
Invest 99L:Off E Coast-Discussions
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- windstorm99
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Folks iam sorry but if you take a look at this WV pic you can see the dry air eating this thing for dinner.


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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
That dry air was there yesterday as well and we all know what most were saying...
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- brunota2003
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805 pm:
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHED OUT TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 66W-69W AND ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A NON-TROPICAL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 320 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA NEAR 30N70W...ANALYZED 1008 MB...HAS
GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE IN STRUCTURE. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
SW FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N78W. SATELLITE IMAGES
SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER AND
TSTMS ACTIVITY STRETCHED OUT TO THE NE OF THE LOW FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 66W-69W AND ALONG THE TRAILING TROUGH AXIS. LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE LOW HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE. MOST OF
THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY REMAINS EAST OF THE CENTER WHERE
WINDS TO NEAR GALE FORCE ARE OCCURRING. THE SYSTEM IS
INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY NOT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW
MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL
CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
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- windstorm99
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Whether on not it developes it looks horrible right now fighting shear and dry air.We'll see if theres anything left 2morrow.


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- vacanechaser
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
windstorm99 wrote:Folks iam sorry but if you take a look at this WV pic you can see the dry air eating this thing for dinner.
thats the upper trough digging in, it is possible going to cut off and create an upper low which should move on out and possibly help to ventilate the system... herd that from watkins earlier... lol... it is certainly digging and making its way south, so could be getting out soon.. looks like in the wide water vapor image that the ridge should start moving in too soon...
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html
can really see the high building eastward and sliding on down.
can really see the high building eastward and sliding on down.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t3/loop-ir2.html
Doesn't look worse or better to me, looks like diurnal min. You can still see the circulation and still see the convection hanging tight to the NE of the system. Youc an also see some additional clouds atarting to curve around the LLC. Once the shear reduces I think we'll see fairly quick development. The question is, and has always been, when will the shear back off.
Doesn't look worse or better to me, looks like diurnal min. You can still see the circulation and still see the convection hanging tight to the NE of the system. Youc an also see some additional clouds atarting to curve around the LLC. Once the shear reduces I think we'll see fairly quick development. The question is, and has always been, when will the shear back off.
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- AJC3
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Let's talk a bit about the current and forecast upper level pattern for a bit....
It's already pointed out by others that the upper air pattern over 99L is pretty ugly...for now.
There is a well defined mid to upper level trough to the west of 99L, with it's axis pretty much along 75W with a vort center around 29N. I had a look at the 12Z and 00Z PIREPS, which show upper winds on the east side of the trough (and consequently, over the top of 99L) have been running around 40-50 knots. So while conditions are fairly hostile over 99L due to a combination of strong UL wind shear and mid to upper level dry air associated with the trough, the global models are in pretty good agreement that the mid to upper level pattern will change quite a bit over the next 36 hours.
Currently the trough is sinking slowly toward the SSE, but is forecast to drop southward and perhaps a bit toward the SSW through Friday morning. As it does, the western nose of the ATLC ridge is forecast to rebuild westward toward 70W. Not only will H25 winds (and resultant wind shear) be decreasing over 99L, but in addition, the position of both the upper ridge and trough looks like it will create a favorable diffluent/divergent pattern over 99L.
Bottom line here is that 99L already has a fairly vigorous (though rather broad) circulation, and model guidance is suggesting that upper level conditions will become much more favorable for convection to build closer to its' center.
What would probably be a good idea is to monitor water vapor imagery, look at the upper level wind plots as well as streamline and vorticity analyses to see if the upper trough is evolving as forecast.
It's already pointed out by others that the upper air pattern over 99L is pretty ugly...for now.
There is a well defined mid to upper level trough to the west of 99L, with it's axis pretty much along 75W with a vort center around 29N. I had a look at the 12Z and 00Z PIREPS, which show upper winds on the east side of the trough (and consequently, over the top of 99L) have been running around 40-50 knots. So while conditions are fairly hostile over 99L due to a combination of strong UL wind shear and mid to upper level dry air associated with the trough, the global models are in pretty good agreement that the mid to upper level pattern will change quite a bit over the next 36 hours.
Currently the trough is sinking slowly toward the SSE, but is forecast to drop southward and perhaps a bit toward the SSW through Friday morning. As it does, the western nose of the ATLC ridge is forecast to rebuild westward toward 70W. Not only will H25 winds (and resultant wind shear) be decreasing over 99L, but in addition, the position of both the upper ridge and trough looks like it will create a favorable diffluent/divergent pattern over 99L.
Bottom line here is that 99L already has a fairly vigorous (though rather broad) circulation, and model guidance is suggesting that upper level conditions will become much more favorable for convection to build closer to its' center.
What would probably be a good idea is to monitor water vapor imagery, look at the upper level wind plots as well as streamline and vorticity analyses to see if the upper trough is evolving as forecast.
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Re: Re:
wxman57 wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:as I said, we can look forward to a full day of "it's dead" posts
None of the models even had this intensifying until late tomorrow and Friday
Exactly what I was thinking, Derek, as I read through pages 46-49 after coming home. The real development threat isn't until Friday and Saturday when shear relaxes.
I'll start...its dead and wont be back. I'll put one week posting moratorium on in it

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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
I think its about to start to get organize, notice th curve in the convection now just to the north.


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Re: Re:
dwg71 wrote:I'll start...it's dead and won't be back. I'll put a one week posting moratorium on in it, it won't get a name.
And if you're correct, it will mostly be because of...

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Re:
Cyclone1 wrote:99L is fine. Convection is just as displaced as it was at 4:30 EDT. I see very little change in organization.
You are right about the displaced part. In my on terms it looks as "crappy" now as it did this
morning and at 4:30pm EDT. Now that's not to say it won't finally organize into something significant but the question is how long can it hang on under this type of shear? It is what it is right now a very very sheared system hanging on for dear life. I still give a chance based on all of the model agreement but we've seen that in the past and guess what nothing formed. So we sit back and see what happens tonight and tomorrow. Just my 2 cents.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Extremecane wrote:I think its about to start to get organize, notice th curve in the convection now just to the north.
Your words did not match your image. It certainly doesn't look like it's starting to get organized. In fact, that image makes it look it's worst yet. The circulation is still there but it's being sheared pretty badly. If it survives, it probably won't get going till Friday.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Derek Ortt warned us we would have to see posts like this. I agree with him now. Windstorm, you need to trust the professionals. They do this for a living and the professionals are saying to expect a hurricane from 99l.windstorm99 wrote:Whether on not it developes it looks horrible right now fighting shear and dry air.We'll see if theres anything left 2morrow.
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Re: 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-5:30 PM TWO at page 47
Roswell_Atup wrote:it looks to me like tropical development is now unlikely... it would probably dissipate like 98L...
I don't think the people who may be effected by it share your dissapointment.

Last edited by Category 5 on Wed Sep 05, 2007 8:57 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
miamicanes177 wrote:Derek Ortt warned us we would have to see posts like this. I agree with him now. Windstorm, you need to trust the professionals. They do this for a living and the professionals are saying to expect a hurricane from 99l.windstorm99 wrote:Whether on not it developes it looks horrible right now fighting shear and dry air.We'll see if theres anything left 2morrow.
Unless they have a flux capacitor they dont know for sure, lets just wait and see.

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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
AJC3 wrote:Let's talk a bit about the current and forecast upper level pattern for a bit....
It's already pointed out by others that the upper air pattern over 99L is pretty ugly...for now.
There is a well defined mid to upper level trough to the west of 99L, with it's axis pretty much along 75W with a vort center around 29N. I had a look at the 12Z and 00Z PIREPS, which show upper winds on the east side of the trough (and consequently, over the top of 99L) have been running around 40-50 knots. So while conditions are fairly hostile over 99L due to a combination of strong UL wind shear and mid to upper level dry air associated with the trough, the global models are in pretty good agreement that the mid to upper level pattern will change quite a bit over the next 36 hours.
Currently the trough is sinking slowly toward the SSE, but is forecast to drop southward and perhaps a bit toward the SSW through Friday morning. As it does, the western nose of the ATLC ridge is forecast to rebuild westward toward 70W. Not only will H25 winds (and resultant wind shear) be decreasing over 99L, but in addition, the position of both the upper ridge and trough looks like it will create a favorable diffluent/divergent pattern over 99L.
Bottom line here is that 99L already has a fairly vigorous (though rather broad) circulation, and model guidance is suggesting that upper level conditions will become much more favorable for convection to build closer to its' center.
What would probably be a good idea is to monitor water vapor imagery, look at the upper level wind plots as well as streamline and vorticity analyses to see if the upper trough is evolving as forecast.
Great points...
What is happening right now is not unexpected at all. The interaction with the upper trough has been well forecast by the models.
The surface low is not going anywhere unless the shear continues at this rate for a couple of days. That is not forecast to happen.
If we wake up...and there is still 30 knots of shear and the surface low has slipped to 68W...and is still moving ENE...then the forecast idea may need to be revisited.
Chances are...the low will stall and start moving slowly westward by morning and the upper pattern will start to improve as ridging bulds in...and this will develop along the timeline noted by the models.
Thanks for the analysis...good stuff as usual.
MW
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- windstorm99
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Re: Invest 99L,Off U.S.E.Coast: Discussions-Analysis & Imagery
Models trending on keeping 99L of the coast...


Last edited by windstorm99 on Wed Sep 05, 2007 9:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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