod can merge my original thread on this with this thread.

Done

I'm watching 18n and 48w the area is starting to flare up a bit from what it was before which was just stratus clouds.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/avn-l.jpg

[KWT]

The area around 40W 7N is flaring up quite nicely right now. Pretty far south but I'm guessing it is part of the wave from this thread. May need watching as I remember Felix became a system from a siimlar batch of convection like this...however if it doesn't pick up lattiude then its going to hit SA.